Dr. Denise Youngblood-Coleman

The Political Intelligence Briefing is a report on significant political developments across the international spectrum. The Political Intelligence Briefing is written by CountryWatch's editor on a weekly basis and it is intended to inform CountryWatch users of important political events evolving in the world.

In this edition (June 30, 2009):

The "Featured Country" is Honduras. The "International Hot Stories" include coverage of: Iran, United Kingdom, Iraq, Israel, Palestinian Territories,  North Korea, Burma (Myanmar), Singapore, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, United States,  Venezuela, Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, Madagascar, Mozambique,  and Nigeria.   The section titled   "Government and Politics" looks at Niger, Ethiopia and Lebanon.  The "Elections Update" covers Albania, Argentina and Guinea-Bissau.

Featured Country

Americas:  Honduras

Summary: Military ousts Honduran President Zelaya from office over controversial referendum; deposed president forced into exile in Costa Rica; Congress uses questionable letter of resignation to inaugurate new president; international community condemns coup while U.S. presses for Zelaya to be reinstated

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On June 28, 2009, the Honduran military ousted President Manuel Zelaya -- the president of the Central American country of Honduras -- from office, forcing him into exile in Costa Rica. Reports on the ground in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa said that hundreds of military troops with riot shields surrounded the presidential palace.  President Zelaya was then taken from his home and flown to Costa Rica. As well, eight government ministers were detained, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Patricia Rodas and Presidential Secretary Eduardo Enrique Reina.  Meanwhile, tanks were said to be rolling through the streets and air force jets were flying overhead, according to the Associated Press.

The de facto coup d'etat occurred in reaction to the ongoing power struggle over the president's plans to change the constitution of the country. At issue was his plan to constitutionally extend his four-year non-renewable term in office. A referendum on the matter had been planned for June 28, 2009, but before it could be held, the Supreme Court ruled that it was illegal. President Zelaya decided to go forward with a non-binding referendum to ascertain the popular will of the people.  But the situation took an acrimonious turn when President Zelaya refused a court ruling to re-instate the chief of the army, General Romeo Vasquez, who refused to comply with the president's order that he assist with the organization of the referendum. Ahead of the opening of the polls on voting day, the military had short-circuited the voice of the people. The Supreme Court later defended the actions of the military, saying that it was defending democracy.  It was unlikely that the court and the military would be contradicted by the legislative branch of government since the referendum had been resisted by the Congress of Honduras, including members of the president's own party.

Notwithstanding the political establishment's opposition to the (now) non-binding referendum, the military's actions were not well-received by all factions of Honduran civil society.  Indeed, protestors were seen throwing rocks are the soldiers, while screaming "Traitors!  Traitors!"  The situation turned violent when police fired tear gas at hundreds of President Zelaya's supporters who had gathered to register their discontent in a public rally outside the presidential palace.

But the sentiment of this portion of the Honduran citizenry was not considered when the country's Congress read a resolution accusing Zelaya of "manifest irregular conduct" and representing a "danger" to state law, presumably in response to the president's decision to move forward with the referendum, despite the Supreme Court's ruling against it. The Congress then  voted to accept a letter of resignation, purported to be from President Zelaya, by a show of hands.  That letter, which the congressional secretary Jose Alfredo Saavedra claimed was written by the president, indicated that Zelaya was resigning because of "the polarized political situation" and "insuperable health problems." Whether or not the letter, which was dated days earlier, was actually genuine, was a matter of debate. Nevertheless, the legislative body then appointed congressional president, Roberto Micheletti, as the new president of Honduras.   Micheletti’s first act as president was to institute a curfew.

For his part, deposed President Zelaya described what happened to him after he arrived at the airport in Costa Rica.  He said he was awakened by the sound of gunfire and tried to dodge flying bullets between soldiers and his own security guards for about twenty minutes.  Zelaya said he was then kidnapped by soldiers and  forced to board an air force jet, which took him to Costa Rica.  Zelaya denied writing any letter of resignation, and made it clear that he would not recognize any interim government and was holding onto power until the end of his term in January 2010.  In fact, he indicated that he would attend a scheduled meeting of Central American leaders in Nicaragua then next day.  During a telephone interview on the Venezuela-based Telesur television network, Zelaya said, "There is no way to justify an interruption of democracy, a coup d'etat." He continued, "This kidnapping is an extortion of the Honduran democratic system."

Zelaya blamed the situation on the Honduran elite, whom he said opposed his plans to try to bring economic relief to the impoverished masses.  To that end, he said, “ This was a plot by a very voracious elite, which wants to keep this country in an extreme level of poverty."  Rafael Alegria, a labor leader in Honduras and a political ally of Zelaya, urged people to take up peaceful protests.  In an interview on Honduran radio Cadena de Noticias, he declared,  "We demand respect for the president's life. And we will go out into the streets to defend what this has cost us: living in peace and tranquility."

