Dr. Denise Youngblood-Coleman

The Political Intelligence Briefing is a report on significant political developments across the international spectrum. The Political Intelligence Briefing is written by CountryWatch's editor on a weekly basis and it is intended to inform CountryWatch users of important political events evolving in the world.

February  2012 Intelligence Briefing:

The "Featured Country"  is Iran.  The "National Spotlight" looks at the United States. The "Foreign Policy Spotlight" focuses on  Burma, also known as Myanmar (with reference to the United States). The "Economic Spotlight" focuses on Greece, France, Austria, Italy, Spain,  Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus, Portugal, Belgium, Estonia, Ireland, Finland, Luxembourg, Germany and Netherlands.  The section titled "International Hot Stories" covers: Nigeria, Malawi, Mali, Somalia, Syria (with reference to the other countries of the Arab League), Iraq, Pakistan (with reference to the United States). The section titled, "Government and Politics," covers: Belarus, Turkey, Bangladesh,  Pakistan, Papua New Guinea. The "Elections Update" features: Slovenia, Egypt, Kiribati,  Taiwan, Kazakhstan, Finland, Turkmenistan, Yemen, Senegal, Pakistan, Russia, Slovakia, El Salvador, Gambia, Iran, Guinea, France, Algeria, Egypt, United States. See "Election Central" for more extensive election coverage around the world.

***

Featured Country

Middle East: Iran

Special Report:

Iran says it is interested in negotiations on its nuclear development program; IAEA inspectors travel to Iran

***

Background: Nuclear development, assassination, and brinkmanship at Strait of Hormuz

At the close of 2011, according to reports via the state-run media, Iran successfully test-fired a medium-range surface-to-air missile during military exercises in the Persian Gulf.   Iranian naval commander Mahmoud Mousavi lauded the operation, noting the missile was equipped with the "latest technology" and "intelligent systems."  Mousavi also noted that further missile launches would be carried out in the near future as part of Iran's  naval exercises in international waters close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

On Jan. 2, 2011 --  one day after testing a medium-range missile --  Iran reportedly test-fired long-range missiles in the Persian Gulf.  Making good on his previously-made vow that Iran would continue this path, Mousavi said on behalf of the Iranian government, "We have test fired a long-range shore-to-sea missile called Qader, which managed to successfully destroy predetermined targets in the gulf."

This news by Mousavi was followed by a disclosure by the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization that its scientists "tested the first nuclear fuel rod produced from uranium ore deposits inside the country."  As well, the IAEA was soon noting that uranium enrichment had begun at the Fordow underground site near Qom.  Indeed, the uranium at the Fordow site was reportedly being enriched to 20 percent -- a distinctly higher level than the 3.5 percent needed for nuclear plants. These disclosures served only to bolster Western fears that Iran has made important progress in its nuclear development, augmenting anxieties that Iran's ultimate ambition is to  enrich uranium at the 90 percent level necessary to create a nuclear bomb.

It should be noted that these revelations from Iran came after  several Western countries indicated their intent to impose further sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors, for the purpose of registering  discontent over that country's continued nuclear ambitions.  Indeed, the United States wasted no time in taking action and on Dec. 31, 2011, President  Barack Obama signed legislation authorizing a package of sanctions on  Iran's central bank and financial sector.  These new sanctions by the United States aimed to intensify the pressure on Iran's oil sales, most of which are processed by the central bank. Essentially, they would force multinational companies to choose whether to do business with Iran or the United States.  Perhaps not surprisingly, the Iranian currency -- the rial -- slipped in value to a record low as a result of the news.

For its part,  Iran has warned that it might retaliate against international pressure by closing the Strait of Hormuz through which a significant amount of oil is transported.  Indeed, Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi promised that "not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz" if further sanctions were imposed.  That being said, analysts have noted that such a drastic step by Iran might serve primarily to hurt the Iranian economy, and imperil relations with Russia and China.  Accordingly, the threat was being regarded with skepticism.   Moreover, United States Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warned that a closure of the strait would yield consequences.  Specifically, Defense Secretary Panetta said  the United States  would "not tolerate" the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and warned that was a "red line" for his country, to which there would be a response.

Iran was increasingly slipping into a state of isolation. China and Russia -- typically antagonists to the notion of increased pressure on that country -- seemed to be distancing themselves from Iran.  China was reportedly seeking alternative sources of oil, while Russia was expressing "regret" over Tehran's decision to start work at the new Fordow uranium enrichment plant near Qom.  Russia went further by saying that Iran should commence "serious negotiations … without preconditions" or face the reality of consequences.

Iran's controversial nuclear program continued to dominate the international landscape well into the second week of January 2012 when an apparent  nuclear scientist working at Iran's Natanz uranium enrichment plant was killed in a car bomb attack.  The magnetic bomb was reportedly attached to to the vehicle carrying the nuclear scientist by  a motorcycle rider.  According to the Sharif University in Tehran, Roshan, a chemistry expert, graduated from that institution and was working as the deputy in charge of commerce at the Natanz site.  The actual attack ensued outside the campus of Allameh Tabatai University, where Roshan was a lecturer.

Iranian officials wasted no time in blaming Israel for the death of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, which they said was quite similar to the killings of other Iranian nuclear scientists. Tehran province Gov. Safar Ali Bratloo said in an interview with the media, "The responsibility of this explosion falls on the Zionist regime. The method of this terrorist action is similar to previous actions that targeted Iran's nuclear scientists." Joining the chorus, Iran's First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi accused Israeli agents of being the perpetrators of Roshan's assassination.

There was no immediate response from Israeli officials as to this allegation.  That being said, the French newspaper, Le Figaro,  has reported that the Israeli Mossad has been training Iranian dissidents in Iraqi Kurdistan to destabilize the Iranian regime.  There was no actual evidence that Israeli-trained Iranians  were behind the assassination of Roshan in Tehran;  however, Israeli Mossad's hand has been suspected in a number of targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists, effectively fueling speculation about a covert effort to undermine Iran's nuclear program. Moreover,  Patrick Clawson of the Iran Security Initiative at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy noted that such covert efforts  were preferable to a more direct military response.  In an interview with the New York Times, he said, "Sabotage and assassination is the way to go, if you can do it. It doesn't provoke a nationalist reaction in Iran, which could strengthen the regime. And it allows Iran to climb down if it decides the cost of pursuing a nuclear weapon is too high."

Meanwhile, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was vociferously denying her country's involvement in the incident. During a media briefing, the United States' top diplomat said, "I want to categorically deny any United States involvementin any kind of act of violence inside Iran."  But Secretary of State Clinton discussed other issues related to Iran's relationship with the wider world.  She drew attention to Iran's recent missile launches and nuclear development activities, strongly demanding that Iran "end its provocative behavior, end its search for nuclear weapons, and rejoin the international community and be a productive member of it."  Additionally, she discussed Iran's threat to close the critically-important Straits of Hormuz, saying, "It's part of the lifeline that keeps oil and gas moving around the world. And it's also important to speak as clearly as we can to the Iranians about the dangers of this kind of provocation."

