2. Presidential Race: The Presidential Primaries

Republic Primary Schedule:

Iowa-                                        Jan. 3
Wyoming --                              Jan. 5
New Hampshire                        Jan. 8
Michigan --                               Jan. 15
Nevada --                                 Jan. 19
South Carolina --                      Jan. 19
Florida --                                  Jan. 29

Super Tuesday*             Feb. 5
*Alabama, Alaska , Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado , Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts Minnesota, Missouri, Montana , New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia

Other February primaries * –
*Maine, Kansas Louisiana, Washington  Maryland, Virginia, Wisconsin, Washington D.C.

March primaries *-
*Hawaii Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas Mississippi

April primaries* –
*Pennsylvania

May primaries*–
*Indiana, North Carolina Wyoming (remaining) Nebraska Kentucky, Oregon

June primaries*–
*South Dakota

Unspecified -
Idaho, New Mexico


Democratic Primary Schedule:

Iowa-                             Jan. 3
New Hampshire             Jan. 8
Michigan --                    Jan. 15
Nevada --                      Jan. 19
South Carolina --           Jan. 26
Florida --                       Jan. 29
Super Tuesday*             Feb. 5

*Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Georgia Idaho Illinois Kansas Massachusetts Minnesota Missouri New Jersey New Mexico New York North Dakota Oklahoma Tennessee Utah

Other February primaries* –
*Louisiana Nebraska Washington Maine District of Columbia Maryland Virginia Wisconsin Hawaii U.S. Virgin islands

March primaries *-
*American Samoa Democrats Abroad Guam  Ohio Rhode Island Vermont Texas Wyoming Mississippi

April primaries* –
*Pennsylvania

May primaries * –
*Indiana North Carolina West Virginia Kentucky Oregon

June primaries* –
*Puerto Rico Montana South Dakota


(Primary Season) State of the race in the early states for the Republicans:

Polling data for Republicans in the following states is available by clicking on the following links --

Iowa

New Hampshire 

Michigan 

Nevada 

South Carolina

Florida

Super Tuesday

Post Super Tuesday


(Primary Season) State of the race at the national level for Republicans:

Polling data for Republicans at the national level is available by clicking on the following link --

National scene 

A Word on Polling: Assessments are compiled using polling data from a variety of both partisan and non-partisan pollsters and is subject to change at any time.  CountryWatch does not endorse any particular pollster.  CountryWatch urges users to review polling data critically, taking time to research the methodology of the polls cited,  rather than relying on the claims made in the popular media.  Of particular note is the methodology used by pollsters in likely voter models as compared with registered voter models,  in addition to weighting techniques. Users should feel free to contact the Editorial Department at CountryWatch if they require assistance in interpreting this data or to request source material.


(Primary Season) State of the race in the early states for the Democrats:

Polling data for Democrats in the following states is available by clicking on the following links --

Iowa

New Hampshire

Michigan

Nevada 

South Carolina

Florida

Super Tuesday

Post Super Tuesday


(Primary Season) State of the race at the national level for Democrats:

Polling data for Republicans at the national level is available by clicking on the following link --

National scene


A Word on Polling: Assessments are compiled using polling data from a variety of both partisan and non-partisan pollsters and is subject to change at any time.  CountryWatch does not endorse any particular pollster.  CountryWatch urges users to review polling data critically, taking time to research the methodology of the polls cited,  rather than relying on the claims made in the popular media.  Of particular note is the methodology used by pollsters in likely voter models as compared with registered voter models,  in addition to weighting techniques. Users should feel free to contact the Editorial Department at CountryWatch if they require assistance in interpreting this data or to request source material.


Presidential Race:  The Path to Winning the Nomination

Commentary: 

As noted above, on the Republican side of the partisan divide, Giuliani  had been the favorite to win the nomination based on his performance in national polls in 2007.  However, Giuliani's plan involved withstanding initial losses in Iowa and New Hampshire (not to mention Michigan), and then coming back to win or place in South Carolina, before “running the table” with victories in Florida and Super Tuesday.  This expectation, however, assumed that momentum for other candidates in the early primaries and caucuses would not be a factor.  Giuliani's strategy failed and a disappointing finish in Florida prompted him to withdraw and endorse McCain.

As of early 2008, Huckabee had won Iowa, showed third in New Hampshire, secured a second place finish in South Carolina and was polling well in Florida, much to the dismay of the Giuliani camp, no doubt.   Indeed, Huckabee’s increasing cachet, thanks to increasing national and state-based poll numbers, indicated that he had usurped Giuliani as the favorite by the start of 2008. But Huckabee's apex was temporary as McCain soon took that top spot from him.  His strong performance in southern states on Super Tuesday kept him in the GOP contest.

Meanwhile, Romney, who spent the most money in the early states garnered his first win in Michigan by holding off resurging McCain, who had  won  in New Hampshire and was now at the top of the national polls.  Romney then secured a second victory in Nevada.  These back to back victories, a subsequent victory at the Maine caucus, as well as his high delegate count, and his financial advantage, suggested that he would be regarded as a top contender in the Republican race.  But a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday resulted in his withdrawal from the GOP contest.

For his part, McCain, managed to hold off Huckabee and win South Carolina -- a victory of great cachet in the Republican nominating process.  He also won a victory over Romney in Florida.  Moreover, he was surging nationally.  In fact, polling data at the national level shown a strong preference for McCain since the start of 2008.  Giuliani was slipping from the top spot in national polls in late 2007 and was replaced temporarily by Huckabee, who was then  displaced by McCain.  Romney vaulted past Huckabee into the second place position nationally but was not able to break past McCain.   But Super Tuesday brought a reversal of fortune for Romney, resurgence for Huckabee and consolidation for McCain. 

After his slate of victories in February 2008, and despite Huckabee's post-Super Tuesday wins in Kansas and Louisiana, McCain was the  frontrunner in the Republican race.  Indeed,  as of March, 2008, McCain was the presumptive nominee of the GOP.

On the Democratic side of the partisan divide, Clinton had been the favorite to win the nomination until late 2007.  Since then, her poll numbers slipped in Iowa, which she eventually lost in early 2008, while her "firewall" eroded in the state of New Hampshire, followed by a diminishing advantage in South Carolina as well.  Meanwhile, Obama was surging in those very states, even winning Iowa as of early 2008.  Given her loss in Iowa and Obama's rising cachet, it was difficult to continue to classify Clinton as the favorite. But her surprise win in New Hampshire in defiance of the polls, followed by her victory in Nevada, made clear that she was still the one to beat on the Democratic side.   

