Obama v. McCain

In the summer of 2008, Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, was set to contest the election against his Republican rival, John McCain.  For his part, McCain's campaign was hoping to attract disgruntled Clinton supporters to its fold.  Whether or not that effort would be successful was yet to be seen.  McCain also noted that voters would have a clear choice in the November 2008 presidential election.


Vice Presidential Options

Background:

With the primary election process completed in the United States and the presumptive presidential nominees of the two main parties chosen, attention turned to their possible running mates.

Republicans --

For Republican presumptive nominee John McCain, two former rivals were expected to factor highly on his list of possible picks for the position of vice president -- former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Huckabee could shore up the conservative evangelical base, which has had a thorny relationship with McCain, and he could also consolidate the southern states.  Romney, with his Michigan roots, could help make that state competitive; his ties with western states could also assist in that region.  Perhaps more importantly, Romney's business background could balance McCain's military credentials and admitted lack of expertise on economic matters.

Other options for McCain included four governors:  Sanford of South Carolina would be a safe choice likely to shore up the same base as Huckabee; Pawlenty of Minnesota could help turn that blue state red; Jindal of Louisiana would be the first Asian-American vice presidential candidate; Crist of Florida could ensure 27 very important electoral votes.

Other wild card options included several women: Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, former CEO Carly Fiorina, EBay head Meg Whitman and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  It should be noted, though, that Palin was embroiled in a political scandal in Alaska and so was regarded as a long shot possibility.  It was believed that any of these women could attract disgruntled female Hillary Clinton supporters to the McCain fold. As well, there was the newly emerging prospect of  United States trade representative Rob Portman of Ohio.

Democrats --

For Democratic presumptive nominee Barack Obama, the biggest question was: "Will he pick Hillary?"  That is to say, would Obama pick his former rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, as his vice presidential selection?  Some observers believed that this proposed "dream ticket" could advance party unity, which had been somewhat strained during the protracted and sometimes acrimonious primary battle.  Others, however,  suggested that Clinton's presence on the ticket would negate Obama's central theme of change.  Nevertheless, Clinton indicated her openness to taking the slot of Vice President in the interests of winning the White House in November 2008 in the days after Obama won the Democratic nomination; she later amended her position noting that she was not specifically seeking that position.  Clinton has enjoyed a strong base of support among women and working class voters; she also shows remarkable strength in key states such as Ohio and Florida.

Other than Clinton, two of Obama's close friends and female supporters -- Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Senator Claire McClaskill of Missouri -- may well be on Obama's list, especially if there is a need to secure the female vote or make the heartland states competitive.  One of Clinton's stalwarts, centrist Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, was also said to be considered and could well put his red state's electoral votes in play.

Individuals with strong military and foreign policy experience are expected to factor highly on Obama's list of considerations.  Among these are former Supreme Allied NATO Commander Wesley Clark, former Senator Sam Nunn and former rival Senator Joseph Biden whose position as the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has resulted in unquestionable expertise on these matters.  Clark and Nunn would make Arkansas and Georgia competitive respectively.

Another former rival that might have been on Obama's short list was  former Senator John Edwards.   While he has been down the vice presidential path before (unsuccessfully in 2004), he enjoyed high favorability ratings and polled remarkably well in 2008.  The unfortunate revelations about his personal life in mid-2008 undoubtedly ended any possibility of Edwards pursuing a political career in the foreseeable future. 

When it comes to putting key states into play, three popular Virginians have been mentioned frequently:  Governor Tim Kaine, former Governor (now running for Senate) Mark Warner, and current Senator Jim Webb.  Any one of the Virginia triad could help turn Virginia blue. Finally, in the wild card category, Republican Senator Chuck Hagel -- a harsh critic of the Iraq war -- has signaled his interest in teaming up with Obama.

Amplify or fill the gap?

In the weeks prior to Obama's announcement that Biden was chosen as his vice presidential selection, there was much speculation about the contenders on his hypothetical "short list." In fact, Obama's campaign had managed to remain tight-lipped about the selection process, thus suggesting that almost all media reports on the subject were reliant on questionable sources.  That said, there was some sense that Obama had narrowed his choices down to simpatico associates, such as Kaine and Sebelius, Clinton stalwart Bayh, as well as credentials-laden Biden.  Clinton, by contrast, did not appear to be a viable option, while a fairly unknown Democratic Congressman Chet Edwards, who has represented President Bush's Crawford district, was said to have been vetted.  Journalists were camping out at the houses of these prospects, searching for any clue as to who might be selected.  A visit to Kaine's office and a joint campaign appearance with Bayh led to wild speculation that either of these two men might be the eventual choice.  As conflict between Georgia and Russia broke out and the Georgian President requested Biden's influence, media pundits indicated that current events might boost the senator from Delaware's prospects.

Meanwhile, Obama's supporters waited with baited breath for their text messages and emails notifying them of his selection.  Would he select someone fresh and new on the Washington scene, such as Kaine or Sebelius, to amplify his "change" theme?  Or would he choose someone, such as Biden, whose gravitas and experience, could fill a perceived gap and  ease the minds of some Democratic voters?

Obama picks Biden as running mate

In the days before announcing his selection Obama noted that he was looking for a vice president who was an independent thinker, who would challenge him on key issues, and act as a key advisor.  That description seemed to indicate that Obama would seek someone outside his comfort circle.

On Aug. 23, 2008, it was announced that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama, had chosen  Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware as his running mate.   News of Obama's selection was to be transmitted to the Democrat's supporters via text message and email before being released to the media, however, in the hours leading up to the official announcements, media reports indicated that Biden was Obama's likely choice.   The electronic messages went out a few hours later, the campaign website was updated, and the news became official.