According to the New York Times, the Obama administration in the United States reportedly dispatched a message via clandestine communications channels to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  warning him that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not be tolerated.  In a separate report on CBS News, the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey appeared to underline the potential response by his country, saying that the United States would "take action and re-open the strait."  Of course, the general consensus was that the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz  could only be achieved  by military means.

Latest Developments: Confrontation or Negotiation?

Clearly, the missile launch, the nuclear development news, the  sanctions, the threats regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,  and the targeted assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist, collectively raised the stakes in a burgeoning confrontation between  Iran and the wider international community.  As January 2012 was coming to a close, attention was on the question of what form that confrontation would take.

Going the route of "soft power" rather than military might, the West wasted no time in intensifying the sanctions regime against Iran in a bid to place pressure on the Islamic Republic's regime to curtail its controversial nuclear development moves. Specifically, the European Union was imposing a phased ban on oil purchases from Iran, while the United States was expanding its sanctions on Iran's banking sector.

According to a statement issued in Belgium,  the countries of the European Union would not sign on to new oil contracts with Iran and would terminate any existing contracts by mid-2012.  Since the European market has made up a full fifth of Iran's oil exports, this sweeping oil embargo would constitute a crushing blow.  Making matters worse for Iran was the news that the European Union would also  freeze the assets of the Iranian Central Bank and it would prohibit transactions involving Iranian diamonds, gold, and precious metals.

Expressing marked disapproval for Tehran's lack of transparency regarding its nuclear program, British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Iran had "failed to restore international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program."

Meanwhile, the United States' harsh sanctions regime  against Iran would become even more targeted as it focused on the Bank Tejarat for its alleged role in (1) financing Iran's nuclear program,  and  (2) helping other banks evade international sanctions. In December 2011, United States President Barack Obama ordered a prohibition on any involvement with Iran's central bank. Now, a month later, the United States Treasury  was asserting that the new sanctions against Bank Tejarat would target "one of Iran's few remaining access points to the international financial system." 

Already diplomatically-isolated, Iran was  now well on its way to being seriously financially isolated in the global marketplace. As noted by the United States Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism David Cohen, "The new round of sanctions will deepen Iran's financial isolation, make its access to hard currency even more tenuous and further impair Iran's ability to finance its illicit nuclear program."  Indeed, the rial -- Iran's currency -- was being deleteriously affected as it underwent a massive downward slide in value.

In apparent reaction to the measures by the United States and the European Union, Tehran  again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The level of brinkmanship reached new heights as the United States Ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, promised that his country and its allies would use any necessary measures to ensure that the crucial marine thoroughfare to the Persian Gulf remained open. In an interview with BBc News, Daalder said, that the Strait of Hormuz  "needs to remain open and we need to maintain this as an international passageway.  We will do what needs to be done to ensure that is the case."  He continued, "Of this I am certain -- the international waterways that go through the Strait of Hormuz are to be sailed by international navies, including ours, the British and the French and any other navy that needs to go through the Gulf. And second, we will make sure that that happens under every circumstance."

Daalder did not foreclose the possibility of a diplomatic solution, saying that the countries of the West stood "ready at any time to sit down and have a serious conversation with [Iran] to resolve this [nuclear] issue with negotiations."

Just days after the war of words was being ratcheted upward, Iranian  President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Tehran was prepared  to return to negotiating table as regards its nuclear program.  On Jan. 26, 2012, Ahmadinejad said that he was open to the idea of reviving multilateral talks in order to show that Iran remained interested in dialogue. At the start of 2011, negotiationsbetween Iran and a cadre of six nations (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council -- the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China) as well as Germany -- ended in stalemate. Indeed, those talks were marked by Iran's refusal to engage in any meaningful dialogue regarding its nuclear program.  Now, a year later, Ahmadinejad  said on state-run Iranian television, "They have this excuse that Iran is dodging negotiations while it is not the case. Why should we run away from the negotiations?" 

There was some suggestion that Iran's interest in a return to the negotiating table might be a sign that international pressure was taking a toll.  That being said, Ahmadinejad's words could just as easily be interpreted as a symbolic gesture by a figure head intent on rallying national sentiment.  To that end, Ahmadinejad suggested that the West was responsible for the collapse of negotiations to date, saying. "It is the West that needs Iran and the Iranian nation will not lose from the sanctions. It is you who come up with excuses each time and issue resolutions on the verge of talks so that negotiations collapse."

Note that as January 2012 came to a close, inspectors from the IAEA arrived in Iran for a visit to determine the purpose of that country's nuclear development program. Yukiya Amano, the head of the IAEA, expressed hope that the "outstanding issues" regarding Iran's nuclear development would be resolved.  Meanwhile, just before departing for Iran, IAEA Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts said, "In particular we hope that Iran will engage with us on our concerns regarding the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program."  For its part, Iran said that the inspection would finally prove that Iran's nuclear ambitions were peaceful.


***

National Spotlight

Americas: United States

United States President Obama delivers his 2012 State of the Union address

On Jan. 24, 2012, United States President Barack  Obama delivered his annual "State of the Union" address before a joint session of Congress.

As he entered the chamber, President Obama exchanged an affectionate hug with United States Representative Gabrielle Giffords, Democrat of Arizona, who was critically injured during an assassination attempt a year earlier.  The president was also warmly greeted by members of Congress -- the expected reception for most American presidents during this ceremonial event.

In his "State of the Union" address, President Obama laid out his vision of an America that is "built to last."  Characterizing that America, he said: "America within our reach: A country that leads the world in educating its people. An America that attracts a new generation of high-tech manufacturing and high-paying jobs. A future where we're in control of our own energy, and our security and prosperity aren't so tied to unstable parts of the world. An economy built to last, where hard work pays off, and responsibility is rewarded."

President Obama's address focused on his plan to stimulate economic growth, spur job growth, and crucially -- enact more fairness in the country's taxation code, which benefits the ultra-wealthy to the detriment of the struggling middle class. To than end, he vociferously reiterated his call for billionaires to pay their fair share in taxes. 

President Obama said that the defining issue of the current period was to keep that promise of the American dream alive.  He said, "No challenge is more urgent. No debate is more important. We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a growing number of Americans barely get by. Or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules."

Also included in the president's policy agenda was a comprehensive approach to energy independence and the environment, criticism of outsourcing,  encouragement for all American youth to get a higher education while not being burdened by student loans, encouragement for comprehensive immigration reform, including passage of the "Dream Act," President Obama additionally took credit for the recovery of Michigan's auto industry.

President Obama acknowledged his  administration's  manifold foreign policy accomplishments -- from  ending the Iraq war, apprehending a record number of terrorist leaders, using multilateral power effectively to bring an end to the Qadhafi regime in Libya, and eliminating Bin Laden.  Indeed, President Obama was rewarded with a standing ovation when he said, "For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country."  He also took the time to highlight the internationalist Obama  foreign policy that eschews the neoconservative notion of  hegemony. In a rebuke to his Republican antagonists who accuse him of weakening the nation, President Obama noted that America's standing in the world has been enhanced and was being felt across the globe.  He said,
"Anyone who tells you otherwise, anyone who tells you that America is in decline or that our influence has waned, doesn't know what they're talking about."  He continued, "America remains the one indispensable nation in world affairs -- and as long as I'm president, I intend to keep it that way."