Still, with Obama's solid lead in the polls in South Carolina,  as well as the fact that he actually won more delegates than Clinton in Nevada (despite her percentage advantage), he was still very much a top contender.  His landslide victory over Clinton in South Carolina only bolstered this view.  As such, it was not inconceivable that he could go on to Super Tuesday fortified and  competitive against Clinton in many Super Tuesday states. Obama was additionally helped by a number of key endorsements from leading Democrats and the fact that his national polling numbers were on the rise. 

With Edwards dropping out of the race in late January 2008, it was difficult to tell if Obama or Clinton would be the beneficiary at the polls on Super Tuesday. Clinton's big wins on both coasts and Obama's victories in more than a dozen states changed the dynamic so that both ended Super Tuesday in a virtual tie.   But in the races after Super Tuesday, Obama carried won sweeping and overwhelming victories.  Because Obama  momentum,  more than 10 consecutive victories and a lead in the delegate count, he was the effective Democratic frontrunner.  

Clinton took back momentum with wins in important states, such as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  However, Obama had already built a large cache of delegates, which continued to mount despite these losses.  As well, even as Clinton won landslide victories in blue collar enclaves like West Virginia and Kentucky, Obama was racking up his own victories in North Carolina and Oregon.  Indeed, with Obama capturing the majority of pledged delegates on May 20, 2008, it was hard to see how Clinton would be able to wrest the nomination from him.  The race would thusly be decided by superdelegates. 

The highly competitive race was reflected in the national polling numbers, which had consistently showed Clinton with a decisive, albeit decreasing, lead over the last several months.   In February 2008, however, some polls, such as Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post (released at the start of the month) showed that Clinton and Obama were moving into a statistical dead heat.  One poll by the Pew Institute in the same period showed Clinton maintaining her advantage, while Rasmussen showed Obama extending a lead over Clinton.  By March 2008, a host of issues made for grave volatility in the polls but by the close of the month, Obama was extending a lead over Clinton at the national level for the Democratic nomination.  By the close of April, Obama reversed this trend and by May 2008, the perception of Obama as the likely nominee was showing in the polls whoch had him at double digit advantages over Clinton. Perceived movement at the national level has normally been interpreted as movement across the board. 

Note: The developments during the primary season are detailed following.


Starting in Iowa 

January 3, 2008 saw Iowa voters meet at caucus locations across the state to select their preferred nominees for the two major political parties in the United States.  Candidates on the  Democratic and Republican side of the partisan divide had been campaigning in Iowa for months -- in some cases, such as Democrat John Edwards, even years.  The caucus system, quite different from typical primaries, required voters to actually show up at locations and hold steady for their chosen candidate. Nevertheless,  the straw poll secret ballot formula among Republicans was far less arcane than the Democratic caucus procedures. Polling data ahead of the Iowa caucuses  showed contradictory results, so  it was difficult to determine who would ultimately win between the top three Democratic candidates.

Iowa Results

The Des Moines Register poll lived up to its reputation and predicted the outcome on both sides of the partisan divide.  For the Republicans,  Huckabee enjoyed a strong win of 34.3 percent  -- indeed, by a wider margin than the poll forecast -- against Romney who had 25.3 percent.    Thompson had 13.4 percent, McCain had 13.1 percent, Paul had a solid 10 percent and Giuliani had 3.5 percent.

Entrance poll data for the Republicans showed that while Huckabee's victory was bolstered by evangelical voters, even those not defining themselves as such, and even among urban voters, Huckabee was able to gain support, ultimately moving him way ahead of Romney.  Republican voters also stated that values similar to their own -- presumably conservative values -- were significant determinants of whom they chose to support.

In his victory speech to cheering crowds in Des Moines, Huckabee said  "Tonight what we have seen is a new day in American politics.  Tonight we proved that American politics is still in the hands of people like you."  Commentators noted that Huckabee's success at the polls may have been somewhat driven by his ability to connect in an intimate way with an audience, complete with a folksy and populist style.

For the Democratic candidates, Obama won a decisive victory with 37.6 percent ahead of Edwards and Clinton who were in a tight race for second place, both with around 30 percent.   Edwards was eventually able to eke out a one percent victory over Clinton at the percentage level (Edwards had 29.7 percent and Clinton had 29.5 percent), however, she gained one more delegate as a result of the complex caucus system of calculation. Edwards' result -- better than expected among some observers -- was attributable to the fact that he gained many "second choice" votes.  No other Democrat moved into double digits, although Richardson placed fourth with 2.1 percent.

Obama benefitted from the fact that first time voters and youth voters broke decisively (57 percent)  in his favor.  Even among women, who were thought to be advantageous  to Clinton, Obama was able to gain a significant portion of their vote share.  As well, independent voters who decided to vote in the Democratic caucus appeared to favor Obama.  The combination of youth, female and independent voters appeared to have contributed to the higher overall percent of support achieved by Obama. That said, among registered Democratic voters, Obama had only a one percent advantage over Clinton.

Entrance poll data for the Democrats showed that change was the overriding theme motivating that party's voters -- thus, moving Obama into the ascendant position.  Moreover, voters noted that change more than experience determined their choice of candidate, thus the Obama advantage over Clinton.

The change theme factored highly in Obama's victory speech.  To a boisterous and enthusiastic crowd of supporters, he said, "We are choosing hope over fear, we are choosing unity over division and sending a powerful message that change is coming to America."  His speech was lauded by many political commentators as inspirational and reminiscent of President John F. Kennedy. 

Looking Ahead To New Hampshire

Coming off victories in Iowa, Democrat Obama and Republican Huckabee were hoping that momentum would contribute to rising fortunes at the polls in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Democrat Clinton and Republican Romney were hoping for more encouraging results in the Granite State – essentially oriented to recapturing their respective frontrunner status.  Democrats Edwards and Richardson were simply hoping to stay in the race and retain some viability, while Republicans Giuliani, Thompson and Paul were hoping for the same. Republican John McCain was in a unique position -- poised for a strong finish in New Hampshire which would showcase his resurgence. 

In the days after the Iowa caucuses a number of polls were released showing Obama enjoying a strong post-Iowa bounce, and some apparent drop in support for both Clinton and Edwards.  On the Republican side of the partisan divide, Huckabee, who did not expect to actually win New Hampshire, was also benefiting from a small post-Iowa boost, while McCain and Romney were in a close fight for the top spot.

Results in New Hampshire

The polls in New Hampshire turned out to be significantly wrong, at least in the case of the Democrats.   There was no landslide victory for Obama; instead, the race remained too close to call for most of the night of January 8, 2008.  It was ultimately won by Clinton by approximately three percentage points -- 39 percent for Clinton  to 36 percent for Obama.  Edwards registered a distant third place finish with 17 percent.

Analysts noted that Obama's finish was actually in line with polling predictions, however, Clinton's was not. The surge in Clinton's numbers was attributed to late-deciding voters breaking disproportionately for her.  This trend was not fully captured in the polling models that did not anticipate that the large number of undecided voters would move toward Clinton rather than Obama. 