Biden's selection ended hopes of the Obama-Clinton "dream team," however, his "blue collar" and Catholic background was expected to help Obama in these key constituencies.  Additionally, the Obama campaign may have been hoping that Biden's expertise on foreign policy, as well as his overall gravitas, would augment voters' attraction to Obama by assuaging any naysayers' doubts over his perceived lack of experience.  But Biden's unique personal history, as the senator with the least net personal wealth, and as a man who never actually moved to Washington D.C., preferring to take the train home each night to Delaware, also played into Obama's increasing concentration on the economic problems facing everyday working Americans.

Fellow Democrats, including Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Evan Bayh and Governor Kaine, as well as Republican cohorts Senator Lugar and Senator Hagel, responded enthusiastically to the news of Biden's selection.  But the McCain camp was quick to pounce of the selection of Biden by running an advertisement showing the Delaware senator's criticism of Obama during the contested primary when the two men were rivals.  McCain also released another advertisement actively courting angry Clinton supporters. 

Obama and Biden appeared for the first time together later on Aug. 23, 2008 at a massive rally in Springfield, Ill..  Obama characterized Biden as a "man with a distinguished record and a fundamental decency" and pointed out that while Biden was a six-term senator, Washington had not changed the core of the man.   Meanwhile, Biden immediately assumed the role of attack dog by condemning McCain's shift in policy stances and negative campaign tactics.

Going Forward

Obama's selection of Biden came only days before the start of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) convention in Denver, Colorado, which was set to last from August 25-28, 2008.  At the DNC convention, Obama and Biden were officially nominated as their party's presidential team.  In this way, Obama entered the history books as the first African American to ever win a major party's leadership nomination in the Western world.   Obama's acceptance address in front of a crowd of 85,000 at Invesco Field (locally known as "Mile High Stadium")  was the most viewed political events in recent history and came on the anniversary of Martin Luther King's historic "I have  Dream" speech.

The Dark Horse Selection

On August 29, 2008 -- McCain's 72nd birthday and the notorious anniversary of Hurricane Katrina -- the presumptive Republican presidential nominee was expected to make his own announcement for the vice presidency. 

Two of the McCain's aides anonymously leaked to the media that their boss was moving toward Romney as his final pick.  Other insiders noted that Obama's selection of Biden meant that someone as inexperienced as Pawlenty could no longer be considered, while still others suggested that McCain might want to attract disgruntled Clinton supporters by selecting one of the female prospects.  McCain and his new running mate were expected to travel to Minneapolis-St.Paul in Minnesota to commence the Republican National Committee (RNC) Convention  there.

In the wee hours of August 29, 2008, media speculation arose that both of the two Republican front runners for the vice presidency -- Romney and Pawlenty -- were no longer being considered.  Suggestions of moderate selections, such as Independent Joe Lieberman and Governor Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania, had already been squashed since their pro-choice positions were deemed unacceptable to the religious and social conservatives.  Presumably, a female selection, such as Kay Bailey Hutchison, who was also pro-choice in stance, would also be unlikely.  Finally, it was announced that the Republican presumptive nominee, John McCain, had chosen a relative unknown,  Alaska Governor Sarah Palin,  as his selection for vice president ahead of the RNC convention.

The selection of Palin appeared to leave most circles - political and media included -- in a state of shock.  However, the conservative and religious base of the Republican Party quickly applauded the selection of Palin, whose hard-line views appeared to be harmonious with their own.  Indeed, religious and social conservatives  had little to quibble with Palin's stances against abortion in any circumstances, including rape and incest, her views against birth control, and strong evangelical beliefs.  Palin's choice to have her fifth child, who suffered from Down's Syndrome, has been, in fact, been viewed as heroic by those on the religious right.  Meanwhile, economic conservatives embraced  her support for more drilling, including in the Alaska Wildlife Reserve.  Republican surrogates quickly pointed to Palin's folksy appeal as a former beauty contestant, a mother of five  who had served as the president of the Parent Teachers' Association, and as a woman who hunted, fished, and regularly made moose burgers.  Perhaps most importantly, she sported the distinction of being the most popular governor in the United States, according to surveys.

During his formal announcement at a rally in Ohio, McCain said that he had selected Palin because of her reform agenda, saying "She's exactly who I need, who this country needs, to help me fight to turn the same old Washington politics on its head."  McCain also described Palin  as "his soulmate."  But Democrats and other critics characterized the selection as a "desperate Hail Mary pass" by a man who knew that he was unlikely to win by continuing along the current path.  They also railed at her relative lack of credentials as a mayor of a tiny Alaskan town that she had guided into $20 million in debt, and her short two year tenure as a  governor of a sparsely-populated state who was facing an abuse of power investigation.  The drama surrounding McCain’s selection was not likely to end quickly, what with Palin acknowledging that her 17 years old daughter was pregnant.

At first, analysts suggested that McCain's selection of Palin was intended to peel off disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters. But Palin's opposition to reproductive rights, her stance against equal pay for equal work, as well as her position against universal health care, were not likely to attract voters of Hillary Clinton who had not yet committed to Obama.  Then, the rationale shifted to McCain's attempt to shore up the conservative and religious base of the party -- a tactic that had helped Bush win the 2004 presidential election in key swing states like Ohio. 

While McCain's  choice was deemed a "high risk/high reward" maneuver, on the eve of his own party's convention, he managed to invigorate his campaign, revitalize the Republican base, and change the narrative from one centering on Obama's historic acceptance speech and successful convention. At the same time, the RNC convention's schedule was expected to be somewhat compromised by the public's attention on Hurricane Gustav, which was headed to the state of Louisiana three years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the city of New Orleans.  That said, the Palin's strong speech at the convention appeared to boost the Republicans' prospects in September 2008.  