In other developments, there were reports that Honduran military leaders and other key politicians had been in contact with the United States, seeking support for their plan to wrest power from Zelaya.  According to the Associated Press, the United States made clear it would not support any coup.  This scenario indirectly coincided with statements made by Zelaya himself ahead of the actual coup.  In an interview with Spain's El Pais newspaper that took place before his removal, Zelaya appeared to be aware of efforts by his opponents to oust him from power, but believed at the time that such efforts had been thwarted because the United States would not sanction such action. "Everything was in place for the coup and if the US embassy had approved it, it would have happened. But they did not."  He continued, "I'm only still here in office thanks to the United States." But apparently, significant military and political players in Honduras decided to go forward with the coup days later, even though the United States refused to support any  moves aimed at deposing Zelaya from power.

Meanwhile, the international community responded to the news from Honduras with outrage. President Zelaya's ally in the region, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, said the deposed Honduran leader had been the victim of an illegal coup d'etat.  He also accused Honduran troops of temporarily detaining and assaulting the Venezuelan and Cuban ambassadors in that country in a flagrant violation of diplomatic practice. Chavez warned that his country was not "at battle" and he was putting the Venezuelan military on alert.

Chavez' outrage was echoed by the European Union, which decried the undemocratic transfer of power. In addition, an emergency meeting was convened in Washington of the Organization of American States (OAS). The OAS issued a condemnation of the ousting of President Zelaya, characterizing it as "a coup."  The OAS also asserted it would not recognize the illegal authority of the new government and the body's Permanent Council called for the "immediate, safe and unconditional return" of Zelaya to his office as president. As well, Mercosur -- the regional bloc made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay -- condemned the coup and said it would not recognize any Honduran authority besides Manuel Zelaya.  Days later, the United Nations General Assembly  approved a resolution demanding the reinstatement of ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya, while the World Bank said it would institute a "pause" in lending to Honduras.

United States President Barack Obama said he was "deeply concerned" by  the ousting of Zelaya.  In a statement, President Obama called for a return to democracy as follows:  "I call on all political and social actors in Honduras to respect democratic norms, the rule of law and the tenets of the Inter-American Democratic Charter."   Making clear the  United States' position,  the American president also characterized the removal of Zelaya from the presidency as "illegal."  Underlying the United States' stance, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned the actions by the Honduran military and legislative branch.  United States diplomats were also said to be working to ensure the safety of Zelaya and his family.  The New York Times reported that officials in Washington were pressing for the return of Zelaya to power in Honduras.

Editor's Note:  President Manual Zelaya of the left-leaning Liberal Party came to power in 2006.  His term in office was scheduled to end in 2010, barring a constitutional change allowing him to extend his tenure.  It was that issue, which was to be put to the voters in a referendum, that led to the responses by all quarters of the Honduran establishment, with the military, Supreme Court, and even the Congress, acting to ensure that such a move would not take place.  Until this case, Honduras -- a poor country dependent in the export of coffee and bananas -- endured military coups two times before; in 1963 and 1972, the military  overthrew the elected presidents of Honduras.  Civilian governance was not restored following the 1972 coup d'etat until 1981, largely as a result of pressure from the United States.  But this latest military coup d'etat was the first undemocratic transfer of power in Honduras in almost three decades.  Indeed it is one of few undemocratic transfers of power in the Western Hemisphere in recent times.



International Hot Stories

Middle East: Iran
See also Europe: United Kingdom; Americas: United States

Ongoing post-election protests in Iran; relations with West deteriorate

Two weeks after its contested presidential elections, Iranian protestors continued to take to the streets in defiance of the government's warning that dire consequences were in the offing.  On June 24, 2009, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini's repeated decrees that demonstrators should stop their mass action went unheeded and they braved the streets to register discontent over the Iranian leader's assertion that he would "not yield" over the election results, which the government said made incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner over reformist candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi.

There was speculation that the ire of the opposition protestors had fueled, in part, by the well-publicized and horrific video footage of a young Iranian university student being gunned down as she exited a car and bled to death on the street. Regardless of their actual motivation, pro-reformist protestors and supporters of Mousavi rallied in the streets and clashed with Iranian riot police, according to reports from eye witnesses.  Police fired tear gas at the crowds, shot live ammunition into the air, and used clubs to beat some protestors, in an effort to disperse the crowds. 

Editor's Note: These reports could not be verified by mainstream international journalists, who have been severely restricted from freely reporting post-election developments in Iran. 

For his part, Mousavi was not seen in public, although the wife of the reformist candidate, Zahra Rahnavard, urged protestors to continue their opposition and called for the release of those detained since the disputed election took place. Among those detained were several employees of Mousavi's newspaper as well as 70 academic scholars. Speaking via Mousavi's website,   Rahnavard said, "It is my duty to continue legal protests to preserve Iranian rights." she was quoted as saying on the website.