Exit poll data indicated that more than 30 percent of Democratic voters decided late about their choice.  Presumably, this worked in Clinton's favor since New Hampshire voters may have reacted to the media narrative of the New York Senator's imminent political demise, as well as the criticism of her misty-eyed moment on the campaign trail the day before the primary.  Exit poll data also showed that women broke disproportionately for Clinton in New Hampshire in something of a backlash to these two developments, in conjunction with her retooled campaign message of having the experience to make change.  Her strong debate performance was also cited as a consideration by late-deciding voters who supported Clinton.  Whereas Obama won younger voter (although by a lesser margin than in Iowa), independent voters and those wanting change, Clinton may have ultimately won the New Hampshire primary by gaining the support of the plurality of female voters as well as those who were looking for experience. 

 With both of the two main Democratic candidates winning one of the first two battles, attention was now turned to Nevada and South Carolina.  Both contenders were making history -- one as the first woman with a strong chance to win the Democratic nomination and ultimately, the presidency, and the other as the first African American.

On the Republican side of the partisan divide, McCain won the primary and something of a political comeback.  His victory over Romney was 37 percent to 32 percent and appeared to be thanks to independent and moderate voters.  For Romney, another second place finish was both a detriment and a benefit.  Whereas he had now failed to win the first two states in keeping with his early victory strategy, he had nonetheless won second place in both states -- thus consolidating his position in the top tier. Huckabee locked up a third place finish with 11 percent and seemed happy to be in the top three finishers. 

Now McCain and Romney were both expected to fight a rematch in Michigan for ascendancy, while Huckabee was looking to South Carolina for a second victory there.  His toughest competition in that state was expected to be Giuliani and Thompson, although McCain and Romney would also be contenders.

The biggest story out of New Hampshire, as in Iowa, was turnout.  Overall, turnout across the state had increased.  However, participation among Democrats was particularly high.  In Iowa,  Obama's victory was greater than the totality of all the GOP contenders combined.  In New Hampshire,  Obama and Clinton were able to garner significantly more than 100,000 voters respectively, while McCain won with around 80,000 votes and Romney notably less.  Indeed, Democratic turnout totaled over 280,000 in New Hampshire whereas Republican turnout was 220,000. 


Onward to Michigan and Nevada

Following the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries, Republican and Democratic contenders were setting their sights on Michigan and Nevada.  The Michigan primaries were scheduled for January 15, 2008 while the Nevada caucuses were set for January 19, 2008.

With both of the two main Democratic candidates -- Obama and Clinton -- winning one of the first two battles (Iowa and New Hampshire respectively), attention was now turned to Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina.  Both contenders were making history -- one as the first woman with a strong chance to win the Democratic nomination and ultimately, the presidency, and the other as the first African American. While Clinton defied the experts -- both media analysts and pollsters -- by winning New Hampshire, Obama was benefitting from endorsements by key political players, including former Democratic presidential nominee, John Kerry.

On the Republican side of the partisan divide, McCain won the New Hampshire primary and something of a political comeback.  His victory over Romney was 37 percent to 32 percent and appeared to be thanks to independent and moderate voters.  For Romney, another second place finish was both a detriment and a benefit.  Whereas he had now failed to win the first two states in keeping with his early victory strategy, he had nonetheless won second place in both states -- thus consolidating his position in the top tier. Huckabee locked up a third place finish with 11 percent in a state that was not expected to be his strongest terrain.

On the issues, the economy was emerging as a prominent concern -- indeed, in some surveys, it eclipsed the Iraq war as the predominant concern.  To that end, Republican contenders were sparring with one another in debates about the benefits of Reaganesque supply side economics and tax cut plans.  On the other side of the partisan divide, the top Democratic candidates unveiled economic stimulus plans in the second week of January 2008.

Meanwhile, in the background of these developments, speculation grew about the financial state of Giuliani's campaign, when staffers were reported to be delaying their compensation.  There was also some sign that the Republican contenders were staking out strategic positions in relation to one another.  In one debate Thompson functioned as a surrogate for McCain against Huckabee, while all the contenders appeared to target Romney for criticism, particularly as regards his changing policy stances. 

Among Democrats, remarks by Clinton that Martin Luther King Jr.'s civil rights achievements could not have been realized without President Lyndon Johnson's signature on civil rights legislation evoked  criticism ahead of the South Carolina primary where a significant portion of Democratic primary voters are African American.   As well, a supporter of Clinton's campaign presented an oblique reference to Obama's admitted drug experimentation in his youth, which also evoked anxieties about the campaign turning acrimonious.  But days later, both Clinton and Obama personally distanced themselves from the brewing controversy and presented a united front on matters pertaining to race and gender.


Michigan 

In Michigan,   Hillary Clinton was  the only main candidate on the ballot, due to the decision by Democratic leaders to strip the state of all its delegates  to the national convention.  This decision was made because the state scheduled an early presidential primary in violation of party rules.  (Florida was placed in a similar bind.)  Now, ultimately, it is believed that the delegates would eventually be seated at the convention, but the dispute resulted in the names of some contenders -- including Obama and Edwards -- being removed from the ballot.  Supporters of Obama and Edwards have urged voters to choose "uncommitted" on the ballot rather than Clinton. 

Clinton ultimately took 55 percent of the vote share while 40 percent went to "uncommitted" column on the ballot.  This outcome, due to Michigan's precarious situation at the forthcoming convention,  was not regarded as illustrative of any dynamic in the Democratic race.

In the Republican primary in Michigan, a close race was anticipated between the two top Republican vote getters in New Hampshire -- McCain and Romney.  McCain was hoping to capitalize on the momentum from his New Hampshire win as well as the legacy of his strong 2000  performance in that state with another victory in Michigan.  Meanwhile, Romney was set to endure a critical test in  the state where his father was governor and where he kicked off his presidential campaign.  With two  "silver medal" finishes, Romney was looking for an affirmative nod and a much anticipated "gold medal"  finish.  Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani were also vying for a competitive finish so they could stay in the race through Nevada, and until South Carolina.

Ultimately, Romney won a decisive victory in his home state of Michigan with 39 percent of the vote share. McCain came in a fairly distant second with 30 percent, and Huckabee took 16 percent.  The result essentially reinvigorated Romney's candidacy and stalled McCain's post-New Hampshire momentum.


Nevada

Concerns specific to Nevada included civil and military nuclear technology.  Central to this issue is the  matter of Yucca Mountain, which was approved in 2002 and set to commence in 2008,  as a nuclear waste site.  The people of Nevada have been particularly anxious about health and environmental effects of Yucca Mountain. 