President Obama anchored his speech  with a call for unity in the national interest, and deployed the example of the United States military's sense of mission in so doing.  President Obama recalled that as he sat in the situation room with his "team of rivals" on the night of the raid on Osama Bin Laden's compound,  there was a sense of common purpose binding them together.  He noted that  the SEAL team tasked with a difficult  task in Pakistan was also focused on the mission at hand rather than identity differences.  He urged Americans -- and especially Americans in Congress -- to adopt the principle of the "mission" to do the business of the people.  Speaking of the mission-driven military, the president said, "At a time when too many of our institutions have let us down, they exceed all expectations. They're not consumed with personal ambition. They don't obsess over their differences. They focus on the mission at hand. They work together."

But the president also  made it clear that even without the cooperation of Republicans, he intended to act on behalf of the American people. President Obama declared, "The state of our union is getting stronger. And we've come too far to turn back now. As long as I'm president, I will work with anyone in this chamber to build on this momentum. But I intend to fight obstruction with action, and I will oppose any effort to return to the very same policies that brought on this economic crisis in the first place."

***

Foreign Policy Spotlight

Asia: Burma (Myanmar)
See also Americas: the United States

United States Restores Diplomatic Relations With Burma (Myanmar) in Response to Reforms

Summary:

The United States restored diplomatic relations with (Myanmar) on Jan. 13, 2012, in response to the government’s move toward political reform.  These measures included allowing pro-democracy icon and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to contest upcoming parliamentary by-elections, a ceasefire with ethnic Karen rebels, and the release of political prisoners.

Landmark Visit of United States Secretary of State Clinton

In the latter part of 2011, foreign policy was at the forefront of the political landscape in Burma (Myanmar) as the Obama administration in the United States announced it would send United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma (Myanmar) on the first  visit by an American secretary of state in half a century.  The decision appeared to be a test of sorts for the new civilian government.

Speaking from a regional summit in Indonesia at the time, President Barack Obama linked the new domestic developments in Burma (Myanmar) with the  decision to engage with that country.  In particular, he referenced the regime's recent treatment of pro-democracy icon and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was released from house arrest and was preparing to contest impending parliamentary by-elections (as discussed below). President Obama said, "Last night, I spoke to Aung San Suu Kyi directly and confirmed she supports American engagement to move this process forward."  President Obama  noted that Secretary of State Clinton would "explore whether the United States can empower a positive transition in Burma." He explained, "That possibility will depend on the Burmese government taking more concrete action. If Burma fails to move down the path of reform it will continue to face sanctions and isolation."

As November 2011 came to an end, Secretary of State Clinton landed in Burma (Myanmar) in the highly-anticipated historic visit to that country.  There, Secretary of State Clinton met with Burmese President Thein Sein and pledged improved ties with Burma -- but only  if that country continued on the path of democratization and reform.  "The United States is prepared to walk the path of reform with you if you keep moving in the right direction," Clinton said. In an interview with media,  Secretary of State Clinton addressed the recent moves to elections as follows: "These are incremental steps and we are prepared to go further if reforms maintain momentum. In that spirit, we are discussing what it will take to upgrade diplomatic relations and exchange ambassadors."  But the United States' top diplomat asserted: "We're not at the point where we could consider lifting sanctions." One of the sticking points for the United States has been Burma's relationship with North Korea; the United States has apparently made it clear that Burma should sever "illicit ties" with North Korea. For its part, the government of Burma appeared  to welcome the "new chapter" in bilateral relations.

It should be noted that Secretary of State Clinton also held talks with pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi in what the international community regarded as a landmark meeting of two of the most iconic female politicians of the modern era.

The Political Realm in Burma (Myanmar)

Just before United States Secretary of State Clinton arrived in Burma (Myanmar) in the aforementioned landmark visit, the domestic landscape in this country was dominated by the news that the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by noted pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi decided to rejoin the political scene.  The NLD  said it would re-register as a legal political party and contest the forthcoming by-elections. Notably, Aung San Suu Kyi would herself be among the 48 candidates of the NLD seeking to contest the parliamentary by-elections, which were to be held in April 2012.

Speaking of this prospect  at the time during an interview with Agence France Presse, Aung San Su Kyi noted, "If I think I should take part in the election, I will. Some people are worried that taking part could harm my dignity. Frankly, if you do politics, you should not be thinking about your dignity." She continued, "I stand for the re-registration of the NLD party. I would like to work effectively towards amending the constitution. So we have to do what we need to do."

The move constituted something of a political comeback for the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi after years of absence from the country's political arena. Indeed, the NLD boycotted the previous elections because of electoral laws prohibited Aung San Suu Kyi from contesting those polls.  The NLD also accused the ruling junta of rigging the political structure to favor its newly-formed Union Solidarity and Development Party, and essentially creating a contrived electoral process.  Now, the NLD had apparently decided that the time had come to re-enter the political system.

Note: By mid-December 2011, the NLD's bid to re-register as a legal political party was approved. Then, as noted here, in January 2012, it was confirmed that Aung San Suu Kyi would contest those elections for a parliamentary seat in the April 2012 vote.

Democratic Reform and Diplomatic Engagement

In late 2011, as the United States opened the door cautiously to bilateral dialogue,  the government of Burma (Myanmar)  appeared to be advancing measures intended to demonstrate its reformist credentials when Burmese President Thein Sein  signed legislation allowing peaceful demonstrations for the first time. While the new law requires protesters to seek approval at least five days in advance of a possible rally, the move was clearly a shift in the direction of increased freedoms since  all protests were previously prohibited.  Indeed, it demonstrated a clear easing of long-standing political restrictions.

By the start of January 2012, the government of Burma (Myanmar) appeared to be traversing the path of political reform as  the country's most prominent political dissidents were released from jail.  Among those enjoying new-found freedom were student protesters imprisoned since the late 1980s, Buddhist monks involved in 2007 pro-democracy protests, journalists, as well as  ethnic and minority activists.  In addition, former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who was detained in a 2004 purge, was released from house arrest.

The release of political prisoners was something the United States has urged for some time. United States President Barack Obama hailed the news that the government of Burma (Myanmar) had decided to free political dissidents from detainment, characterizing the move as  a "substantial step forward."  He said, "I spoke about the flickers of progress that were emerging in Burma. Today, that light burns a bit brighter, as prisoners are reunited with their families and people can see a democratic path forward."
In addition, there was news emerging from Burma (Myanmar) that the government was forging a ceasefire with ethnic Karen rebels.  At issue was an emerging agreement with the Karen National Union.

In the backdrop of these shifts was the parallel path of increased political participation of the opposition with the re-registering of the main opposition party, and the inclusion of Aung San Suu Kyi in impending parliamentary by-elections, as discussed here.

This groundwork yielded fruit for Burma (Myanmar) when the United States announced that Washington D.C., would  restore diplomatic relations with Nay Pyi Taw in response to the Burmese government’s move toward political reform. On Jan. 13, 2012, United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said her country would commence  the process of exchanging ambassadors with Burma (Myanmar).

As noted by Secretary of States Clinton, the restoration of bilateral relations would be an ongoing process and it would be  dependent on further reform.  She said, "An American ambassador will help strengthen our efforts to support the historic and promising steps that are now unfolding."