Update on United States General Elections

Soon after the Republican National Convention, the Republican presidential ticket had essentially erased any gains made by their Democratic counterparts and were even advancing a small lead in some polls.  In this way, two months before the election, the presidential race was a dead heat.

However,  just weeks later,  with bad publicity for the Republican vice presidential nominee due to the "Troopergate" scandal and an embarrassing interview on CBS, a collapsing economy, and strong debate performances by Obama and Biden, the Democratic ticket was returning to a position of strength in the polls.

Of particular significance was the looming credit crisis, which threatened to financial regime of the country and precipitated a government bail-out package costing $700 billion.  The situation caused public outrage and heightened already-high anxieties about the economy.  The situation had political implications and was  met with differing feedback from the two presidential contenders looking to succeed President Bush. 

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama appeared to acknowledge the potential global financial implications.  He, like Congressional Democrats, placed the blame for the credit crisis squarely on Republicans, the Bush administration and the lack of regulation, but he also issued cautious support for the crafting of a compromise solution.  Obama demanded that any rescue package would have to contain specific amendments, ensuring transparency, accountability, greater oversight, taxpayer equity upside, as well as relief for homeowners in trouble.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain was on the record saying repeatedly that the "fundamentals of the economy" were solid. But by Sept.  24, 2008,  McCain was expressing alarm that the country could plunge into a depression within days without immediate action.  To that end, he announced he was "suspending" his campaign and going to Washington D.C., to try to help resolve the situation.   McCain also said he would not attend the scheduled presidential debate unless there was an agreement on the rescue package.  The situation resulted in sharp criticism from leading Democrats, such as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who noted that all the relevant players on finance and banking committees in both congressional chambers were already working long hours to reach an agreement.  Obama echoed a similar note, expressing reticence about injecting presidential politics into the  crisis.  For his part, McCain later announced that he would debate since he could monitor the financial situation remotely. 


The Presidential Debates

The first presidential debate between Republican nominee John McCain and Democratic nominee Barack Obama, took place at the close of September 2008.  According to polling data taken after the debate, the Democrat appeared to have won against his Republican rival.  Analysts said that Obama held his own against McCain in the area of foreign relations, where the Republican was supposed to have held a much-vaunted advantage.  As well, Obama was viewed as more conversant on economic issues at a time when economic anxieties are high, perhaps aiding the perception that he won the debate.

A week later,  the vice presidential debate between Republican nominee Sarah Palin and Democratic nominee Joseph Biden ensued. Palin exceeded expectations in her debate against Biden, which followed on the heels of a series of interviews on CBS News in which she fared poorly on a vast variety of issues ranging from dealing with the credit crisis to foreign policy credentials.  In the debate, she was able to showcase greater facility for the subject matter although not sufficiently to beat credentials-laden Biden in public opinion.  Nevertheless, post-debate polling showed that Biden had scored a decisive victory against Palin.

A third debate, in the town hall style, was set for Oct. 7, 2008 between McCain and Obama and promised to be far more contentious.  At issue were accusations by the McCain-Palin team that Obama had associations with shady characters, such as William Ayers, who was involved in an act of domestic terrorism when Obama was a child.  This claim was countered by the Obama-Biden camp in a video showcasing McCain's spurious dealings involving the infamous Keating 5 scandal that occurred during the savings and loans crisis.  The promise of fireworks was not realized  and a discussion of foreign and domestic issues ensued instead, peppered with occasional frostiness by McCain toward Obama.  The townhall format, which was supposed to favor McCain, did little to inhibit Obama.  Post-debate polls showed that the Democrat was viewed as having won the debate handily.

The final debate between the two presidential contenders was set for Oct. 15, 2008.  In the days leading up to that debate, the Ayers controversy continued to dominate the air waves, albeit with little effect in the polls that showed the Democrat leading the Republican.  In this debate, McCain aggressively argued against Obama in area ranging from policy, to character and, of course, experience.  As before, Obama stoically made his case and was rewarded, as before, with positive feedback in post-debate polls.  In this way, the debates did little to break Obama's momentum and left McCain trying to make up ground less than a month before election day.


Toward Election Day

Following the debates, there was increasing rancor over the tone of Republican rallies, in which Republican supporters were heard screaming incendiary attacks against Obama.  Media outlets recorded supporters of McCain and Palin accusing Obama of being a terrorist and, in at least one case, the words "Kill Him" were registered. As well,  leading Republicans, such as Representative LaHood of Illinois, sought to distance themselves and called for more civil discourse.    Christopher Buckley -- the son of conservative icon William Buckley, said that he was endorsing Obama.  Perhaps most importantly, McCain himself countered his own supporters at rallies, sometimes even earning negative feedback  as a result.

Meanwhile, an abuse of power investigation in Alaska on Palin came to a close on Oct. 10, 2008 and found that the Alaska governor had abused her power in a case that had come to be known as "Troopergate."  Palin, however, gained more attention as the target of  spoofs and jokes on late night talk shows.  With an eye on easing her controversial image, she was the guest on the comedy show Saturday Night Live on October 18, 2008.