While Michigan was not yielding decisive results for the Democrats, all eyes were on the Nevada caucuses.  Clinton, who had held a strong lead in that state in late 2007, was hoping to hold on to that ascendant position and consolidate her delegate count with a big win in Nevada.  She was hoping to have strong Hispanic support in that state.  Meanwhile, Obama, who had trailed Clinton for all of late 2007, was looking to narrow the gap.  To that end, he was helped by an important endorsement by the Culinary Union.  It was yet to be seen if support from one of the most reliable and influential unions in the state would translate into votes.

Ultimately, Hillary Clinton won a victory of 51 percent over Barack Obama who had 45 percent, however, as a result of a complicated weighting system, Obama actually won more  convention delegates (13) than Clinton (12).  John Edwards was barely on the board with less than five percent of the viable vote share.  There were also some reports about voting irregularities.

Among  Republicans, there was no frontrunner going into Nevada, given the three respective victories won by  Huckabee, McCain and Romney thus far.   McCain was oriented toward getting past Nevada and onward to South Carolina. His objective was to show that he could win beyond friendly territory of New Hampshire. Romney was expecting that his post-Michigan momentum would be sustained into Nevada, and aimed to break into frontrunner status.  Huckabee was aiming to hold on past Nevada so that he could gain some victories in the south and stay viable.

Ultimately, Mitt Romney cruised to victory with an overwhelming victory of 52 percent.  Ron Paul took a surprise second place finish  in the Silver State with 14 percent, and John McCain secured a third place finish were with 13 percent.  With back to back victories in Michigan and Nevada, and thanks to second place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney was ahead in the delegate count.


South Carolina

In South Carolina, military concerns, national security, immigrant and  conservative values were expected to factor highly among Republicans.  The economy, as well as the impact of the African-American voters, were expected to influence the Democratic contest in the   Palmetto State.

This was set to be a race between McCain, who was seeking to benefit from the veteran vote in order to recapture momentum and, perhaps, seize frontrunner status, and Huckabee, who was looking to consolidate the conservative evangelical vote and his second victory after Iowa. Thompson was simply looking for any good performance in the south to validate his remaining in the race.  Giuliani was still banking on this Super Tuesday strategy and  hoping that he would remain relevant in two weeks.

Exit poll date showed McCain with a small lead over Huckabee.  The actual results were consistent with the exit polls; McCain won with 33 percent and Huckabee was second with 30 percent.  Thompson took third place with 16 percent and Romney was close behind with 15 percent.  With two wins under his belt -- New Hampshire and now South Carolina -- and with polls showing McCain doing well in Florida and on the national level, there were increasing suggestions that McCain could be the Republican  frontrunner. 

With the Democratic race for South Carolina pending, polls showed Obama ahead of Clinton, thanks to support from the large African American population in that state.  Edwards was hoping to close the gap and have a strong finish.

On the day of the Democratic South Carolina primary, January 26, 2008, Democrats went to the polls in South Carolina in record numbers.  Exit poll data was consistent with the final outcome and  Barack Obama  claimed an overwhelming victory over Hillary Clinton  in the Palmetto state.   Indeed, Obama won a resounding 55 percent -- more than double the 27 percent secured by Clinton; Edwards took 18 percent.  More than half a million people cast ballots in the 2008 Democratic primary, with Obama's vote share exceeding the total number of votes cast for all candidates in the Democratic primary of 2004.

The days prior to the South Carolina primary were marked by acrimonious rivalry between the Obama and Clinton camps, and with accusations that a racial tenor was infusing the contest.  There was some suggestion that the voters would split on ethnic and gender lines with African Americans casting ballots for Obama and Clinton capturing the white and female vote.  But in the end, Obama outperformed the polls and secured support from across ethnic, gender and generational lines.  He was rewarded with the notable endorsements from both the daughter and the brother of the late President John F. Kennedy -- Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg and Senator Edward Kennedy.


Onward to Florida

After the Palmetto State came the Sunshine State with the Florida primary was scheduled for January 29, 2008. Issues in Florida included immigration, taxes, as well as health care and social security for retirees.

Florida loomed large for the Republicans.  In particular, Giuliani -- once the national Republican frontrunner -- was hoping to re-establish his credibility and frontrunner status with a much-promised victory in Florida.  But McCain, who now was trying to claim frontrunner status, wanted the Sunshine State to grant him a back to back victory after South Carolina.  He was helped by a notable endorsement from Florida Governor Charlie Crist.  Romney, who was in a healthy position with the most overall delegates, was also hoping to consolidate his position in the top tier.  And after his disappointing finish in South Carolina, Huckabee was hoping to move upward in the polls in this southern state.  He was somewhat  bolstered by the departure of fellow southerner, Thompson, from the Republican race. 

Ultimately, McCain took victory with  about 36 percent of the vote share, Romney took second place with approximately 32 percent,  while Giuliani and Huckabee competed for a distant third place finish around 15 percent.  While Huckabee looked forward to good performances in southern Super Tuesday states, analysts surmised that it was the end of the line for Giuliani.  Meanwhile, McCain basked in his newfound status as Republican frontrunner.

As was the case in Michigan, Democrats had been stripped of their delegates as a result of the state's decision to change the date of the primary in violation of the rules of the Democratic National Convention.  In this case, however, most unlike Michigan, the main contenders – Clinton, Obama and Edwards -- remained on the ballot.  Polls showed Clinton ahead in the Florida primary.  These prognostications were born out by the actual distribution of the votes, which gave her the most votes -- about 50 percent, with Obama taking about 32 percent and Edwards carrying 15 percent. Still, the outcome of the Florida race among Democrats lost some of its punch due to the state's questionable status of its delegates among the Democratic establishment.


Super Tuesday

The two remaining Democratic candidates,  Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, left the acrimony behind and conducted a civil and policy-heavy debate at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles.  It was the first head-to-head debate among the Democratic candidates since John Edwards left the field of competition.  Clinton and Obama wasted no time appealing to Edwards' voters by referencing the need to fight poverty during the debate.  Both Clinton and Obama ended the debate warmly, giving rise to the notion of a "dream team" Democratic ticket with both their names on it.  In reality, such an outcome was premature since the mega-primary contest of Super Tuesday loomed ahead on February 5, 2008, with both seeking to add to their delegate count and ascendancy ahead of the convention. 

Meanwhile,  the two campaigns were strategizing about how best to gain votes.  After the retail politics of Iowa and New Hampshire, contesting Super Tuesday typically involves maximizing exposure to get the respective messages out.  Where would money and time be best spent, given that it is emotionally, fiscally, and physically improbable that they are able to adequately promote themselves in each state holding primaries on that day?  

Polling data suggested that whereas Clinton once held an overwhelming advantage in the states holding primaries on Super Tuesday, Obama was quickly closing the gap in states across the country.  The highly competitive race was reflected in the national polling numbers, which showed Clinton's decisive lead decreasing over time.  Perceived movement at the national level has normally been interpreted as movement across the board.

The Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses across the country-- once forecast to end in strong victory for Clinton -- were much tighter than had originally been anticipated and  ended in a virtual tie for the two Democrats.  While Clinton won eight states including the key state of California, Obama won thirteen states including the swing state of Missouri. New Mexico was not decided at the time of writing.  Given the Democrats' complicated method of calculating delegates across the states, it was expected that neither Clinton nor Obama would have enough delegates to clinch  the nomination after Super Tuesday.  Such a result would raise the specter of meaningful primaries in forthcoming states later in February, not to mention primaries in large states, such as Texas and Ohio in March.   Along the road to the nomination, Clinton would be helped by more "super delegates" pledged to support  her, while Obama would be helped by  the fact that he raised a whopping $32 million in donations in the first month of 2008.

Democratic Results --

States won by Clinton: Arizona Arkansas California Massachusetts New Jersey New York Oklahoma Tennessee

States won by Obama:  Alabama Alaska Colorado Connecticut Delaware Georgia Idaho Illinois Kansas Minnesota Missouri North Dakota Utah

With Rudy Giuliani’s resignation from the race to the White House on January 31, 2008, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee looked toward February 5th  hoping to gather as many votes -- and as many delegates -- as possible in the Republican race.  The three-way contest was on full display at a rather heated debate, particularly involving McCain and Romney, at the Ronald Reagan Library in California. 

McCain headed into Super Tuesday with confidence after winning a very tight competition in Florida.  With Giuliani’s endorsement, McCain had momentum and increasing support from the Republican base.  As such, he was expecting to rack up a number of victories on Super Tuesday and make significant progress with the delegate count.  Although Romney's loss to McCain in the Sunshine state was not significant, the "winner take all" system in the Republican Party meant that he gained no delegates on that day.   Still, Romney's victory in Maine Republican Caucus gave him a boost ahead of the February 5th primaries, and he also was expected to benefit from his   financial advantage.   Huckabee was also in that less than optimal position after Florida.  Indeed, there were questions about Huckabee's very candidacy since his polling numbers had reached something a plateau.  But Huckabee was anticipating some victories in the southern Super Tuesday states, and strategically, his presence in the race meant that he was splitting the conservative vote share with Romney.  The beneficiary of that split was McCain.

On Super Tuesday McCain was the big winner with most of the northeastern states as well as California.  Given the "winner  take all" system that dominates the Republican system of calculation, he was expected to come out with a strong delegate advantage and the label "GOP frontrunner."   On the downside for McCain, a resurgent Huckabee won many a number of southern states, starting early in the day with the West Virginia primary.  Since Republicans generally do not win the White House without southern support, Huckabee's strength in this area propelled him forward.  Romney was also on the board with wins in a number of states including Masachusetts, however, he was unable to capture California.  Perhaps acknowledging this disappointing performance, the Romney campaign was said to have scheduled "frank talks" for the next day, presumably to discuss its viability going forward.  Romney soon withdrew from the race.

Republican results --

States won by McCain: New York New Jersey Connecticut California Delaware Illinois Missouri Arizona Oklahoma

States won by Huckabee: Arkansas Alabama Georgia Tennessee West Virginia

States won by Romney: Colorado Massachusetts Montana Missouri North Dakota Utah


Other February primaries and caucuses

On Feburary 9, 2008, Democrats Clinton and Obama competed in the Louisiana primary, as well as caucuses in Washington, Nebraska  and Virgin Islands.   A day later he competed against Clinton in Maine.  The two Democrats -- virtually tied in delegates -- were hoping to break out into frontrunner status.  Meanwhile,  Republicans McCain and Huckabee competed in the Louisiana, Kansas, Washington  and Guam. 

With the votes counted, Obama was on his way to assuming the mantle of Democratic frontrunner with a series of decisive victories.  In Nebraska, he dominated Clinton with 68 percent  to 32 percent.  Washington results mirrored these results with Obama winning 68 percent to Clinton with 31 percent.  In Lousiana, Obama won with 57 percent to Clinton with 37 percent.   Obama  additionally claimed a resounding victory the Virgin Islands with a breathtaking 90 percent of the vote share.  Then, a day later, he continued his winning streak with a win in Maine over Clinton with 59 percent to 41 percent.   Meanwhile, Clinton announced a shakeup within her campaign staff, presumably aimed at revitalizing her campaign strategy.

Meanwhile, resurgent Huckabee dominated the GOP frontrunner McCain with 60 percent of the vote share to 24 percent in  Kansas. Huckabee won over McCain in Lousiana, but McCain was reported to have won over Huckabee in Washington. No date was available for Guam at the time of writing.  McCain's slim victory in Washington led to criticism by the Huckabee campaign that the race had been called prematurely, and as a consequence, it was considering legal options.  Regardless of the success of that endeavor, McCain's delegate lead was so overwhelming, it was not believed that Huckabee could wrest control over the GOP race.   

The Potomac primaries  (also known as Chesapeake primaries) in Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C. were scheduled for Feb. 12, 2008.  They were expected to accentuate Obama's momentum and extend McCain's lead. 

Indeed,  momentum led Obama to victories over Clinton in Virginia with 64 percent to 34 percent, in  Maryland with 60 percent to 37 percent, and in the District of Columbia with  75 percent to 24 percent.  The results catapulted Obama into the lead with the delegate count. Meanwhile, Clinton announced a shakeup within her campaign staff, presumably aimed at revitalizing her campaign strategy, ahead of important primaries in Texas and Ohio where she hoped to regain her footing.

On the other side of the partisan divide, McCain responded to Huckabee's challenge with wins in Virginia (50 percent to 41 percent), Maryland (55 percent to 30 percent), and the District of Columbia with tallies at 69 percent to 13 percent. The performance consolidated McCain's position as the presumptive GOP nominee.

On Feb. 19, 2008, the remaining Democrats and Republicans were set to contest the Wisconsin primaries.  Clinton was hoping to manage a surprise upset over Obama in this state, while McCain was expecting to take victory and accumulate delegates over Huckabee.  Also on that day, the Democratic caucuses in Hawaii were to be held.  Obama was hoping to win in the state of his birth.  Another round of the Republicans' Washington primary was also set for that day.

Results in Wisconsin gave McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, an outright victory of 54.8 percent (with almost all the ballots counted) over Huckabee with close to 37 percent.  McCain also won against Huckabee in Washington.  Among Democrats, Obama sailed to another decisive victory over Clinton with 58.2 percent to 40.7 percent. Results in Hawaii showed Obama leading with 77 percent in the state of his birth, and Clinton trailing with 23 percent.

On February 21, 2008, Obama won the vote of the global "Democrats Abroad" primary with 65.6 percent and Clinton took 32.7 percent.

