Dr. Denise Youngblood-Coleman

The Political Intelligence Briefing is a report on significant political developments across the international spectrum. The Political Intelligence Briefing is written by CountryWatch's editor on a weekly basis and it is intended to inform CountryWatch users of important political events evolving in the world.

February 2010 Intelligence Briefing:

The "Featured Country" is Ukraine. The section titled, "International Hot Stories," includes coverage of: Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, North Korea, Mongolia, Burma (Myanmar), Nigeria, Sudan, Romania, Ireland, United Kingdom,  United States,  Venezuela and Haiti.  The "Special Entry" looks at the economic situation in the European countries of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. "Elections Update" covers:  Sri Lanka, St. Kitts and Nevis, Costa Rica, Greece and Ukraine.

Featured Country:

Europe: Ukraine

Pro-Russia Yanukovych claims victory over Prime Minister Tymoshenko in close presidential vote

Summary: 

The first round of Ukraine's presidential election on Jan. 17, 2010 ended with incumbent pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko shut out of the second round, set for Feb. 7, 2010.  On that day, pro-Russia opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych -- Yushchenko's 2004 rival -- was seeking victory over Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Yushchenko's one-time ally in the "Orange Revolution" with whom he  had more recently become embroiled in a power struggle.  Exit polls and preliminary results indicated Yanukovych was headed for a narrow election victory and was on track to become Ukraine's new president.  Tymoshenko was expected to challenge the result, given the closeness of the race.

Background:

In April 2009, the Ukrainian parliament voted to hold a presidential election on Oct. 25, 2009.  The establishment of a clear date for the presidential race brought an end to a period of political uncertainty over the timing of the election for the position of head of state.   But that date did not stand for long with a new date set for Ukraine's presidential election on Jan. 17, 2010.

By October 2009, ahead of the election, Viktor Yushchenko's popular support had collapsed into single-digit range and he was not expected to win re-election.  This left the two main contenders in the presidential race to be   Viktor Yanukovych, the incumbent president's rival in 2004, and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.  Yanukovych seemed to be leading Tymoshenko but without an outright majority.  Accordingly, analysts prognosticated they would be the two top vote-getters and would contest the election  again in a runoff vote after the first round was completed.  It was hoped that the impending presidential vote would bring an end to the power struggle that has marked the political landscape in recent times, effectively complicating any significant policy-making in Ukraine -- a country hard-hit by the 2008 global financial crisis and corresponding economic downturn.

Briefing on first round of Ukraine's presidential election --

In January 2010, ahead of election day, there were suggestions that pro-Russia Yanukovych could return to power, with a Kiev International Institute of Sociology poll showing that Yanukovych would garner 30 percent of the vote in the first round and 43 percent in the second round. His closest competitor, Tymoshenko, would get 16 percent in the first round and 29 percent in a run-off.  Of course, in keeping with common sentiment, incumbent Yushchenko would carry less than 10 percent and be denied the second round.

In fact, the results in the January elections were in keeping with poll predictions with Yushchenko eliminated thanks to only five percent of the vote share, and with Yanukovych and Tymoshenko headed for a run-off election on Feb. 7, 2010, to decide which one would become president.  According to the exit polls, Yanukovych was in the lead with more than 31 percent of the vote. In actual votes, with 75 percent of the ballots counted, Yanukovych was carrying about 36 percent.  However, Tymoshenko appeared to have enjoyed a better-than-expected election performance with more than 27 percent in the exit polls and 25 percent in the partial vote count.  The result was a warning for Yanukovych that ultimate victory in the second round - where the presidential race was headed - was not at all guaranteed.
 
Perhaps sensing that she had a serious chance to win the top spot in Ukraine, Tymoshenko said the exit poll results showed that most Ukrainians wanted to be part of  a free, democratic country - an apparent suggestion that Ukraine under Yanukovych would not offer such an end, and that the "Orange" pro-democracy movement was still very much alive.  Indeed, she seemed to be appealing to pro-democracy constituents for a consolidated vote in the run-off saying, "The democratic forces will be united. We will do everything so that in the future they will act in a single and powerful force to move the country toward European civilization."

For his part, Yanukovych maintained that he would win the presidency.  With his base of voters coming from the industrial, largely Russian-speaking eastern part of the country, Yanukovych conjured up the issue that he knew would resonate well with his constituents.  He promised that, as president,  he would ensure that Ukraine did not join NATO. He said, "The Ukrainian state will remain outside any bloc. Ukraine will never join any military alliance. That's the view of the Ukrainian people, it must be respected and taken into account."

It was not known how the outcome of the second round would affect Ukraine's position in the world.  Unlike Yushchenko, who stated that his main goal was getting Ukraine into the European Union and NATO, Yanukovych - as noted here -- has taken a position in opposition to such moves consistent with his pro-Russia orientation.  Tymoshenko has called for closer ties with Russia, however, she has stopped short of the more emphatic pronouncements by Yanukovych.  In many senses, this has placed her in a more advantageous position to gather cross-over votes in the second round since she has not repelled the pro-Russian types, but she has also been a fervent pro-democracy voice. Meanwhile, Yanukovych would likely garner  the cross-over votes from some of the smaller socialist and communist parties, and would not be regarded as an attractive choice among the pro-democracy and pro-Western factions.  Still, it was Yanukovych who was going into the Feb. 7, 2010, second round with the vote count advantage from the first round.