With two weeks to go before election day in the United States, the two presidential rivals were trading barbs over their respective tax plans. McCain characterized Obama's tax cut plan for the middle class as a "government giveaway" and hinted at socialism during a radio address.   McCain was also looking to exploit a statement made by Obama in a conversation with a voter, later referred to as "Joe the Plumber," that he would "spread the wealth around" in reference to the Democrat's progressive taxation scheme.  McCain suggested that the statement was proof of Obama's socialistic tendencies.  However, this argument was somewhat undercut by the revelation that the Republican Party had spent $150,000 on clothing for Palin, thus contradicting the campaign's advocacy on behalf of "everyday people such as "Joe the Plumber."

For his part, Obama addressed a crowd of more than 100,000 in St. Louis and criticized McCain for wanting too ease the tax burden of already-wealthy corporations.  He continued to press his argument in favor of middle class economic relief, which was resonating with people anxious about the poor health of the economy.  He also continued to link McCain with the highly unpopular Bush administration, relentlessly drawing attention to McCain's voting record that was supportive of the president's agenda 90 percent of the time.  He also warned that in a time of economic crisis, all of his proposals could not be achieved immediately.

Obama's prospects were likely boosted by the endorsement of former Secretary of State Colin Powell -- a well-respected Republican who served in several administrations.  Powell said he was endorsing Obama on the NBC television news show Meet the Press, drawing attention to the Democrat's steadiness at the time when the global financial crisis emerged, his internationalist  outlook, as well as the impact on the United States’ global image, should Obama win the presidency. Powell indicated that despite his long standing friendship with McCain, the choice of Palin as vice president had contributed to his decision to back Obama.  Powell also delivered a scathing rebuke of the current Republican Party, which he said had strayed too far to the right, and he condemned the McCain campaign's tactics as being divisive.   Obama said he was "deeply humbled" by Powell's support. McCain reacted by pointing out that he had the support of other former secretaries of state.

Nine days before election day, McCain was a guest on the renowned NBC television show, Meet the Press, hosted by Tom Brokaw.  There, McCain asserted that he was closing the gap with Obama despite much polling data showing the Democrat with a clear advantage.  McCain said, "Those polls have consistently shown me much farther behind than we actually are.  We're doing fine."  Indeed, he suggested that he could well end up the victor saying, "We've closed in the last week and if we continue this close in the next week you're going to be up very late on election night."   Speaking at  rallies later in the day in Iowa and Ohio, McCain echoed a similar theme and said that he would fight to win the presidency.

As the election of 2008 in the United States entered its final stretch, the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden was leading in the national polls against the Republican presidential ticket of  John McCain and Sarah Palin. 

Obama's  campaign, which posted a record monthly haul of $150 million, was enjoying a financial advantage, which translated into the Democrat massively outspending the Republican in television advertising. In order to be competitive on the airwaves, McCain's campaign decided to cut back on their ground efforts in the last days of the election campaign.   That said, Obama was winning the endorsement war by bagging the majority of newspaper endorsements -- including publications in Alaska and Arizona. 

Meanwhile, Obama continued to attract large crowds at rallies.  On the same day that McCain was interviewed on Meet the Press, Obama matched his Missouri record in Denver where he attracted another 100,000 in the audience.   Only days before election day, Obama had  another massive  rally in Ohio where rock star Bruce Springsteen -- a staunch Obama-Biden supporter -- played to a crowd numbering around 100,000.  McCain was not to be outdone with the start power.  He held his own Ohio rally with actor and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and also appeared on the NBC show Saturday Night Live.


State of the Race With (as of early Nov. 2008) 

At the time of writing, with two days to go until election day on November 4, 2008,  polls showed Obama-Biden  consistently leading McCain-Palin in the popular vote.  Fox News and Battleground showed the tightest win for the Democratic ticket of about three to  four percentage points over the Republican ticket.  The lead for the Democratic ticket was around a five-point race according to several daily trackers including  Rasmussen and Diago/Hotline.  At the same time, Zogby, the Pew Institute, Research 2000, Marist, CNN/Time and NBC/Wall Street Journal showed the Democratic ticket with a lead of about six to eight percent.  Finally, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and the last Gallup election poll all showed double digit leads for the Democratic ticket over the Republican counterparts.

The  race was more variable in  the electoral college with several states up for grabs.  Nevertheless, Obama-Biden appeared to be holding a modest advantage in the effort to secure 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Stated differently, Obama-Biden securely held the 252 electoral votes won by Kerry in 2004 and was leading in several key battleground states.  The Democrats' path to 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency could thusly be regarded as a far easier task than McCain-Palin, who were together playing defense in many states won by Bush in 2004.  Indeed, McCain-Palin had less than 200 electoral votes securely in the Republican  column and, thusly, were faced with a tough road ahead of them to capture 270 electoral votes needed for victory.


Presidential Race:  Polling Data

Republican Versus Democrat for the White House

Click here -- Rasmussen Research -- for latest statistics and head to head match ups among main Democratic candidates.

Click here -- Rasmussen Research -- for latest statistics and head to head match ups among main Republican candidates.

Other pollsters have shown similar results.  For the latest  national head to head match up information, click here --  Pollster -- to see a breakdown of the recent polling data.  As well, click here --  Real Clear Politics -- to see a summary of the trends. 

Note: These polls are national and do not reflect nuances of each state, and thus, the electoral college outcome.

It should also be noted that when no candidates are specified, and respondents in surveys have been asked to select either a generic Democratic or Republican candidate as their choice for president, the Democrats held on to their advantage.  

In late 2007, a poll by CBS News and the New York Times showed the generic Democratic candidate beating the generic Republican candidate handily 48 percent to 31 percent.

By early 2008,  generic Democrats were favored over generic Republicans on the presidential ticket, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.  In that survey,  respondents were asked if the presidential election were held today, would they cast their ballots for the Republican or Democratic candidate; 50 percent said they would vote for the Democrat and 32 percent said they would vote for the Republican.