On February 23, 2007, McCain gained more delegates in American Samoa and the Northern Marianas; a day later, he took victory in Puerto Rico.

All Eyes on Texas and Ohio; Rhode Island and Vermont also vote

The latter part of February 2008 was spent by the candidates on the campaign trail in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont, which were to hold their primaries on March 4, 2008.

Among the Democrats, Clinton was hoping to stay viable by winning both the two large states, as well as Rhode Island, and thus halting Obama's march to the Democratic nomination.  However, polls showed Obama in a statistical tie with Clinton in Texas, and closing the double-digit lead Clinton had held for months in Ohio.  Only weeks earlier, Clinton had been favored to win both states convincingly. Likewise, Clinton was expected to win in Rhode Island, however, Obama cruising toward a strong victory in Vermont. Analysts have noted that Clinton simply winning the popular vote in these states would not be sufficient to keep her in the race; indeed, she needs to win Texas and Ohio by 15 percent in order to net sufficient delegates to move her toward the nomination.  Polls were contradictory on the eve of March 4, 2008.

Meanwhile, McCain was hoping to further consolidate his position as presumptive GOP nominee.  He was sporting double-digit leads against Huckabee and Paul in the March 4th primaries, despite a New York Times story linking McCain with a female lobbyist.  While the news item itself became the source of controversy due to its reliance on anonymous sources, the issue raised questions about McCain's ties to lobbyists -- an apparent contradiction of the Republican's self-avowed image of clean governance.

Record high voter turnout in the early voting and absentee voting in Texas and Ohio continued on February 4, 2008.  On that day, voters also cast ballots in Rhode Island and Vermont.

As expected, McCain swept all four states and, in  so doing, advanced his delegate advantage while securing his place as the presumptive Republican nominee.  Huckabee responded to McCain's performance at the polls by withdrawing from the race.  In Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island, McCain garnered significant leads over Huckabee and  was projected to secure 1194 delegates, thus surpassing the 1191 threshold for gaining the nomination.

Among Democrats, Obama won Vermont with about 60 percent of the vote share to Clinton with 38 percent.  This was the 12th straight win for Obama.  However, on the same night, his winning streak came to an end when Clinton grabbed three big victories.  In Rhode Island, she won 58 percent to Obama with 40 percent.  In Ohio, she enjoyed a sizable victory of 55 percent over Obama with 43 percent.  In the Texas primary, Clinton eked out a slim victory of 51 percent over Obama with 47 percent, although he won the caucuses with 56 percent to Clinton with 44 percent.  (In Texas, two-thirds of the delegates are apportioned on the basis of the primary outcome and one-third is apportioned on the basis of the caucus results.)

While McCain garnered the nomination and a clear victory, the nomination track continued for the Democrats.  Clinton shut down Obama's winning streak, gained the headlines, and was making the case that she had won Ohio -- a bellwether state that was essential to any winning Democratic strategy in the general election.  On the other hand, Obama argued that despite Clinton's popular vote victories, her net delegate advantage would be minor at the end of the day, and would not yield the nomination.  His observation was particularly illustrated by the case of Texas, where he expected to garner more delegates than Clinton. 

Regardless, the fact remained that the Democratic nomination contest remained unsettled, while the Republican nominee was chosen on March 4, 2008.


Wyoming and Mississippi

On March 8, 2008, Democrats Obama and Clinton fought for delegates at the Wyoming caucuses.  Obama was hoping to stop  Clinton's momentum after her strong performance in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island.  He was not helped by a week of bad press, including inopportune remarks made by one of his foreign policy advisors who was ultimately forced to resign.  Meanwhile, Clinton relentlessly hammered Obama, even going to far as to suggest that while she and presumptive GOP nominee, McCain, were ready to be commander-in-chief, her fellow Democrat was not.

The negative political climate notwithstanding, Obama returned to the winning column, decisively defeating Clinton in Wyoming by 61 percent to 38 percent.  That result allowed him to both pad his delegate lead and regain some degree of his own momentum.  To that end, he was looking for a repeat performance in Mississippi on March 11, 2008.  In that race,  Obama won handily against Clinton with approximately 61 percent to 38 percent. 

Pennsylvania

Democrats were set to contest Pennsylvania on April 22, 2008.  The long period leading up to Pennsylvania did not begin on a good note for either Democrat.  Hillary Clinton was forced to distance herself from controversial remarks made by one of her surrogates -- former Vice Presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro, while Barack Obama had to repudiate incendiary sermons delivered by the pastor of his own church.  Obama also used the opportunity to beat back this criticism by delivering a landmark speech on race relations in the United States.  

Meanwhile, Republican presumptive presidential nominee, John McCain,  was traveling in the Middle East and building his image as a statesman.  McCain was not without challenges, though.  He was caught on tape confusing the two main religious groups of Iraq -- Shi'a and Sunni. As well, he made dubious claims about al-Qaida and Iran, forcing his Senatorial colleague, Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman, to remind him of this error. 

In the next few weeks leading up to the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton was faced with a credibility conundrum.  At issue were her claims that during her trip in the 1990s to war-torn Bosnia, her flight had to dodge sniper fire.  These claims did not hold up to scrutiny, as a result of videotapes showing her enjoying a calm arrival in Bosnia, complete with a rather typical political photo opportunity on the tarmac in Tuzla.  This, plus her increasingly vituperative attacks against Obama, appeared to have negatively affected her favorability ratings.  At the same time, Obama was gaining strength, even in the face of his potentially controversial claim that voters in Pennsylvania were bitter. 

But that momentum may have been  stemmed in the days before the Pennsylvania primary by a rough performance at a debate in Pennsylvania.  There, he was relentlessly questioned by ABC moderators about these aforementioned controversies, and had little opportunity to advance his message.  By contrast, Clinton was peppered with fewer difficult questions, and was able to crisply answer the few policy-oriented questions that occurred during the debate.  Yet to be determined was whether that debate would be an actual game changer for Clinton, as her campaign asserted.    

The main campaign  issue for voters in Pennsylvania appeared to be the economy.  Both Democratic contenders were promising to deliver Pennsylvanians from the dire economic circumstances being endured across the country, but which has be particularly acute in the "Rust Belt" of America.  Both candidates promised to reconsider the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),  while Clinton said she would take a hard line against China, and Obama excoriated lobbyists and corporate executives with exorbitant salaries.