According to Reuters, one of Mousavi's fellow presidential candidates, moderate Mehdi Karoubi, joined the chorus in denouncing the government as "illegitimate."  Karoubi said,  "I do not accept the result and therefore consider as illegitimate the new government. Because of the irregularities, the vote should be annulled." 

The proverbial "line in the sand" between the two sides was hardening, because as the reformists and moderates stood in solidarity, so too did the conservatives and hard liners join ranks.  In fact, hard line cleric Ahmad Khatami said that protestors should be dealt with "severely and ruthlessly"  and demanded harsh retribution for those daring to defy the regime.  Addressing worshippers at Tehran university, he said: "I want the judiciary to... punish leading rioters firmly and without showing any mercy to teach everyone a lesson."

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime was not only taking severe action against the press, but was now stepping up its efforts against Western governments, which it blames for spurring on the protests.  Indeed, Iran expelled two British diplomats for "activities incompatible with their status" and said it was considering downgrading bilateral ties with the United Kingdom.  In retaliation, the United Kingdom asked two Iranian diplomats to leave the country. Across the Atlantic, the United States rescinded invitations to Iranian diplomats to attend Independence Day celebrations.

A day later, on June 25, 2009, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned United States President Barack Obama to "avoid interfering" in Iranian affairs. Ahmadinejad was presumably reacting to President Obama's forthright critique of Iran's crackdown on the protestors during  a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.  President Obama said that the Iranian people had a universal right to assemble and express their voices freely.  He also expressed praise for the opposition demonstrators, saying, "Their bravery in the face of brutality is a testament to their enduring pursuit of justice. The violence perpetrated against them is outrageous." Thus, in response to the sharpened language coming from the American president, Ahmadinejad posed a question of President Obama, "Do you want to speak with this tone? If that is your stance then what is left to talk about?" He also accuse President Obama of behaving like former President George W. Bush. 

But the international community appeared fairly unified in its condemnation of Iran's treatment of opposition protestors.  Foreign ministers from the major industrialized countries, known as the G8, were meeting in Italy and issued a shared statement deploring the post-election violence in Iran. The statement additionally said: "We express our solidarity with those who have suffered repression while peacefully demonstrating and urge Iran to respect fundamental human rights."

The streets of Tehran went quiet for a few days but erupted in clashes between riot police and thousands of protestors once again on June 28, 2009.  As before, police used tear gas and clubs against the protestors in an effort to disperse the crowds.  One particularly brutal account by eyewitnesses involved the beating of an elderly woman close to the Ghoba Mosque.  Again, these reports could not be verified due to severe restrictions on journalists working in Iran.

Meanwhile, Iran's relationship with the West devolved further after local employees of the British Embassy in Tehran were arrested.  Iran accused them of inciting protests but British Foreign Secretary David Milliband said Iran was guilty of "harassment and intimidation." The European Union issued its own condemnation of the arrests of the embassy employees and demanding their release.  The European bloc also appeared to issue a warning of sorts to Iran via a statement that read, "harassment or intimidation of foreign or Iranian staff working in embassies will be met with a strong and collective EU response."

Middle East: Iraq
See also Americas: United States

Ahead of U.S. troop withdrawal, Baghdad bombing leaves scores dead

On June 22, 2009, around 30 people died in various attacks in Baghdad.  In the Shaab district in the north of the capital, three people died including a child, while five people died in the Karrada district of Baghdad.

On June 24, 2009, at least 70 people died  and more than 130 were injured after  a bomb exploded in the Sadr City enclave of Baghdad.  Authorities said that a bomb was hidden under a cart carrying vegetables on sale in a marketplace in the mostly Shi'a part of the Iraqi capital. It was one of the deadliest attacks in Baghdad in 2009 and came ahead of the scheduled withdrawal of United States troops from Iraqi cities, towns and military bases within days by a deadline of June 30, 2009.

On June 26, 2009, more than a dozen people were killed and scores more wounded as a result of a bomb attack in Baghdad. The bomb was placed on a motorcycle in the city center.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki responded to the recent bombings by trying to calm the Iraqi people and offering assurances that Iraqi forces would be able to protect them when United States troops withdrew.  The Iraqi leader said the spate of attacks were intended to "awaken sectarianism and create chaos, and prevent the Iraqi people from standing on their own feet."  It was not known if such statements will assuage the people who were becoming increasingly anxious and angry about the security situation in Iraq and the ability of Iraqi security forces to do enough to protect them.

Then on June 30, 2009, the day of the United States' exit from Iraq's cities, towns and military bases, yet another attack ensued in the northern oil city of Kirkuk.  Around 30 people were killed as a result of a  car bomb at a market in the Shurja district.  United States President noted the day was a significant milestone for Iraq, but warned that Iraq would yet be faced with "difficult days" in the  future.