By August 2008, according to Rasmussen, the generic ballot  was closer although it showed Democrats with a 10 percent advantage over Republicans.

Along the same vein, according to a survey by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, the Democratic Party was viewed positively by 55 percent of Americans as opposed to 41 percent viewing the Republican Party favorably.   

By the fall of 2008, these trends were largely unchanged. 

Note: See below for information regarding named candidates of the two main parties.


A Word on Polling: Assessments are compiled using polling data from a variety of both partisan and non-partisan pollsters and is subject to change at any time.  CountryWatch does not endorse any particular pollster.  CountryWatch urges users to review polling data critically, taking time to research the methodology of the polls cited,  rather than relying on the claims made in the popular media.  Of particular note is the methodology used by pollsters in likely voter models as compared with registered voter models,  in addition to weighting techniques. Users should feel free to contact the Editorial Department at CountryWatch if they require assistance in interpreting this data or to request source material.


Presidential Race: Indications for the General Election

Historic and Current Data:

March 2008 analysis on prospects for election of the two Democratic contenders – Clinton and Obama -- against GOP presumptive nominee, McCain on a state by state basis (electoral college): --

In early March 2008, data from states across the country showed that either Clinton or Obama could beat McCain; however, there were more pathways available to Obama, and who ultimately won certain key states by larger margins, based on the current data.  After the Ohio primary, however, Clinton was showing strength and looked poised to win the most convincing victory with this key state in her column.  

Subsequently (as of April 2008), however, McCain was showing strength against either Clinton or Obama, presumably due to his standing as the presumptive GOP nominee while the two Democrats were carrying on an acrimonious contest.  

By May 2008, Clinton was performing strongly in the primary contest against Obama and while she trailed him in popularity among Democrats, she was polling strongly against McCain in general election match ups.  Indeed, she was shown to be carrying a fairly consistent lead against McCain.  For his part, Obama was shown to be running neck and neck against McCain in general election match ups.

In  June 2008,  with the Democratic contest now closing, polls showed McCain and Obama -- the two presidential nominees -- running competitively against one another.  Most data showed McCain even or slightly behind Obama in head to head match ups. 

By July 2008, Obama was advancing a lead over McCain with some polls showing health advantages for the Democratic presumptive nominee.  

But a spate of negative advertisement by the McCain camp in August appeared to have paid dividends because the race moved back into competitive territory.   Both Obama and McCain were running neck and neck with one another. 

Would the selection of running mates, the Democratic and Republican conventions, and the formal nomination processes would  yield positive movement for either candidate?

In fact, Obama advanced a healthy lead of close to 10 points during the Democratic convention, but that bounce quickly receded after McCain made his selection of vice president, followed by the Republican convention.  McCain then enjoyed a modest bounce of his own.  But by September 7, 2008, the race was a dead heat.

Weeks later, with bad publicity for the Republican vice presidential nominee due to the "Troopergate" scandal and an embarrassing interview on CBS, a collapsing economy, and strong debate performances by Obama and Biden, the Democratic ticket was advancing a  lead in the polls one month ahead of election day in both the popular vote and in key battleground states.

With one week to go to election day, the Democratic nominee, Obama, was holding on to a clear and convincing lead against the Republican nominee, McCain, according to most -- although not all -- polls.

Finally, as aforementioned, with two days to go until election day on November 4, 2008,  polls showed Obama consistently leading McCain in the popular vote with a range from as little as a few percentage points to double digits, according to survey data from a wide array of polling institutions.    The  race was more variable in  the electoral college with several states up for grabs.  Nevertheless, Obama appeared to be holding a modest advantage in the effort to secure 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.


Electoral College Calculation

The following calculations of the electoral votes (EV) in the Electoral College of the United States of America are based on recent polling from a variety of sources when available, or on the basis of Election 2004 results when current polling data is unavailable.  Decisions regarding the allocation of electoral votes to states have also considered current and historic voting trends in respective states.  Nevertheless, the placement of each state’s electoral count into one of the two main candidate’s column is subject to change on the basis of new polling data, resulting in changes to the electoral count.  Calculations also do not include states determined to be “toss up” territory. 

By “toss up," CountryWatch refers to states for which polling results are either significantly within the margin of error, or, states where the polling is volatile and swings from one candidate to the next but by only a few percentage points.  Some states which might seem competitive on the basis of the numbers could easily fall into this category, however, they have been weighed against historical trends and the nature of the electorate (leaning either Democratic or Republican). 

Note that the final calculations in the electoral count and distribution of states will be affected by the recent realignment of electoral votes consistent with demographic shifts. 

 

A Word on Polling: Assessments are compiled using polling data from a variety of both partisan and non-partisan pollsters and is subject to change at any time.  CountryWatch does not endorse any particular pollster.  CountryWatch urges users to review polling data critically, taking time to research the methodology of the polls cited,  rather than relying on the claims made in the popular media.  Of particular note is the methodology used by pollsters in likely voter models as compared with registered voter models,  in addition to weighting techniques. Users should feel free to contact the Editorial Department at CountryWatch if they require assistance in interpreting this data or to request source material.


How do the battleground or "toss up" states affect the outcome of the election?

Following is a list of the key battleground states at stake, which will affect the outcome of the election.  Also included are lists of states currently attributed to either candidate where the leads are fairly modest and could possibly shift to "toss up" territory.  Given the current number of electoral votes currently in the candidates' columns, the scorecard below also notes how many more electoral votes are needed for victory.