In this way, Pennsylvania promised to be much like Ohio, which Clinton won in March 2008.  Clinton was also helped by demographics. Pennsylvania has been home to an aging population and has large swaths of blue collar and rural voters -- all of which have been integral parts of her voting base.  A third benefit to Clinton was that she had the support of most of Democratic establishment in the state, including that of uber-popular Governor Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Nutter and Congressman Jack Murtha.  By contrast, Obama's notable Pennsylvania support was limited to junior Senator Bob Casey and freshman Congressman Patrick Murphy. Obama was hoping to capture the youth vote in the many universities of Pennsylvania, upscale suburban voters, and African American voters in the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Polling data after the big March primaries had shown Clinton with a 20-30 point lead over Obama - a clear indication that she had a strong advantage and was expected to win the state. Indeed, what came to be known as 'the delegate math" suggested that she had to win the state by landslide, followed by landslide victories in following states such as Indiana, North Carolina, and Kentucky, in order to have a chance of winning the nomination.  As the weeks progressed through, April, though, Obama launched a tour across the state, and as he had in Ohio and Texas, managed to decrease Clinton's advantage by about half. With Obama closing in on Clinton, her campaign began to lower expectations, even suggesting that a 15-point  advantage on election day would constitute a major victory.  Political pundits, though, were warning that a single digit victory would hardly result in any significant pledged delegate advantage from Pennsylvania, and would not advance her case among superdelegates.  

Democratic delegates include both pledged delegates (allotted as a result of candidates' performances in primaries and caucuses), as well as superdelegates (party insiders who vote for their preferred candidates on the basis of prerogative).  At the core was the reality that the winning candidate had to capture 2025 delegates.  To that end, Obama was closer to reaching the 2025 number than Clinton, who would have to score massive consecutive victories and a superdelegate coup to get the nomination.  As such, Clinton was both energetically campaigning in Pennsylvania and arguing her case of electability to superdelegates.  Obama was campaigning hard in an effort to minimize Clinton's potential pledged delegate gain.   
 
In the background of these campaign developments was the fact that voter registration across the state was increasing -- notably among Democrats.  Thus, despite the increasingly acrimonious spirit of the Democratic race, which threatened to benefit McCain the general election, Democrats took solace in the fact that the size of the party was on an upward trend.

Note:  In the days leading up to the Pennsylvania primary, polls were contradictory.  A number of polling outfits (Rasmussen, Zogby and PPP) showed Obama drawing within single digits of Clinton, however, Survey USA showed Clinton maintaining a double digit lead.  There remained a high number of undecided voters. If Ohio were an indicator of what would happen in the Keystone State, then it was likely those undecided voters might break for Clinton.  On the other hand, much like Iowa where candidates had a lengthy period of time for voters to get to know the candidates, Obama was the ultimate beneficiary of late deciders. 

Ultimately, Clinton carried Pennsylvania by a nine point margin of victory over Obama.  Yet to be determined was whether or not Clinton's margin of victory was big enough to substantially gain both pledged and superdelegates.  This nine point victory -- on the verge of double digits -- was regarded as helpful in keeping donors contributing to her campaign, which was plagued with money woes.   Meanwhile, the Obama campaign looked to voter turnout data showing that its candidate had made inroads in key demographic groups, such as white males, since Ohio.  For both Clinton and Obama, however, the ultimate result was that the final vote count, distribution of the voters and the pledged delegate split indicated little movement for either of them in the path toward the nomination.


Guam:

On May 3, 2008, voters in the Pacific island territory of Guam cast their ballots for the Democratic nomination.  Normally, Guam would not factor in a presidential race this late in the primary process, however, 2008 was a different story entirely thanks to the competitive nature of the contest.  Both Obama and Clinton expended their finances on advertising in Guam to make their respective cases.  Ultimately, Obama won the close contest over Clinton by a slim margin of victory of only seven votes.  In this way, the race for the Democratic nomination was no more decided than after Pennsylvania.

North Carolina and Indiana: 

After a decisive  win by Clinton in Pennsylvania April 2008, Obama tried to regroup but was quickly faced with the resurfacing story of his controversial pastor.  These two factors appeared to contribute to devolving poll numbers for Obama, while Clinton's populist message was gaining resonance, manifest by her higher polling results.  As noted above, the close race in Guam did little to move the race along.  All eyes were then turned to forthcoming primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, scheduled for May 6, 2008.

Clinton was hoping to capitalize on her post-Pennsylvania momentum to  claim a big victory in Indiana. She was aided by high level home turf support in Indiana, thanks to the support of Senator Evan Bayh. As well, the state was suffering from many of the same economic challenges as Ohio and Pennsylvania, and was home to a white working class population base.  Both of these factors, along with Bayh's support,  were expected to boost Clinton's chances in Indiana.  Meanwhile, Clinton was also hoping to be competitive in North Carolina.  While Obama had been earlier favored to win North Carolina, in large part because of the demographic advantage in that state,  Bill Clinton's aggressive campaign schedule in the Tarheel State appeared to be notably cutting into that lead.  

Polling data in the days before the May 6th contests showed Clinton sporting a clear advantage in Indiana and narrowing the gap significantly in North Carolina.  Should the two contests have ended with a clear victory in Indiana for Clinton, followed by a close race in North Carolina (if not an outright victory), she would have been expected to make a persuasive case for support to superdelegates.  But, in fact, only moments after the polls closed in North Carolina, it was apparent that Obama had rebounded from his difficult post-Pennsylvania period handily and had won the state by 14-15 percent.  In this regard, he outperformed the last round of polling data, and the sociometric overlay showed that he had improved his performance in key demographic groups (white, blacks and multiple income groups).   Clinton was not able to match Obama's significant victory in that state with an equivalent show of support in Indiana.  Instead, the state was relegated to the "too close to call" category for several hours.  Late into the night, Clinton was able to eke out a narrow win by a razor thin 1.5 percent margin. 


West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon

 A massive victory of approximately 40 points in West Virginia, thanks to favorable demographics, did not significantly improve  Clinton's prospects to win the Democratic nomination.  This was due to the fact that superdelegates were now moving in Obama's direction.  In fact, the day after Clinton's blowout victory in West Virginia, Obama was buoyed by the coveted endorsement of former rival Senator John Edwards.  While Clinton won the Kentucky primary handily on May 20, 2008, but even her 35 point advantage over Obama did not significantly change the course of the race.  On the same day (May 20, 2008), the Oregon primary gave Obama his own  landslide win and effectively mitigated any of Clinton's advantages from Kentucky.  Moreover, the combined results of Kentucky and Oregon meant that Obama had now won the absolute majority of delegates in the Democratic primary process.  This milestone propelled Obama further into the zone of likely  Democratic nominee. 

Obama  would still have to gain further support from the superdelegates to cross the 2025* threshold, however, his reliance on superdelegates was far less acute than Clinton.  For her part, Clinton who would require the vast majority of remaining undeclared superdelegates to ignore the pledged delegate count and move en mass in her direction in order to win.  Perhaps understanding this reality, Clinton began speaking about the strength of her support as measured in the popular vote.  Clinton's problem, though, was the fact that much of that argument relied on including the spurious results of the Florida and Michigan primaries, while excluding all the voters in caucus states.    Attention was thusly turning  to the viability of Clinton's continued candidacy. 