Middle East: Israel, Palestinian territories

Palestinian PM calls for independent state in two years

In late June 2009, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad called for the creation of a Palestinian state within a two-year timeframe.  He said, "I call on all our people to unite around the project of establishing a state and to strengthen its institutions ... so that the Palestinian state becomes, by the end of next year or within two years at most, a reality."  Speaking at al-Quds University in East Jerusalem, Prime Minister repeated the Palestinian Authority's demand that Israel stop its settlement activity in the West Bank in order to pave the way for  talks between the two sides.  While settlements remained a prevailing obstacle to restarted peace negotiations, Prime Minister Fayyad introduced a new sticking point by calling for a Palestinian capital in Eastern Jerusalem.

On the other side of the equation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for the notion of a demilitarized Palestinian state, pending recognition of Israel as a Jewish state.  But, while the Israeli prime minister has said that his country would not construct new settlements in the West Bank,  he has said Israel would not stop the "natural growth" of existing settlements. Moreover, Netanyahu has asserted that Jerusalem -- Israel's official capital city -- should remain "united."  That is, he made clear that he would not support the partition of the city as part of the creation of a Palestinian state.

Asia: North Korea
See also Asia: Burma (Myanmar), Singapore; Americas: United States

Korean ship reportedly carrying  weapons to Burma (Myanmar); U.S. renews sanctions on North Korea

In late June 2009, the United States military was reportedly tracking a North Korean ship -- the Kang Nam 1 -- under suspicion of carrying banned cargo.  At issue was the heightened sanctions regime approved by the United Nations Security Council, which provided for the increased inspection of North Korean cargo by all United Nations member states, the destruction of any materials suspected of being linked to weapons of mass destruction, and a complete prohibition of the sale of heavy and small arms by North Korea. 

The ship being tracked was under the North Korean flag, traveling in Asian waters, and, according to South Korean intelligence, was believed to be carrying small arms in violation of the latest United Nations Security Council resolution, and moving toward Burma (Myanmar).  For its part, Burma (Myanmar) has been subject to an arms embargo from the United States and the European Union and so has pursued weapons from North Korea.  In this case, Burma (Myanmar) has denied that the Kang Nam 1 was headed for its port city of Yangon.

Despite this report, it was unlikely that some kind of interception on the ocean would ensue, especially since North Korea said such action would be regarded as an act of war.   The United Nations resolution makes clear that if there is information suggesting that the cargo  being carried on a ship contains banned weapons, then North Korea would be asked to give consent for authorities of another country to board the vessel for inspection.  But if North Korea refuses to give consent, then the vessel must move to a port for the required inspection.  Accordingly, a high seas interception - something North Korea has said it would consider an act of war - was unlikely. That said, as the Kang Nam 1 makes its way, it could well be forced to enter a port to refuel.  To that end, attention was on Singapore as a likely destination. Once the ship was in port, Singapore would be faced with the question of whether or not it would attempt to inspect the cargo on the vessel and risk the ire of the North Koreans.

In other developments, United States President Barack Obama  renewed its sanctions -- separate from the United Nations sanctions -- against North Korea.  President Obama explained that North Korea's nuclear development combined with threats posed a national security risk to the United States and destabilized the region of eastern Asia. The American president also said his administration would end the cycle of responding to North Korean nuclear threats by granting concessions and incentives to Pyongyang.   Meanwhile, the United States, North Korea's neighbors and the wider international community all braced for a possible missile launch by Pyongyang in the direction of Hawaii -- a presumed act of retaliation for the new sanctions.  Earlier, President Obama had said the United States military was prepared to deal with any of contingencies posed by  a possible North Korean missile launch. 

Asia: Burma(Myanmar)

World awaits verdict in trial of Aung San Suu Kyi

In late June 2009, the world awaited the verdict in the trial of Burma's (Myanmar's) opposition and pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, for violating terms of her house arrest as a result of a visit by an uninvited American man.  Aung San Suu Kyi with was charged under the Law Safeguarding the State from the Dangers of Subversive Elements and her trial began in May 2009.  That trial has been largely decried by the international community as a sham, in which the outcome has been pre-determined by the ruling military junta who do not want the pro-democracy icon free and able to motivate voters in forthcoming elections.  Should she be found guilty, Aung San Suu Kyi could be sentenced to a maximum term of five years in jail. Such a ruling would extend her time in detention well beyond the time set for elections in 2010. For her part, Aung San Suu Kyi has maintained her innocence. 

