Dr. Denise Youngblood-Coleman

The Political Intelligence Briefing is a report on significant political developments across the international spectrum. The Political Intelligence Briefing is written by CountryWatch's editor on a weekly basis and it is intended to inform CountryWatch users of important political events evolving in the world.

In this edition (May 9, 2008):

The "Featured Country" is the Lebanon.  The "Special Entry" looks at the Democratic race to the White House in the United States. The "International Hot Stories" cover:  Haiti, China, Tibet, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen,  Qatar, Cote d'Ivoire, Somalia, United States and Bolivia.  The section titled "In the News" looks at Burma. See also "Elections Updates" for coverage of  elections in Zimbabwe, Paraguay, Lebanon,  Tonga, Nauru and Serbia.  
 
Editor's Note: CountryWatch users can make use of the section called "Special Reports" accessible from the menu tabs on the main page of the CountryWatch website.  The current featured "Special Report" focuses on the United States and deals with the road to the White House,  as well as the congressional elections,  and the governors' races scheduled to take place in 2008.  This section is dynamically updated as new data becomes available.  As well, subscribers can use the drop down menu to see summaries of other major elections in the world.   
 

Featured Country

Middle East:  Lebanon

Hezbollah takes control over parts of Beirut

Even as Lebanon was once again delaying its presidential election due to lack of consensus among rival factions of parliament, the conflict between the supporters of the political opposition and the government was being played out in the streets of the capital city of Beirut.  Clashes between the two sides resulted in a number of deaths at the start of the second week of May 2008.  Included in the death toll were a mother and son, as well as a member of the parliament's security force. The central and southern parts of Beirut appeared to be most affected by the conflict, largely because it was an area inhabited by both Sunni and Shi'a Muslim communities. 

The violence was sparked when Hassan Nasrallah,  the leader of Hezbollah, characterized  the government's decision to close its telecommunications network as a "declaration of war."  The network had been deemed a threat to security. He thusly promised to "cut off the hand" trying to dismantle its operations.  On the other side of the equation, Saad Hariri, the leader of the pro-Western parliamentary majority, called for an end to the bloodshed saying, "My appeal to you is to stop the language of arms."  This call was not realized.   There were subsequent reports that Hezbollah attacked a media networks and offices  associated with Hariri in retaliation.   As well, Hezbollah had control over the airport and key transport arteries

Meanwhile, the Lebanese military warned that the country's security would be at risk if the crisis went on, and it also suggested that its neutral status could be compromised if it was forced to intervene to stop the violence. 

But by May 9, 2008, Hezbollah had control over the Muslim part of the Lebanese capital city of Beirut. This development came after several successive days of violence and bloodshed between Hezbollah and pro-government forces, reminiscent of the period in which the country had been plunged into a civil war.  Hezbollah's takeover of large swaths of Beirut  marked a disturbing escalation of the conflict over political power  into the realm of full-blown crisis.  To that end, the Western-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora said that an "armed and bloody coup" was taking place in his country.  Those in Siniora's government charged that Hezbollah was aiming to both  increase  Iran's influence and restore Syria's hold on Lebanon.  

Yet to be seen was the matter of whether or not Hezbollah would hold control over Beirut or cede power to the military. 

Editor's Note:  Since the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri -- a noted politician with an anti-Syrian orientation -- Lebanon has slowly retrenched into a state of dissonance.  The period was saw a short-term transformation  when  the Cedar Revolution that swept  pro-Western and anti-Syrian factions to power at the polls later that year, along with the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.  However, since that time, political stability  has devolved, es exemplified by  a spate of political assassinations blamed on pro-Syrian elements.  As well, Lebanon was the site that bore the brunt of the violence during the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel.  In recent times, the country has been caught in a political deadlock and intransigence over presidential succession, largely due to prevailing acrimony between pro-Syrian/pro-Hezbollah factions and pro-reform/Western-backed members in the Lebanese parliament.


Special Entry

Americas: United States

Democratic Primary Contest: Obama wins blowout victory in North Carolina; Clinton carries Indiana by razor thin margin

Summary: 

Clinton was hoping to capitalize on her post-Pennsylvania momentum in Indiana and North Carolina while Obama tried to regroup after a disappointing result in the Keystone State. All eyes were then turned to forthcoming primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, scheduled for May 6, 2008. Obama's blowout victory in North Carolina and competitive race to the finish in Indiana stemmed Clinton's tide.  Indeed, these results appeared to move Obama into the zone of presumptive Democratic nominee and raised questions of Clinton's continued viability.