Commentary on battleground states:

State of the Presidential Race--

With two days to go until election day,  polls showed Obama-Biden  consistently leading McCain-Palin in the popular vote.  Fox News and Battleground showed the tightest win for the Democratic ticket of about three to four percentage points over the Republican ticket.  The lead for the Democratic ticket was around a five-point race according to several daily trackers including  Rasmussen and Diago/Hotline.  Zogby, the Pew Institute, Research 2000, Marist, CNN/Time and NBC/Wall Street Journal showed the Democratic ticket with a lead of about six to eight percent.  At the same time, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and the final Gallup poll all showed double-digit leads for the Democratic ticket over the Republican counterparts. 

The  race was more variable in  the electoral college with several states up for grabs.  Nevertheless, Obama-Biden appeared to be holding a modest advantage in the effort to secure 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. 

Stated differently, Obama-Biden securely held the 252 electoral votes won by Kerry in 2004 and was leading in several key battleground states.  The Democrats' path to 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency could thusly be regarded as a far easier task than McCain-Palin, who were together playing defense in many states won by Bush in 2004.  Indeed, McCain-Palin had less than 200 electoral votes securely in the Republican  column and, thusly, were faced with a tough road ahead of them to capture 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

New Hampshire was won by Bush in 2000 and turned blue for Kerry in 2004.  In 2008,  it was thought to be competitive for both McCain-Palin and Obama-Biden.  On the verge of the election, though, it appeared that the Granite state would likely remain with the Democrats.

Michigan, a traditional battleground state,   voted Democratic in 2000 and 2004.  Early in the race, the McCain-Palin ticket was hoping to contest Michigan and shift it to the Republican column.  But economic woes have pushed Michigan in an increasingly Democratic direction and by October 2008, this state was likely to go even more strongly for the Democratic nominees than the last two elections.  Two days before the election, it was apparent that Obama-Biden would hold Michigan in the Democratic column.  

Other battlegrounds, Wisconsin and Minnesota, which narrowly voted Democratic in 2000 and 2004, were on McCain-Palin's radar early in the race.  However, these two states have solidified for Obama-Biden and were expected to reside in the Democratic column.

Normally, Pennsylvania, which voted Democratic in the last two elections, sits in the toss-up column as election day draws near, with  the Democrats pulling out a close victory at the end.  But 2008 was no normal year and in October 2008, the Obama-Biden ticket was sporting a healthy lead against McCain  in Pennsylvania.  With their pathway to the magic number of 270 severely compromised,  the McCain-Palin camp  said that Pennsylvania was at the top of its target list and launched a fierce offensive there in the weeks ahead of the election.  Two days before the election, McCain-Palin had cut into Obama-Biden's lead, narrowing the Democrats' advantage to single digits.  That said, barring some massive shift in the 24 hours before voters went to the polls, it was expected that Obama-Biden, like Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, would carry this swing state for the Democrats in 2008.

The traditional battleground states – Florida and Ohio --  remained in that category.  Although both states went Republican in 2000 and 2004, the Obama-Biden ticket was carrying out strong and competitive fights to the finish in both states.  Composite scores of recent polls showed the Democrats with leads in both battleground states.  That said, as election day drew near, some polls showed their advantage within the margin of error.  Another battleground, Missouri, was leaning Republican until October 2008.  New polling data suggested Obama-Biden was launching a strong offense in this state as well.  Two days ahead of the election, all three states remained in toss-up territory, with McCain-Palin especially anxious to hold them in the Republican fold. 

Iowa has had a more tumultuous voting record in recent times.  This state was won by Gore in 2000 and turned red for Bush in 2004; in 2008, the state that gave Obama his first primary victory was leaning clearly towards him in the general election as well.

Western terrain has been emerging as the new battleground  - New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.  All three were Republican states in 2004 but presented ripe opportunities for Obama-Biden in 2008.   The Democrats were advancing a healthy lead in New Mexico, a consistent advantage  in Colorado, and a slight lead in Nevada.  McCain's own Western roots in Arizona were not helping him in this region where the Obama-Biden ticket  was putting up a strong fight.  In fact, polls taken within a week of election day showed McCain  holding a shrinking lead over Obama in his own home state.  This resulted in the Obama-Biden campaign's last minute decision to purchase advertising in Arizona. 

Virginia has become another new battleground state in recent years.  Reliably red for Republicans for decades in presidential elections, the Obama-Biden ticket had been polling strongly against McCain-Palin here and  advancing a modest but consistent lead in the polls.  The Democrats were keen to turn this Republican stronghold blue.  On the verge of election day, this state leaned slightly toward Obama-Biden.

Another new battleground state was ruby red North Carolina, where Obama-Biden went from a small deficit in the polls a month before the election, to pulling even with only weeks to go.  The Democrats then moved into a small lead at a time when early voting had already begun.   Just before Nov.4, 2008, the McCain-Palin was fighting back and the race was  a dead heat to the finish.  As such, North Carolina was, perhaps, the most surprising battleground development.

Until recently,  Indiana was in the McCain column, but by October 2008,  Obama was launching a strong fight to the finish in this traditionally Republican state.  Based on historic trends, it was assumed that  McCain would ultimately carry this state, however, Obama's strong performance in the state that neighbors his home state of Illinois, augmented by favorable polling data,  meant that Indiana was another surprising battleground state along the lines of North Carolina.  On the verge of election day, this state was a dead heat, albeit with a slight Republican slant.

Blue collar West Virginia went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, and based on historic and demographic  trends, the McCain-Palin ticket was expected to carry the state in 2008.  However, Obama and Biden were running far more competitively than expected in Appalachian country.
 