Results of the second round of Ukraine's presidential election --

On February 7, 2010, exit polls in Ukraine indicated that pro-Russia Viktor Yanukovych was on track to capture a narrow election victory. The exit poll data appeared to forecast Yanukovych with a lead of several percentage points over Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.   The National Exit Poll gave Yanukovych  48.7 percent of the vote over Tymoshenko with  45.5 percent. An ICTV exit poll showed Yanukovych securing a larger lead of  49.8 percent over Tymoshenko with 45.2 percent.  Partial results appeared to coincide with  a Yanukovych lead of about four percent, but by the time most of th votes were counted, his lead had dropped to just under three percent.  Nevertheless, Yanukovych was headed for a narrow election victory and was on track to become Ukraine's new president.  Tymoshenko was expected to challenge the result, given the closeness of the race

With an eye on seizing legitimacy as the new Ukraianian president, Yanukovych declared early victory saying, "From this day, a new path opens up for Ukraine," and pledging to "take the country down the path of change." Yanukovych also called on Tymoshenko to accept the results of the election.   In a report by Interfax, Yanukovych said, "I think Yulia Tymoshenko should prepare to resign, she understands that well."

For her part, the prime minister refused to concede defeat, noting that "It is too soon to draw any conclusions."  Instead, as reported by Reuters, Tymoshenko was marshaling her supporters to carry out a "parallel count" and calling on her team to "fight for every result, every document, every vote." Indeed, Tymoshenko, was unlikely to yield easily. Known for following her independent inclinations, Tymoshencko  has enjoyed populist appeal both at home and abroad for her pro-democratic inclinations during the first rigged election of 2004, which itself prompted the "Orange Revolution," as well as her willingness to challenge Yanukovych in more recent times. 

Of course, on the other side of the equation, Yanukovych who came so close to gaining the presidency in 2004 was hungry for the victory that was finally so close to his grasp.  

Of note was the fact that the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, which deployed an election observation mission, seemed to dismiss allegations of vote fraud.  Matyas Eorsi, the head of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,  characterized the election as "calm" and "professional" and noted that there was no sign of voting irregularities. 

Commentary:

Should the exit polls and preliminary hold, then Yanukovych would have pulled off a significant political revival, five years after being denied the presidency as a result of the bloodless "Orange Revolution" that swept Viktor Yushchenko to power. Indeed, his victory would be a clear repudiation of the success of the "Orange Revolution" if not its actual objectives.  To that end, survey data has indicated that while most Ukrainians support the political and economic objectives of the 2004 "Orange Revolution," they have become increasingly cynical about the country's leaders to actually deliver on their promises. 

This political climate aside, a confirmed victory by Yanukovych would most certainly herald a more eastern bent in the realm of  foreign policy, marked by strengthened ties between Kiev and Moscow.  Still, in his election speeches, Yanuvovych took a moderate stance and refused to become ensconced in the dichotomy of the West vis a vis Russia.  Instead, he  advocated that Ukraine improve ties with its many neighbors. In this regard, Tymoshenko herself has also called for improved ties with neighboring countries including Russia, despite Yanukovych's depiction as being the pro-Russia candidate.

Perhaps of equal -- and  more immediate -- importance would be the ultimate election winner's handling of the economy.  The country was particularly hard-hit by the 2008 global financial crisis, as evidenced by currency's crash, the concomitant dissolution of Ukrainians' savings, as well as the fact that the gross domestic product (GDP) fell by close to 15 percent in 2009.  Despite a bailout by the International Monetary Fund, experts from the World Bank have warned that Ukraine will see very limited growth in 2010.  Clearly, this economic terrain was fraught with a plethora of challenges. 

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International Hot Stories:

Middle East: Iran

Iran intensifies its uranium enrichment prompting the U.S. to call for united action

In defiance of the international community,  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on his country's nuclear head, Dr. Ali Akbar Salehi, to intensify  uranium enrichment.  The move was essentially a fulfillment of an earlier threat by Iran to enrich uranium at a higher purity level of 20 percent. At issue has been Iran's prevailing claim that it is entitled to carry out a civilian nuclear program, aimed at generating energy.  This claim has been disputed by several countries of the West, and Iran's case has been compromised by revelations of clandestine nuclear development facilities. 

This development came after Iran rejected a compromise deal to transfer its low enriched uranium outside its terrain for processing into fuel rods and, instead, imposed an ultimatum of its own. Specifically, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki warned that his country would enrich uranium at the higher purity level (20 percent) if the West did not meet its counter-demand that nuclear fuel be sold to Iran or nuclear fuel be swapped for Iran's low-enriched uranium.  Of significance has been the fact that civilian nuclear power requires uranium enriched to about only three percent, whereas weapons grade uranium has to be enriched to 90 percent.  Intensification beyond the three percent range has, therefore,  signaled alarm bells across the globe.