Pennsylvania:

The Pennsylvania election for the Democratic presidential nomination was held on April 22, 2008.  The economy was the main campaign  issue for voters in Pennsylvania.  Both Democratic contenders were promising to deliver Pennsylvanians from the dire economic circumstances being endured across the country, but which has be particularly acute in the "Rust Belt" of America.  Both candidates promised to reconsider the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA),  while Clinton said she would take a hard line against China, and Obama excoriated lobbyists and corporate executives with exorbitant salaries.

In this way, Pennsylvania promised to be much like Ohio, which Clinton won in March 2008.  Clinton was also helped by demographics. Pennsylvania has been home to an aging population and has large swaths of blue collar and rural voters -- all of which have been integral parts of her voting base.  A third benefit to Clinton was that she had the support of most of Democratic establishment in the state, including that of uber-popular Governor Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Nutter and Congressman Jack Murtha.  By contrast, Obama's notable Pennsylvania support was limited to junior Senator Bob Casey and freshman Congressman Patrick Murphy. Obama was hoping to capture the youth vote at the many universities of Pennsylvania, upscale suburban voters, and African American voters in the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Polling data after the big March primaries showed Clinton with a 20-30 point lead over Obama - a clear indication that she had a strong advantage and was expected to win the state. Indeed, what came to be known as 'the delegate math' suggested that she had to win the state by landslide, followed by landslide victories in following states such as Indiana, North Carolina, and Kentucky, in order to have a chance of winning the nomination.  As the weeks progressed, though, Obama launched a tour across the state, and as he had in Ohio and Texas, managed to decrease Clinton's advantage by about half. With Obama closing in on Clinton, her campaign began to lower expectations, even suggesting that a 15-point  advantage on election day would constitute a major victory.  Political pundits, though, were warning that a single digit victory would hardly result in any significant pledged delegate advantage from Pennsylvania, and would not advance her case among superdelegates.

Democratic delegates include both pledged delegates (allotted as a result of candidates' performances in primaries and caucuses), as well as superdelegates (party insiders who vote for their preferred candidates on the basis of prerogative).  At the core was the reality that the winning candidate had to capture 2025 delegates.  To that end, Obama was closer to reaching the 2025 number than Clinton, who would have to score massive consecutive victories and a super delegate coup to get the nomination.  As such, Clinton was both energetically campaigning in Pennsylvania and arguing her case of electability to superdelegates.  Obama was campaigning hard in an effort to minimize Clinton's potential pledged delegate gain. 
 
In the background of these campaign developments was the fact that voter registration across the state was increasing -- notably among Democrats.  Thus, despite the increasingly acrimonious spirit of the Democratic race, which threatened to benefit Republican presumptive nominee John McCain in the general election, Democrats took solace in the fact that the size of the party was on an upward trend.

In the days leading up to the Pennsylvania primary, polls were contradictory.  A number of polling outfits (Rasmussen, Zogby and PPP) showed Obama drawing within single digits of Clinton; however, Survey USA showed Clinton maintaining a double digit lead.  There remained a high number of undecided voters. If Ohio were an indicator of what would happen in the Keystone State, then it was likely those undecided voters might break for Clinton.  On the other hand, much like Iowa where candidates had a lengthy period of time for voters to get to know the candidates, Obama was the ultimate beneficiary of late deciders.

Ultimately, Clinton carried Pennsylvania by a nine point margin of victory over Obama.  Yet to be determined was whether or not Clinton's margin of victory was big enough to substantially gain both pledged and superdelegates.  This nine point victory -- on the verge of double digits -- was regarded as helpful in keeping donors contributing to her campaign, which was plagued with money woes.   Meanwhile, the Obama campaign looked to voter turnout data showing that its candidate had made inroads in key demographic groups, such as white males, since Ohio.  For both Clinton and Obama, however, the ultimate result was that the final vote count, distribution of the voters and the pledged delegate split indicated little movement for either of them in the path toward the nomination.