The development was a clear diplomatic victory for the Obama administration's policy of engagement. For his part, President Obama urged leaders in Burma (Myanmar) to  take "additional steps to build confidence."  He  continued, "Much more remains to be done to meet the aspirations of the Burmese people, but the United States is committed to continuing our engagement."

This progress illuminated the success of  Secretary of State Clinton's landmark visit to Burma (Myanmar) in December 2011, which facilitated productive results. At the time, Secretary of State Clinton said she wanted to be "in country" to decide  for herself whether President Thein Sein was serious about taking the path of democratization.  To that end, it was believed that her visit could encourage Burma (Myanmar) to continue traversing  that path of reform.

It should be noted that there was no immediate call for international sanctions against Burma (Myanmar) to be eased. Those sanctions -- in place since the 1990s -- have included armsembargoes , travel bans on officials of the ruling regime, and asset prohibitions  on investment. While the United States has clearly rewarded Burma (Myanmar) for its recent thrust for reform, the  lifting of sanctions was not likely to occur until democratic changes in Burma (Myanmar) can be classified as incontrovertible and irreversible.

International analysts would be watching the ruling government's future treatment of the political prisoners who were recently released from detainment.  Would they be able to participate in the proverbial public sphere, without fear of recrimination?   For its part, the government has said that it does not recognize the categorization "political prisoner" and, instead, has argued that it only jails people for criminality.  That being said,  President Thein Sein took a sanguine tone as he suggested that the prisoners who were released  could "play a constructive role in the political process."  A week later, President Thein Sein made it clear that his country was moving on  the "right track to democracy" from which there was no turning back.

Editor's Note:

Born in 1945, Aung San Suu Kyi was the daughter of Burma's independence hero, General Aung San, who was assassinated in 1947. Suu Kyi was educated at Oxford University in the United Kingdom. In the 1980s, when she returned to Burma (also known as Myanmar), she became embroiled in popular unrest against the ruling dictator of the time, Ne Win. In 1989, as the military junta declared martial law, Suu Kyi was placed under house arrest. Nevertheless, Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won a landslide victory in the country's elections a year later in 1990. She was never allowed to take power and the military junta -- which controlled Myanmar (Burma) for decades -- refused to transition the country to civilian democratic rule.

Once known as State Law and Order Restoration Council, or SLORC, the leadership body of the ruling military junta changed its name to the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) in 1997. Although landmark elections were held in 2010, they were boycotted by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy and condemned by the international community for being a sham, aimed only at reinforcing the power of the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. Nevertheless, the military authorities of Burma (Myanmar) have insisted that the elections were emblematic of Burma's (Myanmar's) transition from military rule to a civilian democracy.

For her part, Aung San Suu Kyi has spent most of the last decade under house arrest for her political efforts, aimed at pressing the ruling forces on the return to legitimate and transparent democracy. Although she was released for a short period of time in the mid-1990s with limited freedom, by the year 2000, Suu Kyi was subjected to almost continuous detention until her release in November 2010.  Even after her arrest, she was not allowed to contest the 2010 elections.

As of 2012, there has been a thrust for change and reform in Murma (Myanmar), largely attributable to emerging engagement with the Obama administration in the United States.  On consequence of that path toward more meaningful political reform has been the inclusion of  Aung San Suu Kyi in the political process.  In addition to the re-registering her National League for Democracy as a legitimate political party was the fact that Suu Kyi would contest the 2012 parliamentary by-elections.

For her steadfast efforts to advance legitimate and transparent democracy in Burma (Myanmar), Aung San Suu Kyi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.

***

Economic Spotlight

Europe: Greece

Greece looks to private creditors to write off debt

An ongoing debt crisis has plagued Greece, leading to the need for a rescue plan from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, with an eye on averting sovereign default.  In a separate but related development, the euro zone approved an expansion of the euro bailout fund, breathing life into the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Despite agreeing to the debt relief package and the expansion of the EFSF, though, the European Union has not been quick to agree to the release of rescue funds for Greece, as concerns have risen about that country meeting necessary conditions  -- the implementation of austerity measures and reforms -- associated with the relief package.  A new government was  formed and tasked with pushing through the necessary legislation to implement  austerity measures and reforms, and securing a further tranche of rescue funds aimed at averting default.  Without the enactment of the debt relief plan, Greece would fail to service its debt commitments -- essentially defaulting on its sovereign debt, yielding to deleterious effects for the euro zone and European banks. At the international level, there could be a seriously damaging influence on the global economy.   In the backdrop of these developments remain the prevailing fears of contagion emanating from the Greek debt crisis, and extending to other countries in Europe similarly plagued by high deficits and inherent structural economic weakness.

On Jan. 26, 2012, Greek authorities were set to meet with private creditors to forge a debt write off agreement that would reduce Greece's debt.  At issue is the lack ofconcurrence over an interest rate on new bonds that would replace existing debts.  The Institute of International Finance ( IIF), which was representing Greece's private creditors in negotiations the Greek authorities has said that it desired a four percent interest rate on newly-issued bonds.  Athens, however, has sought a lower rate.    Should an agreement be reached, Greece would be positioned for additional rescue funding.  Indeed, forging an agreement with private creditors has been mandated before further rescue funds can be dispatched by  the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.  Of course, without those funds, Athens would default on its forthcoming loan repayments. There remained questions about whether the intervention of the private creditors would be enough to provide Greece with relief.  Accordingly, Christine Lagarde -- the head of the International Monetary Fund -- said that if the level of Greek debt held by the private sector was  not sufficiently renegotiated, then public sector holders of Greek debt should also participate in the effort. An unfavorable outcome to this process could result in Greece being forced to exit the euro zone.

Europe: France, Austria, Italy, Spain,  Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus, Portugal, Belgium, Estonia, Ireland, Finland, Luxembourg, Germany and Netherlands

S&P cut its ratings for France, Austria, Italy, Spain,  Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus, Portugal; EFSF downgraded

On Jan. 13, 2012, the credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s stripped France of its sterling AAA credit rating, relegating France to AA+ status.  Another ratings agency, Moody's, however, moved to maintain France's  AAA rating, although it warned that France's deteriorating debt position placed pressure on the country's stable outlook.   French authorities appeared to respond to the news with equanimity.

French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said, "It's not good news, but it's not a catastrophe."   He also noted that the French government had no plans to enact either spending cuts or tax increases in response to the downgrade. Finance Minister Francois Baroin said, "It's not ratings agencies that decide French policy."

The ratings agency also downgraded Austria from its top notch AAA rating to AA+. The reduction on Austria's rating was partially attributable to the fact that it exports to Italy which is dealing with a recession, and that its banking subsidiaries in Hungary were facing losses.

Standard & Poor’s downgraded Italy two notches from A to BBB+ Spain was in somewhat better shape than Italy although it was downgraded two notches from  AA- to A. Slovakia was cut one notch from  A+ to A.  Slovenia was also cut one notch from  AA- to A+.  Following this trend, Malta was additionally cut one notch from A to A-.

Standard & Poor's meanwhile cut  the  credit of Portugal from  BBB- to BB and Cyprus from BBB to BB+ -- junk status in both cases.

Belgium held steady with an AA rating,  Estonia had no change to its AA- rating, and there was no shift from Ireland's BBB+ rating.