Clearly, the situation marked a further deterioration of relations between Iran and the West, and prompted the British Foreign Office to issue a statement asserting:  "This would be a deliberate breach of five UNSCRs [United Nations Security Council Resolutions]."  As well, the United States called for united global action in the face of a possible Iranian nuclear threat.  With sanctions in the offing, United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that while there was time for the proposed sanctions to work, the world would have to "stand together."  During a visit to Italy, Gates said, "Pressures that are focused on the government of Iran, as opposed to the people of Iran, potentially have greater opportunity to achieve the objective." 

Middle East: Iraq

Female suicide bomber kills more than 40 in Baghdad; suicide bombing in Karbala kills Shi'a pilgrims

On February 3, 2010, a series of suicide bombings in the Iraqi city of Karbala left at least 20 Shi'a pilgrims dead and scores more injured. The pilgrims were traveling  to the Imam Hussein shrine to commemorate Arbaeen when the suicide bomber drove a car laden with explosives into the crowd, detonating the bomb.  The attack occurred two days after a female suicide bomber killed more than 40 people and wounded at least 100 others in north-eastern Baghdad.  The violence was thought to be linked to impending parliamentary elections, now set for March 2010.

Middle East: Iraq

Iraqi appeals panel allows candidates tied to Saddam Hussein to contest elections

In January 2010, the  Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission ordered that more than 500 Iraqi politicians be prohibited from contesting the  March 2010 parliamentary elections due to their supposed links to Saddam Hussein's Baath party. That decision left several Sunni secular leaders, as well as some Shi'a politicians,  out of contention, and earned criticism from the international community.

On February 3, 2010, an Iraqi appeals panel ruled in favor of allowing hundreds of candidates with alleged ties to former President
Saddam Hussein's regime to participate in the country's parliamentary elections set for  March 2010. The ruling  postponed a review of the politicians on the "banned" list, essentially allowing them the ability to contest the elections, and effectively nullifying the decision by the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission. 

But a day after the appeals panel ruled in favor of the banned candidates, the Iraqi government weighed into the equation.  The government said that allowing politicians with ties to  Saddam Hussein's regime to contest the country's elections was both "illegal" and "unconstitutional."

Asia: Afghanistan

Civilians flee southern Afghanistan ahead of NATO offensive

In the first week of February 2010, civilians fled portions of Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan ahead of a planned  NATO offensive into that region. The International Committee of the Red Cross said that it was unable to properly quantify the number of people who fled the region since many went to stay with relatives rather than register with emergency relief services.  It also  acknowledged that some individuals simply refused to leave due to concern over their agricultural fields and the risk of traveling on winter roads.  That being said, emergency relief services were busy gathering food and tents to accommodate an influx of people fleeing  the region.

For its part, the Taliban appeared to be making their own plans for the operation by gathering weapons and rocket-propelled grenades, presumably aimed at reinforcing their positions. 

The United States, which has been leading the NATO operations in Afghanistan, has said that the offensive is aimed at flushing militants out of the town of Marjah -- a Taliban stronghold and major opium-production center -- in the southern province of Helmand.  The United States military did not specify a date for the offensive operation but began dropping leaflets informing people of the impending action.  That action appeared to have a two-fold purpose: While notification was intended to give warning to civilians to remove themselves from the crossfire of violence, it was also a warning to specific militants -- who were names in the leaflets -- to vacate the area of risk being killed. 

The United States commander on the ground, General Stanley McChrystal, said the success of the operation was not focused so much on the military action or even the element of surprise, but on the ability of the government to convince civilians that it could provide for their well-being.  That is to say, the real success of the mission would be measured in the Afghan government's ability to demonstrate that it could take on the key leadership position in the region, rather than Taliban militants and drug traffickers playing that role.

Meanwhile, in an article published by the New York Times, McCrystal struck a similar tone noting that the war was less a military one that a matter of perceptions.  He said,  "The biggest thing is in convincing the Afghan people ... This is all a war of perceptions. This is not a physical war in terms of how many people you kill or how much ground you capture, how many bridges you blow up. This is all in the minds of the participants"

Asia: Pakistan

Pakistani Taliban select new leader amidst rumors of Hakimullah Mehsud's death

On February 4, 2010, it was reported that the Pakistani Taliban had selected Malik Noor Jamal, also known as Mullah Toofan, as their new  "caretaker" leader.  The move appeared to be linked with circulating rumors of the death of Taliban  chief Hakimullah Mehsud following a mid-January 2010 air strike by United States aircraft on Taliban hideouts near the border between North and South Waziristan.  That air strike was aimed at eliminating Hakimullah Mehsud who succeeded Baitullah Mehsud in 2009 as the head of the Pakistani Taliban, when the latter Mehsud was himself targeted by a United States air strike.  For its part, United States officials would not confirm whether or not Hakimullah Mehsud was actually dead, although news reports by newspapers, such as the New York Times, took that position.

Asia: Pakistan

Double bomb attack in Karachi

On February 5, 2010, a double bomb attack on Shi'a pilgrim in the Pakistani city of Karachi left more than 30 people dead and at least 165 injured. The first attack was caused by an explosives-laden motorcycle and targeted a bus carrying Shi'its to a religious procession,  The second attack occurred outside the emergency entrance to the Jinnah Hospital where victims were being taken for treatment.  The attacks appeared to have targeted Shi'a Muslims commemorating the Arbaeen religious festival and sparked fears of increasing sectarian violence between Shi'a and Sunni Muslims.  Indeed, more than a month earlier in December 2009, a suicide bomber targeted Shi'a worshippers at another major religious festival in Karachi,  effectively sparking riots.
 