Asia: India

India bans Maoist communist party 

In late June 2009, faced with violent attacks by Maoist rebels, the Indian government officially banned the Maoist Communist Party of India on the basis that it was a terrorist group. Indeed, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh characterized the Maoist rebels as posing the greatest internal security threat to the country.  The move provided enhanced powers of arrest, including the detainment of party members whether or not they are involved in terrorist activity. As well, the Indian government deployed troops to certain key areas of the country where the Maoist rebels have been active, with the objective of retaining control.  Indeed, one area of West Bengal was said to be under total Maoist control, and the Indian government warned that five states around the eastern and central part of the country could be subject to Maoist attacks, particularly in crowded areas traversed by civilians. In fact, Maoist landmine blasts had already left a hefty death toll on Indian security forces. Meanwhile, in response to the new offensive by the Indian military, the Maoists were actively spurring dissent and had orchestrated a two-day strike.

Asia: India, Pakistan

India demands that Pakistan deal with terrorists who seek to attack India

In late June 2009,  Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh demanded that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari deal with the Islamic extremist terrorists seeking to attack India.  Prime Minister Singh said that peace talks were off the proverbial table unless President Zardari acted against Pakistan's largest terrorist organization,  Lashkar-e-Taiba, which was responsible for the horrific Mumbai (Bombay) terror attacks in November 2008. Under pressure from the United States, Pakistan was already carrying out an offensive against al-Qaida and the Taliban.  But despite the public attention on those two groups, Lashkar-e-Taiba was in fact the most significant and active extremist organization operating and orchestrating attacks from within Pakistani terrain. 

Asia: Pakistan

As Pakistan carries out anti-Taliban offensive, rival of Taliban leader shot to death

In late June 2009, a rival of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud, was shot to death. The murdered militant commander, Qari Zainuddin, was known for speaking out against the Pakistani Taliban leader. The move dealt a likely blow to the Pakistani  government, which was hoping to  defeat  Mehsud, who is allied with al-Qaida, and who was accused of  being behind a host of  bomb attacks, including the assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007.

In a related development, Mehsud was reported to have escaped alive after a United States drone aircraft fired a missile into a Taliban stronghold in South Waziristan. Mehsud and his close associates were attending the funeral of a Taliban commander in the country's tribal areas when the drone attack took place.  While dozens of people were reported to have died, Mehsud was not among them as he had already left the funeral.

Asia: Afghanistan

UN employees killed in Afghan car bombing

A roadside bomb has killed three Afghan employees of the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) in Afghanistan's northern Jowzjan province in late June 2009.  The provincial governor, Hashim Zari, placed the blame on  the Taliban.  It was yet another instance of rising violence by the resurgent Taliban.  That said, the attack  took place in the northern part of the country, which has been regarded as somewhat safer than the more volatile southern and eastern portions of Afghanistan.  Accordingly, there was some concern about the potential spread of violence by the Taliban across the country.

Asia: Kyrgyzstan; Americas: United States

Kyrgyzstan and United States agree to transshipment route for military wares and personnel to Afghanistan

In late June 2009,the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan forged an agreement with the United States that would permit the transportation of American military equipment  and troops to Afghanistan via an air base in the Central Asian state. The new deal reportedly came with a price tag three times greater than the previous cost.   Months earlier, in February 2009, Kyrgyzstan's President Kurmanbek Bakiyev  issued a decree evicting United States troops from the Manas air base, on the basis of insufficient payment.  The move shocked the United States and evoked questions as to Kyrgyzstan's motives.  There was some speculation that Russia, which eschews the presence of Western military powers on its borders, may have been behind the move.  But Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev said his government had grown increasingly worried about the increasingly violent landscape in Afghanistan and the possible destabilization of  the Central Asia region. Regardless of actual motive, the new agreement, which was approved by a Kyrgyz parliamentary committee, would allow the Manas air base to remain open, while also permitting United States forces to transport necessary arms and ammunition to fight the Taliban and al-Qaida in  Afghanistan. 

Americas:  United States, Venezuela

U.S, and Venezuela set to restore envoys

In late June 2009, it was announced that the United States and Venezuela were set to restore diplomatic envoys respectively.  Venezuelan Foreign Minister  Nicolas Maduro said his country would send its ambassador back to Washington, several months after the envoy was withdrawn in the midst of  a diplomatic imbroglio involving an alleged United States plot against Bolivian President Evo Morales. At the time, Venezuela expelled the United States envoy from Caracas in a move intended to show solidarity with Bolivia.  The United States reacted by expelling the Venezuelan ambassador from Washington. Now, with bilateral relations between the two countries far less heated, in some measure as a result of a new Obama administration in the United States,  Maduro also noted that "fluid communication"  between the two sides was set to resume.  Both Maduro and a United States official confirmed that the United States would send its own ambassador back to Caracas.

 
Europe: Kosovo, Serbia
See also Europe: Bulgaria

Former PM of Kosovo arrested for war crimes

In late June 2009, the former prime minister of Kosovo, Agim Ceku,  was arrested in Bulgaria on the basis of war crimes charges. While Ceku has not been indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in the Hague, there have been indictments made against him by Serbian courts.  In this case, the Bulgarian Interior Ministry said that Ceku was detained under the aegis of a prevailing Interpol arrest warrant, which was initiated by Serbia, as he crossed the border from the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.  