Germany, Finland, Luxembourg,  and the Netherlands appeared to have escaped being downgraded and held on to their AAA ratings.

In regards to the status of the eu ro zone, Standard & Poor's also downgraded the European Union bailout fund -- the European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) -- from AAA to AA+. It should be noted that the decision to downgrade the EFSF was in keeping with the collective downgrades of individual European countries discussed above, since the rating is based on the ratings of the countries that guarantee the bailout fund.  Should the EFSF obtain additional guarantees, it could recapture its AAA rating.

These developments made several countries the latest casualties in the ongoing sovereign debt crisis affecting Europe, and particularly, the countries of the euro zone.  For its part, Standard & Poor's explained that it had taken these measures in response to the failed attempts by the leaders of the euro zone to deal with the ongoing debt crisis. Standard & Poor's released a statement that read as follows: "Today's rating actions are primarily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been taken by European policy makers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the euro zone."

The credit ratings agency went further and accused euro zone leaders of being unable to properly diagnose the causes of the crisis.  Specifically,  Standard & Poor's argued that the plan being advanced by leaders of the euro zone --  to limit governments' future borrowing -- was based upon an inaccurate understanding of the debt crisis.  Standard & Poor's contention was that the challenge was not so much excessive borrowing, as much as it involved  trade deficits and a loss of competitiveness by certain euro zone economies, including Italy and Spain.

***

International "Hot" Stories

Africa: Nigeria

Fears of civil war as Boko Haram Islamic militants carry out more brutal attacks in Nigeria

On Jan. 20, 2012, Kano -- the second largest city in northern Nigeria -- was hit by a series of coordinated gun and bomb attacks. In once case, a suicide bomber rammed a car packed with explosives into the area's police headquarters, which shared a wall with a vocational center utilized by the wives of police officers.  In another incident, gunmen  stormed the headquarters of the Bompai State Police Command engaged  policemen there in a lengthy battle.  There were also multiple explosions at the headquarters of the secret police, known as the State Security Service (SSS),  at a lorry park in the Sabon Gari area, and at the police station in  Yarakwa.  Gun battles were additionally reported at an immigration office in the area. In total, there were more than 25 bomb explosions across Kano, along with several gun fights. The death toll in these brutal attacks exceeded 160 victims, with scores more injured.  Some medical expert, though, warned that the death toll could well increase to past 200.

Two days later, at least ten Christians died in the northern state of Bauchi in another spate of attacks.  Most of the deaths occurred during pre-dawn attacks in  Tafawa Balewa, a flashpoint town in Bauchi.  However, two Christian churches were also bombed in the state capital.

The militant Islamist group, Boko Haram, claimed responsibility for all of these acts of brutal violence.  Only a month prior, Boko Haram carried out  a series of attacks that targeted Christian worshipers at church services on Dec. 25, 2011.  Despite the decision by Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan to declare a state of emergency in parts of the country particularly hard hit by attacks from the militant Islamic group, and to  deploy a special armed forces unit tasked with counter-terrorism responsibilities, the country was again plagued by attacks in the first week of 2012.  Again, Nigeria's Christian community was the target and Boko Haram warned that  southern Nigerians -- most of whom were either Christians or animist -- would be expressly targeted in attacks in the future if they did not vacate the predominantly northern part of the country.

Now, as January 2012 was entering its final week, and as the country continued to be hit by this spate of violent attacks, the Nigerian authorities moved to close its borders with Niger and Cameroon, and imposed a 24-hour curfew in Kano.  As well, President Goodluck Jonathan dismissed the policechief -- Gen. Hariz Ringim.   President Goodluck Jonathan additionally  issued a statement condemning the violence and warning the Boko Haram militants that they would "face the full wrath of the law."

As he inspected the damage from the Kano attacks, the president said, "A terrorist attack on one person is an attack on all of us." But his words and the latest security measures did little to quell the increasing fears that Africa's most populous nation and the continent's biggest oil producer was slipping into a religion-driven state of civil war.

On Jan. 26, 2012, Nigeria's foreign minister was accusing Boko Haram of acquiring training and weapons from an al-Qaida sect. Speaking at a a meeting of west African officials in Mauritania, Foreign Minister Mohamed Bazoum said expressed confidence  about a  relationship between the Boko Haram and al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb in North Africa.  He said, "There is no doubt, the two organizations are connected and they have the same objective of destabilizing our region." Accordingly, the officials agreed to intensify their efforts to go after  militant extremist Islamic entities with violent agendas.

Editor's Note:

The extremist Islamist group, Boko Haram, launched an uprising in mid-2009 and was responsible for the much of the sectarian bloodshed plaguing the country of Nigeria in recent times. Indeed, Boko Haram has a record of attacking security and political personnel manifest by its litany of targets.  For its part, Boko Haram is a militant Jihadist entity, which seeks to establish  an Islamic government and Shari'a law across the whole of  Nigeria.  While "Boko Haram" is the popular name of the extremist Islamist entity, its official name title is  "Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad," which in Arabic means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad."  For its part, the term, Boko Haram,  means "Western education is sacrilege" or "Western education is a sin"  in the Hausa language; however, the group is not only against Western education but also against Western culture, modern science, the wearing of regular Western clothing such as shirts and pants, as well as the act of voting in elections.  The head of the United States Africa Command, General Carter Ham, has said that evidence points to a relationship of some sort between Boko Haram and al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, which operates in north-west Africa, as well as al-Shabab in Somalia, which is itself aligned with al-Qaida.

Africa: Malawi

"Trousers attacks" motivate protest by  Malawian women

In January 2012, a number of women were attacked, beaten,  and their clothing stripped from their bodies in the capital of Lilongwe and  in the city of Blantyre. Their attackers were lashing out at the women for not wearing traditional garb.

Indeed, these attacks on women appeared to be driven by conservatives and hardliners who held ongoing allegiance to a now-defunct law that prevented females from wearing trousers (i.e. pants) or mini skirts and banned males from having long hair.  The law, which was in existence during the rule of the country's former despotic leader, Hastings Banda, was set aside in 1994.  Clearly, though, liberation for women on the matter of clothing remained a matter of great consternation for some factions of society in Malawi.

In response,  hundreds of people  took to the streets of cities in Malawi  to protest attacks on the women.  In an effort to register their discontent, many of the women participating in the protests defiantly wore either pants or mini skirts. As noted by several women at the demonstration, wearing pantsand skirts in Malawi was a symbol of freedom in the aftermath of the era of one-party dictatorship.  But in 2012, it could also be regarded as a basic human right to wear clothing of choice without being subject to violent attack.  To that end,  several attendees held up signs that simply read: "Real men don't bother women."  The protests were also attended by outraged human rights activist, university professors and students, church leaders, members of parliament, and even Vice President Joyce Banda, who said "The reason why I'm here is because I'm in total disbelief that in the year 2012 women are being stripped naked."

For his part, Malawian President Bingu wa Mutharika said in a national radio broadcast  that women had the right to wear what they want and called for the arrest of anyone  harassing women.  He was quoted as saying, "Women who want to wear trousers should do so, as you will be protected from thugs, vendors and terrorists."