Asia: North Korea

North Korea fires artillery shells at maritime border with South Korea

On January 29, 2010, North Korea reportedly fired artillery shells in the area of the Yellow Sea, close to the country's  maritime border with South Korea.  It was third day that North Korea had carried out such action, according to the South Korean military.  Speculation abounded that the provocative action by North Korea may have been aimed at forcing the United States and South Korea to respond to its proposal for a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War, which has effectively ceased via a prevailing armistice rather than an actual peace agreement.  North Korea has argued that it cannot advance further denuclearization talks without the foundation of a peace treaty.

Asia: North Korea

Grim economic situation in North Korea may be driving return to multilateral talks

As of February 2010, reports from Reuters indicated that dire economic conditions in North Korea has led not only to mass starvation of already-impoverished North Korean citizens, but also growing unrest and social destabilization as a result of these realities.  The situation has led to speculation that North Korea may be under pressure to end its boycott of multilateral denuclearization talks, with an eye on gaining international aid.  Indeed, North Korea's recent actions -- both its provocative firing of artillery shells as well as its newly-found desire for a peace agreement -- are related to its underlying desire to return to the negotiating table, knowing that any likely agreement would also contain humanitarian aid. 

Asia: Mongolia

Extreme weather conditions pose existential crisis for Mongolians

The start of 2010 has been marked by extreme weather conditions in already-frigid Mongolia where a particularly harsh winter has left about 200,000 people at risk, according to the United Nations.  With temperatures plunging to -50 degrees Celsius across the country, as well as the drought of 2009 leaving a shortage of animal fodder, as much as 1.7 million livestock have died, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization. In a country where more than one-third of the entire population is nomadic and dependent on livestock for their livelihoods, a humanitarian disaster was in the making.  Accordingly, the government of Mongolia has called on the aid community for food, funds, medicine and warm clothes for its people.

Asia: Burma (Myanmar)

Conflict between armed forces and ethnic insurgent groups intensifying
In Burma (Myanmar), conflict between the country’s armed forces and ethnic insurgent groups was intensifying. At issue has been the government’s plan to transpose armed opposition groups that signed cease-fire agreement into Border Guard Forces.  The situation has ultimately led to increased displacement of people in the states of Shan and Karen  since June 2009. The number of displaced people grew to more than 500,000 by the latter months of 2009, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center.

Africa: Nigeria

Transfer of power from Nigerian president to deputy?  Court gives president days to prove capable of rule

In early 2010, attention in Nigeria was focused on President Umaru Yar'Adua's ability to lead the country while he recovered from a heart condition at a hospital in Saudi Arabia.

President Yar'Adua had been away from his post and, indeed, the country for close to two months at the time of writing.  During that period, he did not hand over power to his deputy, in accordance with the constitution. This failure to ensure that presidential power was being wielded by someone at the helm resulted in an infuriated outcry across Nigeria, and led to four court cases on the matter.  In one such court case, a federal high court n the capital city of Abuja ruled that the Vice President could legally exercise all the powers of the presidency, if the actual president was absent from the scene, although he/she could not be officially designated "acting president" unless the president legally enacted that transfers of power.

For his part, President Yar'Adua said in an interview with the BBC that he expected to return to Nigeria as soon as his doctors deemed it possible.  Nevertheless, on Jan. 22, 2010, the Nigerian Federal High Court in Abuja gave the Executive Council of the Federation two weeks to prove that ailing the president Umaru Yar'Adua was, indeed, capable of performing his duties.  Meanwhile, the court empowered Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to perform executive duties in the absence of President Umaru Yar'Adua.

By February 6, 2010, BBC News reported that President Yar'Adua would hand over power to his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan, who was already acting president.  While no precise timeline was offered, it was expected that there would be no delay in the transition of powers, in order to prevent a power vacuum.

Africa: Nigeria

MEND rebels end cease-fire

On January 30, 2010, an already fragile and short-lived cease-fire between the government and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta rebel group (MEND) came to an end.   Rebels from MEND said that they were ending their cease-fire and would resume attacks on targets of Nigeria's oil industry.  As reported by the Times of Nigeria, MEND officials said:  "It is sufficiently clear at this point in time that the government of Nigeria has no intentions of considering the demands made by this group for the control of the resources and land of the Niger Delta to be reverted to the rightful owners, the people of the Niger Delta." MEND officials also charged that the Nigerian government was offering stakes in regional oil ventures as a way of dividing loyalties between groups in the Niger Delta region.

 
Africa: Sudan

Fighting within  Darfur rebel group leads to exodus of people

In February 2010, fighting within one of Darfur's rebel groups led to an exodus of  at least 10,000 people from their homes in the volatile Jabel Marra region.  The area of western Sudan has already been fraught with violence and associated humanitarian crisis, so this development has served only to exacerbate an already-challenging situation.  At issue in this particular case has been the fracturing of Darfur rebel groups in recent years, effectively increasing instability and complicating the peace process there.