(*The 2025 number was subject to change on March 31, 2008 following a meeting intended to resolve what to do about the situations in Florida and Michigan.)


Whither Florida and Michigan? 

At issue during the Rules and Bylaws (RB) meeting was the status of the delegates from Florida and Michigan.  Because of the decisions made by the Democratic parties in Florida and Michigan respectively to violate party rules and set early primary dates, the Democratic National Convention (DNC) stripped both states of their delegates.  The primaries in both states -- now deemed illegitimate by the DNC -- were not contested by any of the candidates, although Clinton garnered the plurality of votes.  For a period, there was speculation about whether there would be a re-vote or not in these states, for the purpose of ultimately seating the two state delegations at the convention in Denver in August 2008. The main question was whether or not the DNC would credential the delegates on the basis of the disqualified primaries.  Alternatively, would the DNC simply split the delegate share among Obama and Clinton?  It was believed that with the Democratic race so close, delegates from these two states -- if ultimately seated -- could very well help to decide the nomination.

At the RB meeting, it was decided that the full Florida delegation would be seated but that each delegate would have only half a vote.  This measure was oriented toward punishing the state for its violation in accordance with DNC provisions, while also ensuring that the full delegation would be seated.  The Obama camp, already ahead in the delegate count, decided Clinton's net advantage from the ruling would not ultimately affect their lead and accepted this outcome.  The issue of  Michigan was more tricky.  As with Florida, Clinton garnered the plurality of the votes in the supposed illegitimate primary. But Obama's name was not even on the ballot in that state.  As such, the state party offered a rather arbitrary formula of allotting Clinton ten more delegates than Obama.  While the Clinton camp was against this option, it was still more favorable than another possibility -- simply splitting the delegates equally between the two.  As with Florida, the DNC decided the seat all the delegates, albeit with half strength votes.  While the vast majority of RB members voted in favor of this resolution, the Clinton camp warned that it might fight the ruling at the convention.

The upshot of the RB meeting was that with Florida and Michigan now returned to the fold, the new delegate count threshold for capturing the Democratic presidential nomination was 2118 instead of 2025. 


Puerto Rico

On June 1, 2008, Democratic presidential contender, Hillary Clinton, won a decisive victory over Barack Obama in the primary held in Puerto Rico.  Despite her strong lead in the United States territory, which would consolidate her popular vote count, Clinton nonetheless trailed Obama in the number of delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination.  That number -- originally thought to be 2025 -- had changed to 2118 the day before following a meeting of the Rules and Bylaws (RB) sub-group of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). 


South Dakota and Montana

In late May 2008, Barack Obama  held a consistent  lead in delegates, and was expected to continue to maintain that lead throughout the remaining contests of the primary season.  However, most calculations suggested that he might be just short of the requisite delegates to clinch the nomination.  To cross that threshold, he would need the help of super-delegates.  Meanwhile, even with her overwhelming victory in Puerto Rico, in addition to the most generous calculations in forthcoming primaries, Hillary Rodham Clinton would not be able to bypass Obama in the delegate count.  Thus, she would also have to rely on super-delegates to rush en masse to her corner if she was to have a chance of winning the nomination.

Ultimately, with only South Dakota and Montana left to contest in early June 2008, Obama was in a more favorable position than Clinton.  Decent  performances in the two remaining states and a handful of superdelegates’ endorsements would allow him to capture the nomination by June 3, 2008.   With this reality in the offing, Clinton was calling on superdelegates to turn overwhelmingly to her, arguing that the polling data showed her to be more electable and with a popular vote advantage.  Whether or not these arguments would hold sway with superdelegates was yet to be seen.

The Democratic presidential contest ended with a split decision on the night of the South Dakota and Montana primaries On June 3, 3008.  Clinton carried South Dakota handily by approximately 10 percentage points, while Obama won a decisive victory with a 18 percentage point advantage.  His loss in South Dakota notwithstanding, Obama was able to gain enough delegates out of that state to cross the new threshold of 2118 (now increased from 2025 due to the resolutions on delegations from Florida and Michigan) and gain the majority of delegates  at stake in the 2008 Democratic race.


Obama becomes  Democratic nominee; Clinton exits and endorses Obama

Summary:   On the night of the South Dakota and Montana primaries, Barack Obama achieved the requisite number of delegates -- 2118 -- needed to claim victory as  the Democratic presidential nominee.  As such, Barack Obama was able to claim victory as  the Democratic presidential nominee.  Obama thusly made history in becoming the United States' first ever African-American presidential nominee of either of the two main political parties.

Speaking to a packed crowd in St. Paul, Minnesota, Obama addressed jubilant supporters asserting, "Tonight, we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another - a journey that will bring a new and better day to America. Because of you, tonight, I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States.”  Obama also acknowledged his Democratic rival saying, "Our party and our country are better off because of her, and I am a better candidate for having had the honor to compete with Hillary Rodham Clinton."  Interestingly, Obama issued his victory speech at the same venue where Republican John McCain, would accept his party’s nomination in September 2008.

Clinton, meanwhile, was not keen on offering her immediate concession.  But a backlash  from many -- including her own stalwarts -- to her hard line position, appeared to trigger a different approach.  A  day after Obama won the nomination, Clinton's campaign announced her exit from the race and her forthcoming endorsement of Obama.

On June 7, 2008,  at a speech in Washington D.C., Clinton suspended her campaign, conceded her defeat,  and pledged to support Obama's efforts to win the White House in November.  Clinton thanked the almost 18 million voters who cast ballots in support of her candidacy.  Clinton rallied her supporters -- many of whom were women seeking to transform the gender imbalances still prevalent in contemporary society.  She noted that although she had not succeeded in her mission, there were now "18 million cracks in the glass ceiling" preventing a woman from winning the White House.  Clinton then put forth a fervent call for her supporters to join her in helping to elect Obama to the presidency, saying that they shared the same goals for the future of the country.  She also adopted his campaign slogan of “Yes, we can.”

Responding the news of Clinton's heartfelt endorsement, Obama said that he was "thrilled" and characterized his former rival as an inspiring figure of strength and courage, committed to the "cause of working Americans."  In a clear sign that the tensions of the primary race were to be left in the past, Obama praised Clinton for her "valiant campaign"  to become the Democratic nominee for president. Moreover, Obama paid tribute to Clinton's groundbreaking campaign as the first serious female contender for the presidency saying that she had  "shattered barriers on behalf of my daughters and women everywhere."  The Obama campaign also called on its supporters to send messages of gratitude to the Clinton campaign.

Conclusion:  The presidential race was thusly set to go forward between Democrat Obama and Republican McCain.