Africa: Mali

Clash in Mali leaves dozens of Tuareg rebels dead

As January 2012 entered its final week, the African country of Mali saw fierce clashes between government troops and Tuareg rebels.  According to the country's military, those clashes left as many as 45 Tuareg rebels dead.  The military released a statement noting that "the attackers suffered heavy losses."  The fighting ensues in desert towns including Tessalit and Aguel'hoc, which were now under government control.

Editor's Note:

It should be noted that Tuareg nomads inhabit northern Africa across an expanse that includes northern Mali, northern Niger, and southern Algeria. For decades, Tuareg rebels in Mali have been carrying out armed resistance aimed at achieving more  regional autonomy and a more substantial portion  of national resources. On the other side of the equation, the Malian military has claimed  that the rebels are involved  in drug-smuggling.  More recently, the Tuareg rebels have formed the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NLMA), with the objective of establishing an autonomous Azawad region in the northern part of the country.  Fighters from this NLMA faction of the Tuareg rebels appeared to be  involved in these recent clashes, and were being blamed for fomenting unrest in a region that  has seen sporadic and tentative overtures of peace.  In this case, the NLMA fighters appeared to be  well-armed and professionally trained, with many of them enjoying ties to the former Qadhafi regime in Libya.

Africa: Somalia

AU forces launch major offensive against al-Shabab Islamists in Somalia

As January 2012 entered its final week, African Union (AU) forces launched a major offensive against al-Shabab Islamists in  Somalia. The operation targeted the Somali capital of Mogadishu and aimed to seize territory from al-Shabab. To that end, about one thousand AU troops were able to capture three al-Shabab bases  and were advancing on Mogadishu.  Pro-government forces were reported to have taken control of both Mogadishu University and Barakat cemetery, as AU forces advanced northward following a period of heavy  fighting.

Al-Shabab was under pressure from a number of fronts. In addition to the AU troops operating in Somalia to offer support to government forces,  troops from Kenya, Ethiopia and most recently Djibouti were also working in Somalia towards the same goal of repelling al-Shabab.  That being said, the presence of foreign troops in Somalia could prove to be a controversial matter, even contributing to further instability in a country that can only be classified as a failed state.

For its part, although al-Shabab made a strategic exit from Mogadishu months prior, it still held sway over large swaths of Somalia and had shifted its focus to carrying out terrorist attacks, rather than more conventional warfare, in the Mogadishu area.  Indeed, on Jan. 19, 2012, a suicide attack at a refugee camp in the capital left several people dead, including a security guard and a local aid worker.

Editor's Note:

Somalia has had no real central government since 1991. Indeed, Somalia has lacked any internationally-recognized central government since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991. In recent years, despite the establishment of a fragile transitional government,  the country has been controlled by various political and regional factions, as well as local warlords.  Islamic militias have also held sway and were  driven from the capital in 2006 following an intervention by Ethiopian troops into Somali territory on behalf of the weak transitional government.

Since that time, resurgent Islamists, known as al-Shabab, have been launching a violent insurgency and now control significant swaths of the country's territory.   A ceasefire pact between the government and insurgent forces in June 2008 has had little positive effect since some factions did not sign onto the deal. Indeed, in 2010, al-Shabab -- which is allied with the notorious terror enclave al-Qaida -- was carrying out a violent offensive aimed at overthrowing the government, and even carrying out terrorist acts outside national borders.  Indeed, al-Shabab was responsible for two deadly bombings in Uganda in July 2010, indicating an increasingly jihadist orientation, in which attacks do not stop at the national borders.  In August 2011, al-Shabab forces were said to be withdrawing from the capital city of Mogadishu; however, that exit did not augur an end to violence and terrorism as indicated by the October 2011 attack on the Mogadishu government compound.

From the start of the insurgency in 2007, although no official figures are available, estimates suggest that tens of thousands have died and hundreds of thousands have been made homeless by the fighting in Mogadishu.  As people have been forced to flee their homes  in search of safety, there are now as many as one million people are internal refugees in Somalia.  With the  state of lawlessness increasing in Somalia,  a dire security situation plaguing the country, and the mass scale of population displacement,  the United Nations warned that half the entire Somali population has been in  need of humanitarian aid since the second half of  2008.  As of  2012, the situation can be characterized as both a political and human crisis, manifest most expressly by a crippling famine and drought crisis.

It should be noted that, as chaos reigns supreme in the heartland of Somalia,  there are also  two "republics" in the north. The former British colony of Somaliland---consisting of five districts in the northwest---declared independence in 1991, and the northeastern region---known as Puntland---declared autonomy in 1998.  Neither is recognized as a sovereign independent state.

Middle East: Syria

Head of Red Crescent Society killed in Syria; Arab League suspends mission due to violence

At the start of 2012, the Arab Parliament -- an  advisory body to the Arab League -- was urging that its observers operating in Syria be withdrawn from that country due to the ongoing crackdown on protests.  Despite the fact that Syria signed onto a protocol aimed at calming the crisis rocking that country, the Assad regime was continuing its assault on anti-government protesters.  According to human rights activists, hundreds of people had been killed since the observers from the Arab league arrived in Syria.

With this reality in mind, the Speaker of the Arab Parliament, Salem al-Diqbassi, issued a statement on the prevailing political climate of repression in Syria, which charged that "the presence of Arab monitors has roused the anger of Arab people and negates the purpose of sending a fact-finding mission."  Diqbassi  continued, "This [fact-finding mission] is giving the Syrian regime an Arab cover for continuing its inhumane actions under the eyes and ears of the Arab League."

In actuality, the Arab Parliament has had only limited influence over the Arab League itself; however, this statement by its chief underscored the overall distaste in the Arab world for the hard-line actions of the Assad regime in Syria.

It was soon announced that observers from the Arab League would remain in Syria despite a call from  Diqbassi to remove them from the country. Nevertheless, the Syrian opposition  was challenging the  Arab mission to prove itself, or, exit Syria.  In an interview with BBC News, Syrian opposition leader Burhan Ghalioun urged the international community to establish a safe area within the country and and enforce a no-fly zone over the most volatile regions of Syria. Ghalioun said he did not want Syria to become the new Libya; he instead was advocating limited intervention that would support -- rather than replace -- the revolutionary thrust in Syria.

The start of 2012 was also marked by ongoing violence and repression by the Assad regime on protesters, with further casualties adding to the death toll in Syria, and with all signs pointing toward a protracted and bloody conflict.  As before, the Syrian government justified its hard line approach to dissidents and protesters by characterizing them as terrorists that pose a threat to national security.

With the crackdown by the Syrian authorities continuing - despite the prevailing Arab League protocol and irrespective of the presence of Arab League monitors - Qatari leader Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani took the unprecedented step of calling for the intervention of Arab troops in Syria with the objective of "stopping the killing" that was going on in that country.  The Qatari ruler -- a one-time ally of Syrian President Assad --  issued this call during an interview on the CBS news show, "60 Minutes."  During that broadcast, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani made it clear that his support was with the protesters and activists of the Arab world who were seeking "justice and dignity."

Not surprisingly, Syrian authorities rejected the Qatari Emir's call for the deployment of Arab troops to Syria to help quell the violence there.  A statement from the Syrian Foreign Ministry declared that the government "rejects all kinds of foreign intervention in its affairs, under any title, and would confront any attempt to infringe upon Syria's sovereignty and integrity of its territories."