Guam:

On May 3, 2008, voters in the Pacific island territory of Guam cast their ballots for the Democratic nomination.  Normally, Guam would not factor in a presidential race this late in the primary process, however, 2008 was a different story entirely thanks to the competitive nature of the contest.  Both Obama and Clinton expended their finances on advertising in Guam to make their respective cases.  Ultimately, Obama won the close contest over Clinton by a slim margin of victory of only seven votes.  In this way, the race for the Democratic nomination was no more decided than after Pennsylvania.

North Carolina and Indiana: 

After a decisive  win by Clinton in Pennsylvania April 2008, Obama tried to regroup but was quickly faced with the resurfacing story of his controversial pastor.  These two factors appeared to contribute to devolving poll numbers for Obama, while Clinton's populist message was gaining resonance, manifest by her higher polling results.  As noted above, the close race in Guam did little to move the race along.  All eyes were then turned to forthcoming primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, scheduled for May 6, 2008.

Clinton was hoping to capitalize on her post-Pennsylvania momentum to  claim a big victory in Indiana. She was aided by high level home turf support in Indiana, thanks to the support of Senator Evan Bayh. As well, the state was suffering from many of the same economic challenges as Ohio and Pennsylvania, and was home to a white working class population base.  Both of these factors, along with Bayh's support,  were expected to boost Clinton's chances in Indiana.  Meanwhile, Clinton was also hoping to be competitive in North Carolina.  While Obama had been earlier favored to win North Carolina, in large part because of the demographic advantage in that state,  Bill Clinton's aggressive campaign schedule in the Tarheel State appeared to be notably cutting into that lead.  

Polling data in the days before the May 6th contests showed Clinton sporting a clear advantage in Indiana and narrowing the gap significantly in North Carolina.  Should the two contests have ended with a clear victory in Indiana for Clinton, followed by a close race in North Carolina (if not an outright victory), she would have been expected to make a persuasive case for support to superdelegates.  But, in fact, only moments after the polls closed in North Carolina, it was apparent that Obama had rebounded from his difficult post-Pennsylvania period handily and had won the state by 14-15 percent.  In this regard, he outperformed the last round of polling data, and the sociometric overlay showed that he had improved his performance in key demographic groups (white, blacks and multiple income groups).   Clinton was not able to match Obama's significant victory in that state with an equivalent show of support in Indiana.  Instead, the state was relegated to the "too close to call" category for several hours.  Late into the night, Clinton was able to eke out a narrow win by a razor thin 1.5 percent margin. 

Attention then quickly turned to the viability of Clinton's continued candidacy. Attention also began to focus on  Obama's emerging position as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  

International "Hot" Stories

Americas: Haiti

New Haitian prime minister named after food riot debacle 

In the spring of 2008, Haiti was plagued by riots as crowds attempted to  storm the presidential palace in the capital of Port-au-Prince in protest of  food prices.  United Nations troops fired rubber bullets at the demonstrators in an attempt to quell the chaos. The unrest began in the southern city of Les Cayes and took a violent turn with the death of five people.  But there was no end in sight as Haitians expressed their frustration with the rising cost of living  and the continuing struggle for survival.  Indeed, hunger had become such a prevalent state in Haiti that the phrase  "grangou klowox" or "eating bleach" was becoming a commonplace colloquialism used  to describe the constant pangs of hunger; it was intended to convey the burning feeling of empty stomachs.

On April 13, 2008, as food riots were intensifying, the Haitian Senate passed a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Jacques Edouard Alexis, resulting in his removal from office.   The vote of no-confidence was supported by 16 of the 27 senators in an extraordinary parliamentary session.  At issue was Alexis' handling of the public's outrage of the escalating  price of food.  Nominated as head of government in 2006, Alexis managed to survive a no-confidence vote regarding his administration's stewardship of the economy in February 2008.  Two months later, he was not so fortunate.  In response to the political governments, Alexis did not elaborate on his political fate, saying little to journalists other than his removal from office was "unjust."

Prior to the parliamentary vote,  President Rene Preval had said he would support whatever decision parliamentarians made. With the prime minister's office vacant, President Preval said his priority would be finding a new head of government.  To that end, he said, "The game for me now is, I have to go find a new prime minister." In the interim, however, he said the government would address the immediate challenge of high food prices by decreasing the price of rice -- a food staple --  by close to 16 percent.  Also in the interim, Preval said his government would lower the price of rice by almost 16 percent. 