North Dakota appeared to buck the trend and embrace Obama-Biden earlier in 2008.  But by the summer, it resorted to expectations and McCain-Palin had a steady lead here.  A month before the election and the Democrats were surging again and making this state competitive.  There was insufficient polling data to call it a trend, but the Obama-Biden campaign decided to spend some advertising money in North Dakota in the hopes of snatching this state from the Republicans.  Montana appeared to be moving in a similar direction and the Obama-Biden campaign decided to contest this mountain west red state as well.  Ultimately, both states were expected to end up in the Republican column but with tighter results that could have been anticipated months ago.

 Earlier in the campaign, Obama-Biden's camp said it would be competitive in Georgia.  But, as the general election campaign transpired,  not even Barr's presence on the ballot, which would take some votes away from McCain-Palin, was moving this state from red to blue.  Fast-forward to late October 2008 and  things had changed.   The Democrats were  trailing the Republicans only slightly in Georgia where early voting turnout was massive.  The Obama-Biden ticket was hoping for an upset while McCain and Palin were hoping to hold this state.


CountryWatch Outlook on Presidential Race --

CountryWatch forecasts that Barack Obama and Joseph Biden will win the presidential election in the United States decisively with no less than 291 electoral votes thanks to the Kerry coalition of states plus the following Bush states: Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada.  Obama-Biden could extend that lead further beyond the 300 electoral vote threshold, if they hold on to their polling advantages in Florida and Ohio.  Obama-Biden could approach landslide territory should they additionally secure victories in any of these states: North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana.  Further encroachment deep into Republican territory could signal a political realignment unseen in recent times. 

For their parts, John McCain and Sarah Palin could yet secure the presidency if turnout in battleground states is lower than anticipated.  Low voter turnout could prevent Obama-Biden from winning some of the  aforementioned battleground states where they are expected to perform well.  A surprise victory for the Republicans in Pennsylvania would augur an unanticipated political "comeback" for the McCain-Palin ticket. Also possible is the so-called "Bradley" effect in which polling data overestimates support of a black candidate due to inaccurate reporting of preferences to pollsters.   Shifts in key demographic groups on election day could plausibly change the outcome of the election, however, a McCain-Palin victory at this time would be regarded as a "long -shot" proposition.

Thus, assuming polling data is credible and turnout is high for this historic election, CountryWatch expects Barack Obama to become the 44th president of the United States.  In so doing, he will also make history as the first African-American to win the presidency of the United States and become the de facto leader of the free world.


Editor's Note:  This Electoral College calculation has been compiled by Dr. Denise Youngblood Coleman, Editor-in-Chief, CountryWatch Inc.  Contact the editorial department at CountryWatch if you have questions about this report, require further information, or want to inquire about source materials, polling data or methodology.  Please do not cite or distribute without proper attribution and please do not publish without prior written consent.


Election Day in the United States

Summary --

As the election of 2008 in the United States entered its final stretch, the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joseph Biden was leading in the national polls against the Republican presidential ticket of  John McCain and Sarah Palin.  In Congress, Republicans were on the defense trying to protect the seats they held in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while Democrats were on the offensive and seeking to make further gains in both congressional chambers.

Heavy  voter turnout marked Election Day -- November 4, 2008 -- as Americans cast their ballots for a new president.  As polls closed on the west coast of the United States, it was clear that Barack Obama would carry enough states to cross the 270 electoral vote threshold  needed to win the presidency of the United States.  In this way, he made history by becoming the first African American to win that post.  As the votes continued to be counted from state to state, it was clear that he was on track for a landslide victory.

Indeed, the Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden decisively carried the Kerry coalition of states, including  the highly coveted  state of Pennsylvania, as well as the following Bush states: Ohio, Florida, Virginia,  Iowa, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado and New Mexico, Nevada, and one congressional district in Nebraska, for a landslide victory of 365 electoral votes.   McCain-Palin carried only 173 electoral votes.

In terms of the popular vote, President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joseph Biden on the Democratic ticket won a decisive victory over their Republican counterparts John McCain and Sarah Palin on Nov. 4, 2008 with 52.7 percent of the vote share to 45.9 percent.  Obama-Biden also garnered a record popular vote count of close to 67 million with McCain-Palin acquiring 58 million.

Victory –

Obama-Biden's stunning slate of victories in most of the key battleground states was proof that the country was in the mood for change; it also presented evidence that the American political landscape was in a state of transformation.

With the outcome uncontestable, John McCain conceded defeat graciously from the Biltmore Hotel grounds in his home state of Arizona.  In his speech, he acknowledged the historic candidacy of Obama and expressed congratulations and goodwill to his rival.

Soon after, President-Elect Obama delivered a short but moving victory speech at Grant Park in Chicago amidst an audience of more than 100,000.  President-Elect Obama emphasized the people-powered campaign that had propelled him toward his historic victory and acknowledged that a tough road lay ahead.  He also paid homage to McCain's service to the country, and he struck a conciliatory note as he called for Democrats and Republicans to come together for the good of the nation.  Tacitly acknowledging that his speech was addressing a transnational audience, President-Elect Obama  indicated that his presidency would deal strongly  with enemies, but that it  would foreground diplomacy and goodwill in the international arena.

Key excerpt of President-Elect Obama's victory speech –

The road ahead will be long.  Our climb will be steep.  We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there.  I promise you – we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts.  There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem.  But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face.  I will listen to you, especially when we disagree.  And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years – block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

BARACK OBAMA MAKES HISTORY:  Obama  inaugurated as 44th president of the United States; shatters barriers as first African-American president of the United States

Summary

On Jan. 20, 2009, Barack Obama was inaugurated into office as the 44th president of the United States.  Obama  made history by becoming the first African-American president of the United States.  Joe Biden was also sworn into office as the nation's vice president. 