As January 2012 entered its final week, the member states of the Arab League met to discuss its next line of action.  Under consideration would be the call by Qatari leader Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani for Arab troops to enter Syria with the intent on stabilizing the situation there.  Also under consideration was a transition of power plan.  To that latter end, the Arab League was calling for  President Bashar al-Assad to step aside,  hand over power to his deputy, and establish a unity government with the opposition over the course of a few months. The plan would also offera pathway to multi-party elections in the future, to be  overseen by international observers. Not surprisingly, the Assad regime in Syria wasted no time in rejecting this plan, and going so far as to characterize it as "flagrant interference" in Syria's internal affairs.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced that it was withdrawing its forces from the  monitoring mission in Syria, citing  the fact that Damascus consistently broke its pledges associated with the peace protocol.  Specifically, Saudi Arabia pointed to the ongoing deadly violence rocking Syria.  Intensifying its pressure,  Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal called on the international community to enter the fray and add its voice to the call for the Assad regime to ends its violent crackdown.

On Jan. 26, 2012, after the head of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent Society was killed while driving in a clearly-marked  red crescent emblem, there was increasing pressure on the international community to act to prevent the further escalation of the violent scene in Syria.  Specifically, Italian Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi issued a statement in which he said that the death of Abd-al-Razzaq Jbeiro along with a Christian priest made it clear that members of the international community "spare no effort" to prevent the crisis from escalating further.

The international community appeared cognizant of Syria's decline into chaos.  Indeed,  the United States announced it was closing its embassy in Damascus.  The United States pointed towards the national security situation and said that unless the Assad regime reversed its current course, or showed that it would provide additional security, then it had no choice but to close the facility.  In addition to the conflict between the government and the protesters in Syria, the country was also being plagued by suicide attacks.  In the space of only days in late January 2012, Syria saw a spate of car bombings. The White House said that the current slide into chaos in Syria pointed to the fact that Assad was losing his grip on power and that "his fall was inevitable."

As January 2012 came to a close, the Arab League announced that it would suspend its mission in Syria because of increased violence across the country.  Secretary General Nabil el-Arabi said in a statement: "It has been decided to immediately stop the work of the Arab League's mission to Syria."  More than 130 people died in Syria at the hands of government forces in only a two day period in the last week of the month.

Note: Since the conflict between anti-government protesters and the Assad regime broke out months earlier at the start of 2011, between 5,000 and 6,000 people have perished in Syria.

Middle East: Iraq

Iraq hit by spate of bombings

On Jan. 24, 2012, four car bombs and a roadside bomb exploded in  predominantly Shi'a districts of Baghdad;  at least 10 people died and more than 70 others were injured. Two attacks occurred in Sadr City; in one case,  a car bomb exploded near a group of laborers; in the second case,  a car bomb exploded  close to a gas station.  The al-Hurriya neighborhood was hit by a car bomb. As well,  a roadside bomb exploded in the northwestern Baghdad close to Adan Square.  A car bomb in the Shulaa neighborhood marked the fifth attack.  Two days later on Jan. 26, 2012, a bomb attack in Kirkuk left at least three people dead.  On the same day, two brothers who worked at policemen and several members of their family were killed in a house bombing in Musayyib to the south of Baghdad. Since the start of 2012, more tha 200 people have died in sectarian attacks in Iraq.  The spate of attacks coincide with the exit of United States troops in totality from Iraq at the close of 2011, as well as the early 2012 celebration of the Shi'a holy festival of Arbaeen.

Asia: Pakistan

See also Americas: United States

Memo scandal accentuates strained U.S.-Pakistani ties

As the year 2011 drew to a close, and with bilateral ties between Washington and Islamabad under great strain, the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)  moved to suspend  some drone missile strikes in Pakistan.  According to a report by the Los Angeles Times, the CIA has suspended some drone missile strikes on gatherings of low-level targets suspected of terrorism or attacks on United States troops in  the Afghan-Pak region.

At issue has been deteriorating bilateral relations between the United States and Pakistan dating back to May 2011 when  United States President Barack Obama ordered a  raid into Pakistani territory that ended in the death of global Jihadist terrorist Osama Bin Laden.  Relations were further strained by the November 2011 accidental death of 24 Pakistani soldiers as a result of  United States gunships operating under the aegis of NATO. In response,  Pakistan demanded that the United States vacate the Shamsi air base.   As well, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani warned that Pakistan could even close Pakistan's air space to the United States. Additionally, Pakistan  moved to block NATO supply convoys from operating "in country" and called for a review of cooperation with NATO and the United States.

For Pakistan, there was a growing climate of resentment for the invasion of sovereignty, and over the deaths of Pakistani citizens as a result of United States anti-terrorism operations in Pakistani territory.  For the United States, though, there has been prevailing suspicion regarding Pakistan's involvement in attacks by the Taliban and other militant extremist groups, such as the Haqqani network, on Western and Afghan targets. In fact, the United States has suggested complicity of the Pakistan's intelligence agency in the siege of Kabul that targeted the United States embassy and NATO headquarters  in the Afghan capital in September 2011.

The United States' claims were somewhat bolstered by a report in the Dawn newspaper detailing the Pakistani government's admission that it had limited authority  over the powerful military and intelligence services.  To that end, the  Pakistani Ministry of Defense reportedly told the country's Supreme Court  it had no operational control over the military or the country's intelligence agency.  This claim would coincide with analysts' warnings that the even as the Pakistani government was trying to protect its own claims of sovereignty, its own power within this nuclear-capable country was severely curtailed.  Thus, it was quite plausible that even as the Pakistani government was extending overtures of cooperation to the United States in fighting terrorism, it was balancing a difficult tightrope.  Specifically, the powerful wings of the military and intelligence service in Pakistan could very well threaten the elected government's grip on power.

By the start of 2012, revelations regarding Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, escalated into what was now being called "the memorandum scandal."  At issue in a memorandum that reportedly was sent by  Haqqani -- a well-liked Pakistani diplomat in Washington D.C. -- to the former American Army Chief Mike Mullen, seeking  assistance from the United States to prevent a military coup in Pakistan.  The revelation,  which was detailed in the nationalistic Pakistani media, led to  Haqqani resigning as  Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, and admissions from the diplomat that he now feared for his life and was remaining at his residential compound.  Such fears have some degree of merit in a country where moderate Islamic or pro-Western public figures have been the victims of assassinations.

Meanwhile, tensions between the civilian leadership of Pakistan's government and the military were now heightened. For his part,  President Zardari denied there was any conflict with the military and instead asserted that the impression of a clash between institutions was  part of an evolutionary process.

With the Supreme Court ordering an investigation into the matter of who might have been behind the memorandum, analysts suggested that President Zardari's political career could be over  if it was revealed that he authorized the infamous document. With an eye on preserving his political viability and not antagonizing the opposition within the context of this  environment, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari on Jan. 7, 2012,  hinted that snap parliamentary polls might be in the offing.  President Zardari also said he was prepared to discuss the matter with opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. Parliamentary elections were scheduled to be held in Pakistan in 2013; however, the Pakistani government indicated  they might take place as soon as October 2012.