Africa: Sudan

ICC instructs pre-trial chamber to consider genocide charges against Sudanese president

On February 3, 2010, the International Criminal Court (ICC) ruled on additional genocide charges against Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir related to actions in Darfur.  The judges at the ICC found that the Pre-Trial Chamber had improperly dismissed the genocide charges against President al-Bashir.  Accordingly, they reversed the decision that prosecutors had provided insuffient evidence to include genocide in the charge sheet against the Sudanese president and ordered the Pre-Trial Chamber to reconsider these charges.  President al-Bashir was already facing seven counts of crimes against humanity and war crimes, including murder, extermination, torture and rape.

Europe: Romania; Americas: United States

Romanian president says his country will host U.S. missile interceptors

On February 4, 2010, President Traian Basescu  of Romania said that his country would host missile interceptors as part of a new United States defense shield system. 

President Basescu explained that Romania's chief military and security entity, the Supreme Defense Council, agreed to such the proposal by the United States.  While the proposal would still have to be ratified by the legislative branch of government, there was some degree of confidence that it would successfully pass through that branch of government. 

President  Basescu said in an interview with Radio Free Europe, "Terrestrial interceptors will be placed on Romania's territory as part of the anti-missile system. According to the calendar agreed with the American side, the components located on Romania's territory will become operational in 2015."  While he noted that  the missile defense system would protect Romanian territory, he emphasized that the move would not threaten Russia.

Indeed, the plan for Romania to host the missile defense system was a departure from a Bush-era program to station 10 long-range interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic.  These directives raised the ire of Russia, which threatened to relocate its own missiles closer to Europe.  But the new proposal, which would instead involve Romania, appeared to be part of the Obama administration's approach to missile defense. Indeed, this new approach would focus on a combination of both fixed and movable Standard Missile 3 interceptors, as well as  radars responding to  the threat posed by short- and medium-range missiles. The location of fixed or ground-based interceptors in Romania was thought to be related to that country's proximity to Iran. 

Europe: United Kingdom; Ireland

Compromise agreement on courts and police in Northern Ireland

On February 4, 2010, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) agreed to a compromise deal aimed at transferring responsibility for the justice system (police and courts) to the government of Northern Ireland.  The devolution agreement was reportedly sanctioned by members of the DUP within the provincial assembly.  As noted by DUP leader, Peter Robinson, "Everyone present believes this is consistent with our election manifesto and pledges that we have made to the people."  On the other side of the equation, Gerry Adams, the president of Sinn Fein, expressed satisfaction with the results of weeks of negotiations. He said, "I believe that the assembly and political institutions can now proceed on the basis of equality, fairness and partnership." Accordingly, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Irish Taoiseach  Brian Cowen were scheduled to go to Belfast to sign the agreement.  For some time,  the justice system in Northern Ireland has been a source of consternation with Catholics viewing the police and courts as unfairly favoring the majority Protestant population.

Europe: United Kingdom

Former British PM Blair defends war in Iraq

On January 29, 2010, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair defended his decision to draw his country into the United States-led invasion of Iraq and ensuing war, explaining that the September 11, 2001 terror attacks changed the way in which the threat of terrorism could be viewed.  Speaking at a commission charged with inquiring into the events leading to British involvement in the Iraq war, Blair said: "Here's what changed for me: the whole calculus of risk. The point about this terrorist act was over 3,000 people had been killed, an absolutely horrific event. But if these people -- inspired by this religious fanaticism -- could have killed 30,000, they would have."  He went on to explain that terrorism with a direct political purpose, such as violence by the Irish Republican Army,  was "within a framework you could understand."  He also suggested that before the terror attacks of 2001, the policy of containment against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq made sense.  However, Blair testified that the terror attacks of 2001 were of such a different variety that it required action against countries such as Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Iraq.

Americas: United States

White House resets agenda with a focus on job creation, deficit reduction and financial regulation

On January 29, 2010, the White House in the United States made clear that it was resetting its agenda by focusing on job creation, deficit reduction and financial regulation, while setting aside health care reform.  White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel explained that President Barack Obama would seek bipartisan support, but ultimately, he would not hesitate to cast Republicans as obstructionists, should they fail to work with Democrats to craft solutions in those spheres.  On the other side of the equation, Republicans made clear that they had no intention of being any more cooperative, claiming that they had "better solutions" to those being offered by the Democratic administration and the Democratic counterparts in Congress. Emanuel drew upon a recent en masse vote by Republicans in Congress against a "pay as you go" plan, which passed anyway on a 60-40 vote, warning that there would be a political price to pay for such action,  Emanuel said in an interview with the New York Times, "One party was for fiscal discipline, the other party wasn't.

By February 6, 2010, President Obama was indicating that despite Republican intransigence, difficult issues, such as health care reform , energy and banking reform, would not be ignored.  In an address to the winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee, the president said of health care reform:  "The easiest thing to do right now would be to just say this is too hard; let's just regroup and lick our wounds and try to hang on.  We've had a long and difficult debate on health care.  And there are some, maybe even the majority in this town, who say perhaps it's time to walk away. Just in case there is any confusion out there. I am not going to walk away from health insurance reform."