Serbia has accused Agim Ceku  -- a former rebel commander with the Kosovo Liberation Army -- of committing war crimes during the 1998-99 war in Kosovo before it declared its independence from the Yugoslav successor nation state of Serbia. At issue were Serbia's claims that Ceku had "command responsibility" in regard to the killing of close to 700 Serbs and 18 others.  Yet to be determined was the matter of whether or not Ceku's detention in Bulgaria would be extended, or, if he would be extradited to Serbia.  There was also the possibility that he might be released. 

For his part, Ceku, who has been regarded as a key player in the independence struggle at home in Kosovo,  has vigorously denied the allegations against him.  Should he be extradited to Serbia, already-strained relations between Kosovo and Serbia were likely to devolve. 

Africa: Madagascar
See also Africa: Mozambique

Former president of Mozambique appointed to mediate Madagascar crisis

In late June 2009, leaders in southern Africa appointed the former president of Mozambique,  Joaquim Chissano, to mediate the ongoing political crisis in Madagascar. At issue was the violent power struggle that erupted earlier in 2009, ultimately  resulting in  President  Marc Ravalomanana being ousted from office when the military-backed opposition, led by Andry Rajoelina, launched something of a coup and proclaimed himself to be the country's new leader. Meanwhile, the political situation in Madagascar has remained unresolved. Negotiations brokered by the United Nations to form some sort of consensus government pending fresh presidential elections have seen no progress.  One of the key sticking points in the negotiations has been the matter of amnesty.

The United Nations and France have both warned against the use of military intervention to end the political crisis plaguing that country, while the regional trade bloc, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa), has argued that such action might be necessary in order to re-establish constitutional order in Madagascar.  France and the United Nations said that dialogue, perhaps brokered by the African Union,  should be used to resolve the situation. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Eric Chevallier said, "We feel that military intervention is not the right idea."  Meanwhile, Tiebile Drame, a United Nations envoy, decried Comesa's suggestion saying, "This sort of statement does not help. We don't need this kind of declaration.  The appointment of Chissano appeared to be a compromise move aimed at resolving the crisis in a manner acceptable to all stakeholders.

Africa: Nigeria

Nigerian president offers 60-day amnesty for Niger Delta militants

Faced with the threat of ongoing destabilization of the Niger Delta, Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua unveiled a proposal for a 60-day amnesty for militants operating in the Niger Delta. "I hereby grant amnesty and unconditional pardon to all persons who have directly or indirectly participated in the commission of offences associated with militant activities in the Niger Delta," President Yar'Adua said. The proposal, which was intended  to bring an end to attacks by militants wanting a greater share of the region's oil resources, was approved by Nigeria's Council of State. Explaining its utility, President Yar'Adua said, "I am hopeful and confident that by the end of this year, we will have a secure and stable environment in the Niger Delta."

Included in the presidential pardon were provisions for a rehabilitation program, as well as additional education and training for militants willing to put down their arms and re-enter society.  It was yet to be seen if the militants -- particularly those of the largest militant group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), would be willing to participate in the amnesty program.  Indeed, before the president's announcement, MEND claimed responsibility for an attack on an oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell.

Government and Politics

Africa: Niger

President of Niger assumes emergency powers

In late June 2009, President Mamadou Tandja of Niger announced he would assume sweeping emergency powers.  President Tandja took this measure in the aftermath of a court ruling that made it clear that he could not could not extend his time in office.    In a televised address, the president said he was assuming these special powers "because the independence of the country is threatened."

At issue was a referendum aimed at allowing the president to have an additional three more years in office.  Niger's Constitutional Court ruled that the referendum was, in and of itself, unlawful. But President Tandja has argued that the will of the people should be heard.

The actual will of the people, however, was not a singular  concept shared by all citizens of Niger.  While President Tandja's supporters have lauded him for administering economic growth in the country, thusly making him deserving of more time in power,  protestors -- particularly among the ranks of labor unions and trade unions -- have taken to the streets to register their opposition to the president's plans to remain in power.  Indeed, opposition leaders have urged civil disobedience and mass demonstrations. Meanwhile, some political parties in the country -- including the Democratic and Social Convention, which held ministerial portfolios -- resigned from government. As well, even the country's parliament distanced itself from the president and was rewarded by having its session dissolved. Meanwhile, the international community, including international donors, have also decried President Tandja's move to assume broad executive powers.

Nevertheless, the referendum was set to go ahead on Aug. 4, 2009, irrespective of the ruling by the Constitutional Court or the rising tide of disapproval.  Interior Minister Albade Abouba said, "The vote will indeed be held. All the votes scheduled for this year will go ahead."  In addition to the referendum, early general elections were set for Aug. 4, 2009, in Niger.