Meanwhile, the Organization of American States (OAS) urged regional powers to provide the small and impoverished Caribbean country with short-term assistance and poverty alleviation.  The OAS issued a statement warning that "unless something is done urgently, the situation could deteriorate even further."  Meanwhile, CARICOM Chairman and Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said the regional body was in communication with Haitian President Preval.  The head of the Caribbean bloc said it was hoping to offer financial assistance aimed at helping the suffering Haitian people.  As well, United Nations spokeswoman Michele Montas noted that the organization would prioritize giving  food provided by the World Food Program so that children, pregnant women and nursing mothers would be the first beneficiaries.  In the United States, Congressional representatives called for both debt relief for Haiti and food aid for that country.

Weeks later, President Rene appointed Ericq Pierre to be the new prime minister.  Pierre was an economist who had served as a senior adviser with the Washington-based Inter-American Development Bank.  Pierre's appointment was to be ratified by Haiti's parliament. 
  

Asia: China; Tibet

Dalai Lama's envoys hold talks with China

April 2008 saw continued anti-China demonstrations in Tibet, which sparked  violent clashes.  The conflict started in March and continued on through the next month.  By early May 2008, envoys of Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, convened talks with China in Shenzhen.   China's President, Hu Jintao, expressed hopes that the meeting  would yield productive results.  Chinese officials also said that further rounds of talks would be forthcoming.  A spokesperson for the Dalai Lama was more circumspect.  Tenzin Taklha said he hoped that the meeting would lead to a meaningful discussion about Beijing's repression on Tibet, but noted that China may view the meetings as merely part of a public relations campaign.  Regardless of the intent or agenda of either Beijing or the Dalai Lama, the wider international community has been urging both sides to engage in dialogue.

Editor's Note:  Tibet  enjoyed extensive periods of autonomy before the 20th century. In 1950, China launched an offensive on Tibet claiming that it was always part of China, and has since asserted that it holds sovereign authority over Tibet.  Since 1950, there has been a thrust to free Tibet from Chinese rule.  In 1959,  there was a violent and bloody  uprising, which resulted the Dalai Lama --  Tibet's spiritual leader --  fleeing to India where he has since lived in exile.

Asia: Afghanistan

Attack on Afghan leader leads to arrests

In late April 2008, a military parade attended by President Hamid Karzai was attacked.  A week later in early May 2008, Afghan authorities arrested two men in connection with the attack,  which killed three people, but spared the Afghan leader who was whisked away from the scene after gunshots were fired.  Among the dead were a child and a parliamentarian.  The two detained men were identified as a defense ministry employee and an interior ministry employee respectively.  As with other such attacks in Afghanistan, resurgent Taliban were ultimately deemed responsible for orchestrating the violence.  Intelligence chief Amrulleh Saleh said, "Al-Qaeda's role and involvement in the attack is very clear." Indeed, following the incident, a Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility saying that while Karzai was not directly targeted,  the extremist Islamic enclave wanted to demonstrate its access abilities.  To date, the Taliban has expressed the objective of  overthrowing  the Western-backed government of Afghanistan.

Middle East: Iraq

April deemed one of the bloodiest months in Iraq since the start of the surge

A report by hospital officials in Baghdad in late April 2008 noted that more than 400 people had been killed and more than 2,500 injured in violent clashes over the course of the month. The situation caused a grave strain on hospital resources.  The fighting was largely due to clashes between Shi'a militias and joint United States-Iraq forces in the Sadr Cit district of the capital city.  The area was a known stronghold of the Mehdi Army militia, led by the extremist cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr.  The month of April was also deemed significant for United States troops, which endured close to 50 deaths -- the highest number since September 2007 when 65 soldiers were killed in Iraq.

In the background of these developments was an emerging conflict between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki and Shi'a militia leader, Moqtada al-Sadr.  Maliki had attained power in part thanks to backing from the cleric but that bond was now crumbling.  While Maliki  promised to crush all militias -- Shi'a and Sunni alike, Sadr urged his supporters to continue their resistance of the United States occupation but without fighting fellow Iraqis.  Maliki was not helped when a bloc of Iraqi parliamentarians aligned with Moqtada al-Sadr issued a denunciation of the government using Koranic verse. The dissonance promised to complicate efforts to stabilize Baghdad.