Americas: Venezuela

Former aides sign a petition calling for President Chavez' resignation on basis of incompetence

On February 5, 2010, a cadre of former aides of  Hugo Chavez signed a petition calling for the Venezuelan president to resign on the basis of incompetence.  The petition by former loyalists -- including  former Defense Minister Raul Isaias Baduel and Hermannn Escarra who was central to the crafting of the Chavez-era constitution celebrating the Bolivarian revolution --  was published in the local media.  Significantly, the petition emerged after several weeks of growing public discontent and urban unrest over infrastructure needs.  At issue have been  the shortages of water, power and other such  necessities. While the government has blamed the shortages on  drought conditions, which have drained  water reservoir levels, critics have charged the government with incompetence in handling these challenges. 

At the height of his popularity, Chavez' appeal was founded on his record of improving the lives of ordinary Venezuelans by spending petro-dollar on the people.  However, since 2009 when Chavez undertook a number of foreign trips, his popularity has dwindled with many people accusing him of neglecting the needs of Venezuelans at home. 

It should be noted that apart from the charges of incompetence, the petition also chastising Chavez for having an "autocratic, totalitarian and self-centered way of governing" and for using  "utterly careless" use of language, which the document said revealed the Venezuelan leader to be "intolerant, petty, hateful and resentful."

Americas: Haiti

Aid to Haiti slow but progressing; American missionaries charged with child kidnapping

As of February 2010, the humanitarian aid operation in earthquake-ravaged Haiti has continued to be slow and challenging.  However, reports on the ground from the United Nations have indicated some improvement in transporting food to survivors. That being said, the united Nations emphasized that another core task was to provide  shelter to about one million people who were now homeless.  At the broader level, the objective was the reconstruction of Haiti.  To that end, meetings commenced at the Situation Room of the World Bank in Washington D.C.  among technocrats, scientists, disaster experts, development specialists and urban planners aimed at setting the path for Haiti's recovery.

In other developments, a child trafficking case was unfolding in Haiti in which a number of American Baptist missionaries were accused of illegally trying to take children out of Haiti.  The missionaries were detained and charged with child kidnapping and criminal association  for attempting to cross the border into  the Dominican Republic  with a busload of 33 children. The ten missionaries denied the charges and argued that they were merely trying to help those orphaned by the earthquake.

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Special Entry

Europe: Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland

European economies in crisis; consequences for EU?

Fears of a government debt default is Europe emerged in the first week of February 2010, with all eyes focused on Greece.  Of concern was the rising cost of insuring Greek debt against default, even though the Greek government has pledged to reduce its budget deficit by three percent of gross domestic product by 2012. That move was welcomed by the European Commission but met with the threat of strikes by Greece's largest union.  Meanwhile, fears were rising that a bailout by the International Monetary Fund  might be in the offing.

Also at issue have been the fiscal challenges of  Portugal and Spain, which like Greece, have to contend with debt and weakened public finances.  One challenge for Spain is the fact that the central government (leaving the social security administration aside)  controls only a third of public sector spending.  Accordingly, while the central government can set guidelines for the regional and municipal authorities, it has a fairly limited effect on overall fiscal policy. In Portugal, the government does not command a majority in parliament, effectively complicating the process of implementing fiscal policies, and necessitating broad national consensus on the matter of the country's economic health.  Ireland, like Greece,  suffers from budget deficits that exceed 12 percent of their economic output. However, Ireland's record in navigating difficult economic times (late 1980s, early 1990s) was believed to be in that country's favor. 

The situation in these European countries has focused attention concomitantly on the European Union where countries of the euro zone share currency but not economic policies.  The euro itself has seen its value slide as a result of rising economic anxieties, and questions have once again surfaced regarding its viability.

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Elections Update

Asia: Sri Lanka

Election Briefing

Presidential elections were scheduled for Jan. 26, 2010, in Sri Lanka.  The two main candidates -- incumbent  President Mahinda Rajapaksa  and  retired Army General Sarath Fonseka --  have found their popularity among the majority Sinhalese population for their roles in ending the civil war with the Tamil Tigers. 

In the post-war period, President Rajpaksa -- the candidate of the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance -- at first enjoyed high approval ratings and was expected to win easy re-election. However, he was soon mired by international criticism for his government's treatment of the displaced Tamils after the war was over.  The United Nations  vociferously excoriated his government for placing displaced Tamils in prison-like camps administered by the military, and there have been accusations that the regime could well be subject to a war crimes investigation.  

With a political schism brewing, Fonseka resigned from his military post and decided to contest the election against Rajpaksa.  He was soon running a competitive race against the incumbent, and was helped by  endorsements from former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of the main opposition United National Party as well as former president and scion of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SFLP), Chandrika Kumaratunga.

Meanwhile, in a curious case of irony, it was the civilian Tamil population of Sri Lanka who could ultimately play the role of king-maker with both candidates courting this now-important voting bloc. It was likely that Fonseka's pro-Tamil position on the refugee led to the endorsement of the Tamil National Alliance.  It was not known if that was enough to ensure a heavy share of the Tamil vote, or if they would throw their support behind Rajpaksa, who was now making his presence felt at Hindu temples in Tamil regions.

Results:

Despite expectations that the presidential race would be a tight one between Rajpaksa and Fonseka, in fact, official returns bestowed a clear victory to the incumbent president.  The victory for Rajpaksa was  attributed to strong support from Sri Lanka's majority Sinhalese community.  While most of the minority Tamil voters cast their ballots in favor of Fonseka, turnout was reported to be low among this crucial voting bloc.  That being said, Fonseka was alleging fraud and contesting the results.  International monitors appeared to back the notion of irregularities having  taken place.