Africa: Ethiopia

Ethiopian PM says he's preparing to step down

In late June 2009, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said he was preparing to step down from office. Prime Minister Meles  Zenawi said he had already commenced discussions on the matter with his colleagues in the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front -- the ruling party in Ethiopia. In an interview with the Financial Times, Prime Minister Meles  Zenawi  said, "My personal position is that I have had enough." Meles came to power in 1991 when his guerrilla group ousted former Marxist ruler, Mengistu Haile Mariam, from office.  Ethiopia was set to hold  parliamentary elections in June 2010, and the move could be a way for the Ethiopian head of government to manage his exit from the political scene without hurting the electoral chances of his party, Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, at the polls.

Middle East: Lebanon

Hariri  expected to be named new Lebanese PM

Fresh on the heels of election victory, Lebanese majority leader Saad Hariri said in an interview with Italian media that he was ready to lead a new government.  On Italy's Italian TV Rai Uno, Hariri said,  "I did not have the experience and was not ready after my father's assassination to take office, but now after four years I do not fear taking this position."

Of course, Saad Hariri was  referring to his father, former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in a car bomb in Beirut on Feb.14, 2005. Saad Hariri became the leader of the coalition that won election in what came to be known as the "Cedar Revolution" just after his father's assassination.  However, the younger Hariri did not lead the government, instead leaving that task to  Prime Minister Fouad Seniora.  Going forward, though, Hariri was indicating that he had effectively earned the right to head the new incoming government.

Striking an assertive tone, Hariri said, "We are keen on doing what the Lebanese want and not what the United States, Europe or Israel want."  He also said the new government would be fully representative  and that his hands were outstretched to political opponents "for the interest of Lebanon."  This statement was viewed as a veiled hint toward the Shi'ite militant group, Hezbollah, especially as he made clear that his government would solve its problems via dialogue and not with violence.

On June 27, 2009, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman announced that Hariri would be the country's new prime minister. In this way, the younger Hariri would take on the role once held by his late father.  Prime Minister-designate Hariri was tasked with forming a new government, which he said would include  members of the opposition.  It was not known if the opposition membership in government would extend to Hezbollah.  That said, there was a sense that Lebanon was entering a period of stability after several years of insecurity and volatility that came with Rafiq Hariri's assassination and continued well after the so-called Cedar Revolution, reaching its nadir during the war between Hezbollah and Israel.

Elections Update

Europe: Albania

Primer on Albanian election

On June 28, 2009, Albanian Prime Minister Sali Berisha was faced with a difficult political fight as voters went to the polls to cast their ballots.  Prime Minister Berisha and his center-right government were faced with a strong challenge from Socialist Party leader Edi Rama, who had also served as mayor of Tirana and was well-known in Albania as a flamboyant artist.

Since the fall of communism in 1990, Albania has seen several elections -- none of which have met international standards.  All eyes were on Albania to determine if this time, the election would go off without reports of voter fraud and irregularities. The period leading up to election day was not without challenges.  In fact, there were three deaths -- including that of the regional leader of the Christian Democratic Party -- all of which were believed to be politically-motivated.

Cognizant of the fact that the national elections were widely seen as a key test of the strength of Albania's democracy and political stability at a time when the country was seeking entry into the European Union (EU), Prime Minister Berisha said: "We shall do our utmost until the Albanian star shines in the EU's proud flag." His main opponent, Rama, also conjured up the EU as he addressed Socialist Party supporters saying," There is no reason why Albania cannot be a beautiful lady among others at the EU."

The EU aside, Prime Minister Berisha has argued that he deserved re-election on the basis of his political success. These included accession to NATO and application to the EU, an improved business climate, and increased salaries for health and education workers.  As well, the prime minister campaigned on his pledge to advance new energy development. But Berisha's government has also been beset by scandals involving the very corruption he promised to stave off in the previous election.  To that end, the opposition has accused him of seeking to enrich himself and his family by exploiting public funds. Indeed, Rama said of Berisha: "I don't want to be a prime minister who exploits the country to serve a corrupt group of people that has kidnapped the government." For its part, the opposition has expressed similar goals as the incumbent government, such as poverty alleviation, job creation  and affordable health insurance for all citizens.

Just ahead of the election, polling data indicated that the two main political parties -  Berisha's Democratic Party and Rama's Socialists - were in a tight race to the finish. At the time of writing, there were no official election results available.  However, international monitors indicated that the election was taking place without much of the problems that had plagued previous polls.

Americas: Argentina

Peronists bracing for loss of majority in legislative elections

On June 28, 2009, Argentines went to the polls to vote in mid-term parliamentary elections.  While the vote count was not final at the time of writing, early results indicated that President Cristina Fernandez's ruling Peronist party was on track to lose its majority control of both houses of Congress.  In a particularly personal blow, the president's husband,  Nestor Kirchner,  conceded after losing in Buenos Aires province -- normally a stronghold for Peronists.  To that end, his loss in Buenos Aires was to a dissident Peronist, Francisco de Narvaez. Kirchner said, "We have lost by one-and-a-half or two points and we have no problem recognizing it."