Early May in Iraq marked by violence

By the start of May 2008, violence was on the rise in Iraq.  Twin suicide bombings ensued in Balad Ruz, to the east of Baquba, as a party of wedding guests traveled through the area.  One suicide bombing was detonated by an explosives-laden belt worn by a woman; the other was detonated by a man among bystanders.  These attacks were blamed on Sunni extremists aligned with al-Qaida in Iraq.  At least 35 people were killed and more than 65 were injured.  Elsewhere in Iraq, a bomb exploded in Baghdad, killing nine people; the target appeared to be United States troops.  Meanwhile, Sadr City was the site of further violence and bloodshed. On May 2, 2008, a roadside bomb in the Sunni western province of Anbar left four United States marines dead.  Then, on May 4, 2008, the wife of President Jalal Talabani narrowly escaped unscathed when an improvised explosive device  went off close to  her convoy in Baghdad as she traveled to a festival at the National Theatre. On the same day, female journalist Serwa Abdul-Wahab was dragged from her car and shot to death   in the northern city of Mosul.

Middle East: Yemen
See also Middle East: Qatar

Attempts made to salvage Shi'a-Yemeni truce

In the spring of 2008, attempts were underway by mediators from Qatar to salvage a truce between the Yemeni government and Shi'a extremists.  At issue has  been the Shi'a Zaidi rebellion, which led to the rise in violent attacks in certain regions of the country since  2004.  The two sides agreed to a  ceasefire but peace efforts quickly dissolved and fighting resumed in 2007.  In April 2008, a Yemeni legislator and member of the country's ruling party was  assassinated.  Then, in early May 2008, a bomb exploded at a mosque leaving 18 people dead.  The period has also been marked by ongoing violence, resulting in the deaths of both Shi'a rebels and security forces. 

Editor's Note:

At issue has been the claim by the Shi'a rebels that the government of Yemen is too closely aligned with that of the United States, which has itself provided supplies and training to Yemen's security forces under the aegis of the "war on terror." The rebels also blame the government for both corruption and discrimination. But Yemen's leadership has accused the northern Shi'ite rebels, led by Abdulmalik al-Houthi, of trying to oust the democratic government and advancing Shi'a theocratic rule in the country.

Africa: Cote d'Ivoire

Disarmament of Ivorian ex-rebels commences 

The spring of 2008 saw  former rebels Cote d'Ivoire commence the process of disarmament despite their ongoing control over the northern portion of the country.  The process began when 1,000 of the New Forces rebels put down their weapons, and others promised to follow suit in the forthcoming months.  The rebels were expected to then integrate into the national military or assimilate into civilian life. The rebels said they were taking this action six years after the conflict began because the war was finally over.  Also anticipated were elections scheduled to take place in November of 2008. 

Africa: Somalia
See also Americas: United States

Somalis rail against United States strike

In early May 2008, the United States issued a missile strike in Somalia that was reportedly aimed at al-Qaida aligned targets in that country.  The deadly strike was reported to have indeed killed the leader of an Islamist extremist group that the United States said was linked to al-Qaida.  Approximately 10 other individuals were also killed in the strike.  Days later, more than 1,000 residents of the central Somali town of Dusamareb took to the streets to protest the United States' missile attack and to rail against the Bush administration.  Many people said they were afraid that further strikes might take place.


Americas: Bolivia

Illegitimate referendum in Bolivia ends in support for regional autonomy

In May 2008,  the resource-wealthy Santa Cruz region of the country conducted an illegitimate referendum aimed at conveying greater autonomy.  In Santa Cruz, a sweeping 80 percent of voters backed the proposal for more regional control. These types of referenda aimed at attaining increased autonomy were expected to take place in other regions in the future.  The thrust for greater autonomy from La Paz has been a prevailing issue for several years in Bolivia  and has divided the country between (1) the wealthy regions, who have generally supported the opposition and have demanded more power, and (2) the indigenous majority who have supported President Morales' centralized power paradigm and have insisted on being beneficiaries of all of the country's resources.   For his part, President Morales dismissed the illegal vote but noted that dialogue with governors of these regions was necessary.  

In the News

Asia: Burma (Myanmar)

Deadly cyclone kills thousands in Burma (Myanmar)

In early May 2008, a tropical cyclone battered  Burma (also known as Myanmar), killing more than 4,000 people and destroying thousands of buildings including more than 20,000 homes.  The government admitted that scores were killed in Rangoon alone and that the overall death toll across the country could rise as high as 10,000.  That number was subsequently upgraded to a shocking 100,000. The Irrawaddy region of the country was hardest hit.  Four other regions of the country were also affected, including the main city of Rangoon, as well as Bago, Karen and Mon.  Tens of thousands of survivors were made homeless as a result of the Cyclone Nargis and vast swaths of the country were described to be akin to a "war zone" in appearance. 