Obama pays homage to Lincoln on historic train trip from Philadelphia to Washington D.C.

On Jan. 17, 2009, United States President-Elect Barack Obama paid homage to Abraham Lincoln.  Like the great president who presided over the United States at a time of great peril -- the Civil War -- Obama has also called the state of Illinois home.  Obama is said to have been greatly influenced by Lincoln and has endeavored to approach governing with the help of "a team of rivals," much like Lincoln.

Retracing the steps of Lincoln, Obama traveled by train from the birthplace of the republic in Philadelphia to the nation's capital in Washington, D.C.  The train stopped in Wilmington, Delaware -- the home state of the vice president -- to pick up Vice President-Elect Joe Biden.  The journey, which took the better part of the day, was met by cheering crowds as the train came to a slow roll at various towns along the way. 

Just before he boarded the 80-year old train in Philadelphia, Obama said, "Let's make sure this election is not the end of what we do to change America, but just the beginning."  He continued, "Let's seek a better world in our time."

At a brief stop in Baltimore, Obama, Biden and their spouses waved to jubilant supporters.  Obama also called for national unity at a time when the nation was facing serious challenges. 

Late in the day, the train came to a stop at Union Station in Washington, D.C., only a short distance from the venue where Obama would take the oath of office as the 44th president of the United States.

Obama talks of hope for the future at a pre-inauguration rally at the Lincoln Memorial

Various renowned musical artists, including U2, James Taylor, Beyonce and John Legend, participated in a concert at a pre-inauguration rally in Washington D.C. on Jan. 18, 2009.  The concert, which was titled "We are One," took place in a celebratory atmosphere.

Standing on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, President-Elect Obama noted the severity of the challenges facing the country, including two wars and an economic crisis.  But he also expressed optimism for the future and assured the crowds of ecstatic supporters that "anything is possible in America." 

Recalling the aspirations of the founding fathers, Obama said, "Despite the enormity of the task that lies ahead - I stand here today as hopeful as ever that the United States of America will endure - that the dream of our founders will live on in our time."

Obama's victory an effect of Martin Luther King's dream

Jan. 19, 2009, was celebrated as a national holiday in the United States as Martin Luther King Day.  Obama, Biden and their families called on fellow Americans to use the day that commemorates the civil rights leader in service to others. 

The timing of the Martin Luther King celebration just ahead of Obama's inauguration has been regarded as significant.  For many Americans, Obama's presidential victory symbolizes a consummation of Dr. King's vision of an inclusive America where all Americans have equal opportunity. 

Obama himself has acknowledged the unprecedented nature of his presidency by saying that he hoped future generations would not view the notion of an African American president as a rarity.
 
Obama and Biden inaugurated into office

The inauguration ceremony commenced on a cold January morning in Washington, D.C., with  Joe Biden being sworn into office with his wife Dr. Jill Biden by his side.  Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens issued the oath of office to the new vice president.   Then, Barack Obama was inaugurated into office, with his wife Michelle Obama by his side.  Chief Justice John Roberts issued the oath of office to the new president.

President Obama then offered his inauguration address.   Included in that address was a sobering assessment of the country's vast array of challenges,  along with confident reassurance that the American people would prevail, just as they have throughout the history of the American nation state.  Indeed, President Obama called on Americans to choose "hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord."

President Obama forthrightly declared that his administration would adhere to the rule of law and constitutionality -- a likely rebuke of the controversial measures taken by the outgoing Bush administration.  In a similarly critical tone, Obama decried the culture of greed, which he said had led to the current economic crisis; he called instead  for "a new era of responsibility."

President Obama also addressed the international community, declaring that the community of nations would have a friend in America, but that the United States would not hesitate to deal decisively with enemies who would do harm.   The speech additionally included a nod to science, a call for compassion for the rest of the world's inhabitants, and an acknowledgment of the American ideals "that all are equal, all are free and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness."

President Obama's inauguration was witnessed by between one and two million people in Washington D.C., as well as a national and international audience.  Following the inauguration, the Obamas and the Bidens traveled partially in a motorcade and occasionally on foot to the viewing station for the inaugural parade.  Along the way, they waved to throngs of jubilant supporters eager to witness history.

Editor's Note:

Barack Obama was inaugurated into office as the 44th president of the United States on the morning of Jan. 20, 2009. He placed his hand on the same bible used by Abraham Lincoln in 1861.  Justice John Roberts  administered the oath of office.

Ironically, the bible has constitutional symbolism in United States history. In 1857, Supreme Court Justice Roger Taney wrote, in the Dred Scott versus Sanford case, that African Americans could never become full citizens of the United States.  Indeed, using intemperate language, Taney asserted that African Americans were "beings of an inferior order, and altogether unfit to associate with the white race, either in social or  political relations, and so far inferior that they had no rights which the white man was bound to respect." It was a polemical court decision for which Abraham Lincoln expressed vociferous opposition.  Taney himself would administer the oath of office to Lincoln just a few short years later.

In this way, the inauguration of Barack Obama in 2009, less than 150 years later, is in some ways, a watershed moment in United States constitutional history, emanating as it does from  Lincoln's legacy.

Click on the following links  to get to other sections of the Special Election Report --  

1. The Road to the White House: Landscape and Issues

2.  Presidential Race: Presidential Primaries

3. Presidential Race: General Election

4. Congressional Elections: The Senate

5. Congressional Elections: The House of Representatives

6.  Governors Races