President Cristina Fernandez succeeded her husband, former President Kirchner, in 2007.  In the last two years, her political fortunes have been on a downward slide as Argentina has been beset by economic woes, complaints of governmental incompetence, as well as increasing crime.  Doubts about the president were not helped by an ongoing contretemps between the Kirchners and the country's agricultural sector over the issue of taxes. Yet to be seen was whether or not there would be a power struggle within the Peronist party ahead of the 2011 presidential elections.

Africa: Guinea-Bissau

Despite spate of political assassinations, presidential election goes forth

Guinea-Bissau was set to hold a presidential election on June 28, 2009. The poll came in the aftermath of the March 2009  assassination of President Joao Bernardo Vieira, which was thought to be an act of revenge by the military for the death of the army chief.  A spate of political assassinations, also believed to have been carried out by the military, marked the period leading up to the election.  As a result, a climate of intimidation and insecurity characterized the election landscape.

Eleven candidates were contesting the election, although the main contenders were believed to be Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling party,  former President Henrique Rosa, and former President Kumba Yala.  Sanha, of the ruling Independence of Guinea- Bissau and Cape Verde  (PAIGC), served as the president of the National Assembly between 1994 and 1999. He was named to head the transitional authority from 1999 to 2000. A candidate for the president in 1999 and 2005, he lost to Yala and Vieira respectively. He has been regarded as the front runner in the 2009 election. Rosa, with no party affiliation, led the National Electoral Commission in 1994. He functioned as interim president of Guinea-Bissau from September 2003 to October 2005, and organized the legislative elections in 2004 and the presidential election in 2005.  Yala, of the opposition Party of Social Renovation (PRS), was a teacher of philosophy and a former member of the PAIGC. Elected president in 2000 and ousted in September 2003 in a coup d'etat, he  went in exile in Morocco. He returned to Guinea-Bissau in October 2006 and  was elected the leader of the PRS in 2008.  All three main contenders have vowed to bring stability to Guinea-Bissau. 

At the time of writing, there was no official result available.  If no candidate receives an outright majority of the vote share, then a second election round  could be held.

Forthcoming elections include -

June-July 2009: possible time period for Gabon's presidential election
July 5, 2009: Bulgaria's parliamentary elections
July 5, 2009: Mexico's parliamentary elections
July 8, 2009: Indonesia's presidential election
July 12, 2009: Republic of Congo's presidential election
July 18 or 21, 2009: Mauritania's presidential elections (delayed from June 2009)
July 23, 2009: Kyrgyzstan's presidential election
Aug. 2, 2009:  Comoros parliamentary elections
Aug. 4, 2009: Niger's general elections * (competing dates; new date could replace date listed below)
Aug. 20, 2009: Afghanistan's presidential election
August 2009 is tentative date for Moldova's fresh parliamentary election with a presidential election to follow
Sept. 8, 2009 is tentative date for second round of Indonesia's presidential election
Sept. 14, 2009: Norway's parliamentary elections
Sept. 27, 2009: Germany's parliamentary elections
September 2009: Portugal's parliamentary elections
September 2009: Angola's presidential election
September 2009: Saint Kitts and Nevis parliamentary elections
September 2009: Japan's parliamentary elections
Oct. 9. 2009: Czech Republic's parliamentary elections
Oct. 11, 2009: Guinea's parliamentary elections
Oct. 25, 2009: Uruguay's presidential and parliamentary elections
Oct. 25, 2009: Ukraine's presidential election
Oct. 25, 2009: Argentina's legislative elections* (competing dates; delayed)
Oct. 28, 2009: Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections
October 2009: Tunisia's presidential and parliamentary election
October 2009: Botswana's general elections
Nov. 14, 2009: Niger's presidential election (first round)
Nov. 28, 2009: Niger's parliamentary elections
Nov. 28, 2009: Romania's (first round) presidential election
Nov. 29, 2009: Presidential election in Cote d'Ivoire
Nov. 29, 2009: Honduras' presidential and parliamentary elections
November 2009: Namibia's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 6, 2009: Bolivia's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 6, 2009: Niger's tentative date for second round of presidential election
Dec. 11, 2009: Chile's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 12, 2009: Romania's (second round) presidential election
Dec. 13, 2009: Guinea's (first round) presidential election
Dec. 27, 2009: Guinea's (second round) presidential election
December 2009: Uzbekistan general elections
December 2009: Algeria's parliamentary election
No date specified for presidential elections in Vanuatu and Chad; delayed elections in Madagascar, Yemen and Fiji


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- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
Houston, Texas