Election Updates

Africa: Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe election result still unresolved

As of May 2008, the result of the Zimbabwe elections remained unresolved and in doubt.  The official results from the presidential race gave  Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader of  Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) the most votes (47.9 percent compared Mugabe with 43.2 percent) but not an outright victory, thus necessitating a second round.  But the MDC has rejected this result claiming victory for itself and accusing the authorities of cheating on the vote count.  As such, the MDC has not signed off on participating in the run-off election.  Should  Tsvangirai foreclose participating in the second round, incumbent Robert Mugabe would win automatically retain the presidency.

Americas: Paraguay

Summary

The presidential election of Paraguay was set for April 20, 2008.  The candidates were: Fernando Lugo (Patriotic Alliance for Change, APC), Lino Oviedo (National Union of Ethical Citizens, UNACE), Blanda Ovelar, Pedro Fadul (Beloved Fatherland Movement) and other independent candidates.

All of the candidates seemed very concerned about the financial polarization of their society.  The inequality of the poor appeared to be the number one issue for the candidates as they campaigned on their platforms.  Other issues  included corruption in the government.  This was viewed as an historic campaign, as the perennial political strong-hold, the Colorado Party, was quite weak.

Along with the presidential race, the parliament was also being contested.   The parliamentary election was also set for April 20, 2008.  The parties in the running were:  The Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC), the National Union of Ethical Citizens (UNACE), Colorado Party (CP), the Beloved Fatherland Party (PQ), the Partido Encuentro Nacional (PEN), the Partido Liberal Radical Autentico (PLRA), the Partido Pais Solidario (PPS), and other independent candidates.

Outcome:

In presidential election in Paraguay, Lugo was the victorious winner and was set to become the new Paraguayan president. Lugo secured  41 percent of the vote. His Colorado Party rival, Blanca Ovelar, took 31 percent and former army chief Lino Oviedo had 22 percent with most of the votes counted.  It was a historic win for the Catholic Bishop who has fought on behalf of the poor and downtrodden, and his historic victory ended the Colorado Party's grip on power.  There was no information available at the time of writing for the results in parliament.

Pacific: Tonga

Summary:

A parliamentary election was scheduled for April 23, 2008.  Up to 71 candidates registered to participate in the election, including eight women. Tonga does not have registered political parties, so all candidates were to run as independents.  As evidenced by the riots following the appointment of the new King of Tonga in 2006, a government that is by the people and for the people will be on the voters’ minds.  The Tongan people have voiced their desire for a completely popularly elected government and will favor those members of the participating parties that will aim to bring fully representative and democratic governance to the table.

Outcome: 

Tonga's pro-democracy parties won the most votes.  Akilisi Pohiva, a leader within the pro-democracy bloc and aligned with the Human Rights and Pro-Democracy Movement (HRPDM),   was the individual winning the most votes.


Pacific: Nauru

President of Nauru declares state of emergency and sets path for snap elections to be held

On April 18,  2008, Nauru's  President Marcus Stephen declared a state of emergency, invoked executive powers and dissolved parliament.  The president said that he was taking these actions because recent events had  “seriously compromised” the political process.  He also declared that snap elections would be held within a week. The presidential statement read as follows:  “The president of Nauru, Marcus Stephen, has today invoked his executive powers and declared a state of emergency in order to dissolve parliament and call a general election, to be held on 26th of this month."

At issue has been the fractious state of political affairs in the small Pacific island country since former President Ludwig Scotty was ousted from office in December of 2007. President Scotty was ousted after a series of no confidence votes -- the last of which moved against him.   Marcus Stephen was chosen at the time to be the new head of state.

Since then, President Stephen's time in office has not been marked by smooth sailing.  First, he had only a slim majority  in the country's 18-seat parliament.  As well, he had to accept the former foreign minister David Adeang -- one of the sources of scandal that led to the ousting of President Scotty  -- as the new speaker in the parliament.  Adeang and Stephen had long been rivals of sorts.  But rivalry was only a small measure of the challenges being faced.  In his new capacity, Adeang convened  an extraordinary meeting of parliament in March 2008 in which he tried to ban parliamentarians with dual citizenship from being seated in the chamber.  That move would have had a direct effect on President Stephen, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Kieren Keke, and Commerce Minister Frederick Pitcher from entering parliament.