Update:

Note that following the presidential election in Sri Lanka, the opposition candidate, Fonseka, was arrested at his office in the capital city of Colombo.  Fonseka's wife and secretary were also detained and taken into custody.  The initial charges by the government against Fonseka were described as  "committing military offences."  There was some suggestion that, as a military official, political speech by Fonseka may have been illegal.   However, Fonseka resigned from his military post before contesting the election and he, himself, alluded to this distinction when he decried his arrest by military police.  It was not known whether the timing of his arrest was associated with Fonseka's statement earlier in the day that he was willing to provide evidence to  international courts regarding possible war crimes charges relating to the war with the Tamil Tigers.   To that end, Fonseka said, "I am definitely going to reveal what I know, what I was told and what I heard. Anyone who has committed war crimes should definitely be brought into the courts."  Regardless, there was rising sentiment that Fonseka's arrest could augur a political crackdown against the opposition.  


Americas:  St. Kitts and Nevis

Election Briefing

General elections were scheduled to be held on St. Kitts and Nevis on Jan. 25, 2010.  A three-member observation was sent by the  Commonwealth to monitor the vote.  Monitors from the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) were also invited to observe the election.  At stake were seats in parliament with the political party gaining the most seats being positioned to form the next government. Incumbent Prime Minister Dr. Denzil Douglas was seeking an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in office.  His ruling St. Kitts-Nevis Labor Party (SKNLP) was in a battle with the main opposition People's Action Movement (PAM) to win the most seats.

Results:

The ruling St. Kitts-Nevis Labour Party (SKNLP) was returned to power in general election, albeit with a slightly reduced majority.  Preliminary figures released by the Electoral Office show that that the SKNLP won six seats of the eight seats available on the island of St.Kitts.  The main opposition People's Action Movement (PAM) increased its seats in the parliament from one to two.  On Nevis, where three seats were at stake, the Concerned Citizen's Movement (CCM) again won two seats, while  one seat was one  by the Nevis Reformation Party (NRP).  The results effectively set the stage for incumbent  Prime Minister Denzil Douglas  to be returned to power.  In his victory speech, Prime Minister Douglas thanked the people for placing their trust in his administration saying, "I want to thank you.I will continue to serve you." He continued,  "It (the election) is probably the most crucial election we might have in this country and you have done the right thing."

It should be noted that there have been challenges filed in court related to the results of the elections.

Americas: Costa Rica

Election Briefing

Costa Rica was scheduled to hold general elections on February 7, 2010. Costa Rican voters were to  choose a new president who would serve a four-year term as well as  57 parliamentarians.  Local elections were also on the ballot. A candidate is constitutionally-required to acquire at least 40 percent of the popular vote to win outright.  Failure to gain this minimum vote count would propel the  two top vote-getters ina  given race to compete against each other in a run-off election, scheduled to take place on April 4, 2010.

There were  nine candidates contesting the presidency. Opinion polls showed that the main front-runners were Laura Chinchilla of the National Liberation Party (PLN), Otto Guevara Guth of the Libertarian Movement Party (ML), and Otton Solis of the Citizen Action Party (PAC). As the vice president to popular outgoing President Oscar Arias, Chinchilla was expected to fare well and polling data appeared to give her a double-digit lead over her rivals.  Victory would grant her the distinction of becoming  the country's first female president.

Ahead of election day,  police were deployed across the country to ensure a climate of security, while approximately 200 international observers from 17 countries and the Organization of American States  were present to monitor the transparency of the elections.

On election day in Costa Rica, polling data proved to be valid and Costa Ricans elected Chinchilla as the country's first female president in a landslide victory.  With 47 percent of the vote and a 22 percent lead  over her closest rival, Otton Solis who secured  25 percent, Chinchilla was guaranteed victory without a second round. 

Note that Chinchilla campaigned to continue the moderate social policies and free market economic policies of her predecessor, Oscar Arias, the combination of which have made Costa Rica the most stable country in Central America with a fairly solid economy and high human development ratings. In her victory speech, she said: "Today we are making history.  The Costa Rican people have given me their confidence, and I will not betray it."

At the time of writing, it was unknown as to whether Chinchilla's National Liberation Party would garner a majority in congress.

Europe: Greece

Election Briefing

On February 3, 2010, Greek President Karolos Papoulias was re-elected to a second term in an internal vote in parliament with an overwhelming majority.  Papoulias won 266 of the votes cast in the 300-seat parliament.  The incumbent president  was supported by the ruling Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), the main opposition New Democracy (ND), as well as some smaller opposition  parties.  Parliamentarians belonging to the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) and the Coalition of the Radical Left abstained from the vote.

Note: Papoulias was born in 1929 and served as a former government minister and member of parliament.
 