Such moves, according to President Stephen, seemed oriented toward making  "a mockery of parliamentary process"  and the constitution. President  Stephen also said, “They are showing no signs of allowing us to get on with the business of governing for the good of our people."  As such, he was calling on the people to deliver their judgment as to the future path of the country.

Outcome: 

Three members of the opposition lost their seats to supporters of the current President Marcus Stephen, ending the deadlock that had been holding the government back for the past several months.  The first date set to convene the new parliament was April 29, 2008.

Middle East: Lebanon

Summary:

An indirect presidential election was set to take place in Lebanon on April 22, 2008.  That date was postponed yet again until May 13, 2008.  The election was intended to bring an end to the impasse that had plagued the country since the departure of former President Lahoud.  However, no election would take place unless the Western-backed government and Hezbollah-allied opposition  could come to agreement on the backing of a consensus candidate.   This newest delay after several successive postponements marked the lack of consensus on the matter of the presidency.  The candidates in contention were:  Nassid Lahoub, Michael Aoun, Michel Suleiman, Michael Edde, Riad Salameh, Boutros Harb, Jean Obeid and other independent candidates.  

Europe: Serbia

Summary:

Serbia will hold parliamentary elections on May 11, 2008. The election comes in the wake of the presidential election, as well as Kosovo's declaration of independence, which contributed to the fall of the outgoing government and the disbanding of parliament. 

The newly elect, and also incumbent, President of Serbia Boris Tadic formed a coalition between his party, Democratic Party, and the largely popular G17+ to form a new coalition entitled For a European Serbia-Boris Tadic.  The other parties involved in this coalition were Sanjak Democratic Party, Serbian Renewal Movement, and League of
Social Democrats of Voivodina. The Democratic Party of Serbia was to run in coalition with New Serbia under the leadership of Prime Minister Kostunica, who was presented for the position of prime minister. The Serbian Radical Party presented 250 candidates for the elections and they were to run alone, since their candidate for president, Tomislav Nikolic, lost to Boris Tadic only a few short months prior.  The Socialist Party of Serbia and the Party of United Pensioners of Serbia formed  a coalition with a stronger party, United Serbia, and presented over 200 candidates for the election.

The parties in contention: -- For a European Serbia-Boris Tadic (Coalition of the Democratic Party, G17+, Serbian Renewal Movement, League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina), Democratic Party of Serbia-New Serbia, Serbian Radial Party, Socialist Party of Serbia-Party of United Pensioners of Serbia-United Serbia, Liberal Democratic Party, Reformist Party, Serbian Strength Movement, Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, Bosniac Democratic Party of Sanjak, Roma Union of Serbia, Party for Democratic Action, Roma Party, Sanjak Democratic Party, Serbian List for Kosovo-Metohija and other independent parties.

Polls: -- Between April 14-20, 2008, the CeeSID took a poll of 4.3 to 4.7 million Serbian voters and their results were as follows: Serbian Radical Party: 36 percent of the vote (90 seats), For a European Serbia-Boris Tadic: 33 percent of the vote (83 seats), Democratic Party of Serbia and New Serbia Coalition: 12 percent of the vote (30 seats), Liberal Democratic Party: 8 percent of the vote (20 seats), Coalition of Socialist Party of Serbia, United Serbia, and United Pensioners of Serbia: 7 percent of the vote (17 seats), and independents with 4 percent of the vote (10 seats.)


Note --

Upcoming elections include: Dominican Republic (May 16), Kuwait (May 17), Georgia (May 31), Mongolia (June 8), Iceland (June 28) and Cambodia (July 27). The date for Guinea-Bissau's parliamentary election is officially set for November 16, 2008. Elections in Cote d'Ivoire are expected to be held November 2008.


Late-week emerging stories --

President Medvedev inaugurated in Russia  while Putin moves into prime minister role; Berlusconi asked to form government in Italy; run-off election in Zimbabwe may not take place for a year; official results released in Nepali election; Lebanon shaken by conflict with Hezbollah .  See "Intelligence Wire" for details.    

Reminder to Readers

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- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
   Houston, Texas