Europe: Ukraine

See "Featured Country" for Election Briefing

Current and forthcoming elections of 2009 include --

Dec. 7, 2009: Final attempt to elect Moldova's president
Dec. 13, 2009: Chile's presidential and parliamentary elections
Dec. 18,  2009: Elections in Dominica
Dec. 27,  2009: Uzbekistan general elections
Dec. 27, 2009: Croatian presidential election (first round)
Jan. 10, 2010: Croatian presidential election (second round)
Jan. 17, 2010; Ukraine's presidential election (first round)
Jan.17, 2010: Chile's presidential election (second round)
Jan. 25, 2010: General elections in St. Kitts and Nevis
Jan.26, 2010: Sri Lanka's presidential election
Jan. 31, 2010: Guinea's presidential election (first round)
Feb. 3, 2010: Greece's presidential election
Feb. 7,  2010: Costa Rica's parliamentary and presidential elections
Feb. 7, 2010: Ukraine's presidential election (second round)
Feb. 21,  2010: Tajikistan's parliamentary elections
Feb. 21, 2010: Sao Tome and Principe's parliamentary elections
Feb. 28, 2010: Haiti's parliamentary elections
Feb. 28, 2010: Togo's presidential election (first round)
Feb. 28, 2010: Croatia's presidential election
February 2010: Greece's presidential election
February 2010: Sudan's tentative date for parliamentary elections
March 7, 2009: Iraq's parliamentary elections
March 14, 2010: Colombia's parliamentary elections
March 16, 2010: Guinea's parliamentary elections
March 20, 2010: Tentative timeframe for general elections of Madagascar
March 2010: Central African Republic's parliamentary election and presidential election (first round)
March 2010: Greece's presidential election
April 11, 2010: Sudan's presidential elections (also listed as possible date for parliamentary polls)
April 2010: Austria's presidential election
April 2010: Hungary's parliamentary elections
April 2010: Northern Cyprus' presidential election (first round)
April 2010: Solomon Islands parliamentary elections
April 2010: Sri Lanka's parliamentary elections
April 2010: Laos' parliamentary elections
May 10, 2010: Philippines' parliamentary and presidential elections
May 16, 2010: Dominican Republic's parliamentary elections
May 19-24, 2010: Madagascar's parliamentary elections
May 22, 2010: Afghanistan's parliamentary elections
May 23, 2010: Ethiopia's parliamentary elections
May 25,  2010: Suriname's parliamentary elections
May 30, 2010: Colombia's presidential election
May 2010: Egypt's parliamentary elections (contrary date; see November 2010 below)
June 12, 2010: Slovak Republic's parliamentary elections
June 28, 2010: Burundi's presidential election (first round)
June 2010: United Kingdom's parliamentary elections
June 2010: Czech Republic's parliamentary elections
June 2010: Hungary's presidential election
June 2010: Laos' presidential election
July 23-28, 2010: Burundi's parliamentary elections
July 26, 2010L Burundi's presidential election (second round)
July 2010: Mauritius' parliamentary elections
July 2010: Tuvalu's parliamentary elections
July 2010: Japan's parliamentary elections
July 2010: Suriname's presidential election
Before mid- 2010: Tentative timeframe for general elections in Myanmar/Burma
Mid-2010: Tentative timeframe for presidential election in Guinea
Aug. 9, 2010: Rwanda's presidential election
Sept. 19, 2010: Sweden's parliamentary elections
Sept.  26, 2010: Venezuela's parliamentary elections
Oct. 2, 2010: Latvia's parliamentary elections
Oct. 3, 2010: Brazil's parliamentary elections and presidential election (first round)
Oct. 31, 2010: Brazil's presidential election (second round)
October 2010: Tanzania's presidential and parliamentary elections
October 2010: Madagascar's presidential election
October 2010: Poland's presidential election (first round)
October 2010: Bosnia-Herzegovina's presidential and parliamentary elections
October 2010: Czech Republic's parliamentary elections
Nov. 2, 2010: United States' parliamentary elections
Nov. 7, 2010: Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections
Nov. 28, 2010: Chad's elections
November 2010: Burkina Faso's presidential election
November 2010: Bahrain's parliamentary elections
November 2010: Egypt's parliamentary elections (contrary date; see May 2010 also)
November 2010: Haiti's presidential election
December 2010: St. Vincent and the Grenadines' parliamentary elections
December 2010: Nauru's presidential election
December 2010: Jordan's parliamentary elections
December 2010: Equatorial Guinea's presidential election

Note also -

- Second round of Afghan presidential election set for Nov. 7, 2009, was cancelled
- No date available for elections in Yemen
- Despite international pressure, no date available for anticipated elections in Fiji
- Presidential election in Niger set for Nov. 14 and Dec. 6, 2009, has been cancelled
- Nov. 29, 2009 Presidential election in Cote d'Ivoire postponed
- Presidential election originally set for September 2009 in Angola has been postponed
- Parliamentary elections in Canada are possible
- Presidential election expected in Moldova although no date specified due to appointment of acting president
- Should a final presidential vote fail on Dec. 7, 2009, in Moldova, fresh parliamentary elections would ensue

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CountryWatch's coverage of global political events and developments is not an endorsement of any country's political priorities or any political interest group's agenda. CountryWatch takes a politics-neutral approach and encourages users to consider a variety of viewpoints and the complex range of parameters when studying either domestic politics or the international spectrum.

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- Denise Youngblood Coleman Ph.D.
   Houston, Texas

*** Last Updated February 7, 2010 ***