It should be noted that by the second week of January 2012, the conflict between the civilian government and the military was illuminated in high relief  when Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani fired Defense Secretary   Naeem Khalid Lodhi  for “gross misconduct and illegal action." The prime minister's office explained that Lodhi “created a misunderstanding between state institutions,” although there was little elaboration of the details.  The conventional wisdom was the Lodhi's close relationship  with the military may have been the main issue.

By Jan. 25, 2012, Pakistani Prime Minister  Gilani appeared to  reaching out to the military leadership in an apparent attempt to bridge the gap.  Prime Minister Gilani said, "I want to dispel the impression that the military leadership acted unconstitutionally or violated rules." He then called on Pakistan's civilian and military leaders "have to be seen to be on the same page."

***

Government and Politics

Europe: Belarus

President Lukashenko of Belarus hints toward reform

On Jan. 19, 2012,  Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko hinted towards the possibility of  political reform following forthcoming parliamentary elections set for later in the year.  At a meeting which was convened to celebrate 20 years of diplomatic relations between China and Belarus, Lukashenko said he would seriously consider reforming the country's political system.  That being said, pro-democracy advocates were not expected to heartily applaud this news since Lukashenko said that he would use China as an example in these efforts.  Indeed, he said that China could provide guidance in the handling of internal affairs, the forging of relations with Western countries, and also as regards control over the Internet.   Accordingly, reform in Belarus was not expected to augur much of a departure from the current climate of repression under autocratic rule.

Europe/Asia: Turkey

Former head of army in Turkey detained; set to face charges of organizing a plot to overthrow the government

At the start of 2012, General Ilker Basbug, the former head of the Turkish armed forces, was taken into custody at Istanbul's Silivri Prison to face charges over an alleged plot to overthrow the government.  Basbug's detainment marked  the first time a former army chief would be expected to stand in court as a suspect facing serious charges. For his part, Basburg dismissed the accusations against him saying, "We can say it is really tragicomic to accuse somebody who commands such an army of forming and directing a terrorist group."  As Basbug bypassed the media en route to the Silivri Prison, he posed the following question: "How could it be possible that I plotted against the government which appointed me? If they knew that I was involved in such a plot, why did they keep me in the post?"

Basbug was the latest political casualty of the infamous "Sledgehammer" plot dating back to 2003 by military individuals to depose the government of Prime Minister  Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The  so-called "Sledgehammer" case first entered the public purview in January 2010 following a news story published in the Taraf newspaper. According to that report, documents were discovered detailing plans to bomb two mosques in Istanbul, and causing Greece to shoot down a Turkish aircraft in the Aegean Sea.  The plot was also linked to what has come to be known as the Ergenekon conspiracy, which has alleged that the military and secularists have worked together to foment instability, ultimately aimed at an overthrow of the government. For its part, the Turkish military argued that such scenarios have only been considered for planning purposes at military training seminars.  As well, opposition voices  argued that sudden revelations about the "sledgehammer" plot and the Ergenekon conspiracy have come to the fore as a strategy by the pro-Islamic government to intimidate its secularist opponents.

In recent years,  hundreds of military officers were arrested and charged over the aforementioned "Sledgehammer" attempted coup plan, and  hundreds of people have been arrested and charged with belonging to  the clandestine  "Ergenekon" group, referred to just above.

In mid-2011, Turkey's military chief, Isik Kosaner, along with the commanders of Turkey's army, navy, and air force resigned from office in response to ever-increasing  tensions between the government and the military.  The resignations came in the aftermath of several meetings between Kosaner and Erdongan, and ahead of a meeting of the  Supreme Military Council which were expected to expose disagreements on scheduled promotions for officers alleged to be involved in the suspected 2003 coup plot.   While the military leadership wanted to go ahead with the promotions, the government opposed it.  Moreover, the timing was key, as Kosaner and senior commanders in the branches of the military resigned only hours after a Turkish court charged 22 suspects, including members of the military, for participating in a campaign to undermine the Islamist government via an Internet propaganda plan.

As of 2012, Basbug was not the only person to face charges; several well-known Turkish journalists and writers  were also held over for trial in the same case, raising eyebrows in the West about the apparent repression of dissident voices.  Meanwhile, the Turkish Journalists' Association accused Turkish authorities of crafting a "climate of fear."  The ongoing investigation of members of the  clandestine  "Ergenekon" group, along with the prosecution of suspects, has been regarded with a mixture of approval from some quarters. That said,  criticism has come from among those individuals who believe that the investigation constitutes something of a "witch hunt" by the government against its opponents.

The situation illuminated the long-simmering tensions between Turkey's military, which has often been regarded as the guardian of the country's secular legacy, and the Islamist government, led by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP).  Indeed, the Turkish military has been involved in provoking the resignations of four governments since 1960.

Asia: Bangladesh

Bangladeshi army says it foiled an attempted coup

On Jan. 19, 2012, the Bangladesh Army announced that it successfully has foiled an attempted military coup d'etat, reportedly orchestrated by mid-rank army officers.  Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Masud Razzak  said in an interview with Press Trust of India that two former officers had been arrested while more than a dozen others were  under investigation.  Razzak said that the two individuals who were arrested had admitted their roles in the plot to overthrow the government.  Razzak noted that the coup conspirators would be subject to legal consequences.

Asia: Pakistan

Former Pakistani President  Musharraf reconsiders return

At the start of 2012, with former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf indicating that he planned to return to his homeland from exile, the government of Pakistan warned that the former leader would be arrested upon setting foot on Pakistani soil.  In an interview with CNN International, Musharraf said he wanted to return to political life in Pakistan, regardless of the potential risks.  But the government of Pakistan made it clear that Musharraf would not be welcomed to the fold, and indeed, would be detained and sent to a jail in Karachi should he step foot in Pakistan.

Of particular relevance was an announcement by Pakistani prosecutors that they sough to arrest Musharraf on prevailing charges that he did little to protect former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto when she returned from exile to Pakistan and then suffered  assassination in 2007.  Indeed, a court in Rawalpindi charged some Pakistani  police with negligence for failing to provide accurate security for Bhutto, while the five members of the Taliban were charged with conspiracy in her death.  A  separate report by the United Nations on Bhutto's assassination implicated the government of former President Pervez Musharraf, suggesting that Pakistani officials at the time "failed profoundly" to provide Bhutto with proper protection. Bhutto was assassinated on  Dec. 27, 2007, following a campaign rally for her Pakistan People's Party. She had returned to Pakistan from exile to contest the January 2008 parliamentary elections. Now, in 2012, Pakistani prosecutors were making it clear that they intended to hold Musharraf accountable.  Perhaps with an uncertain future at hand at home in Pakistan, Musharraf reconsidered his plans to return from exile.

Pacific: Papua New Guinea

Power struggle in Papua New Guinea goes on; O'Neill says elections to take place

In January 2012, Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Peter O’Neill made it clear that highly anticipated elections would go forward later in the year, despite issues with compilation of the voter rolls.  He also said he would support the notion of early elections, if legally possible.  It was hoped that the elections would bring an end to the political power struggle rocking the country.

The situation dated back to 2011 when the family of long-serving Prime Minister Somare said that he had retired from office due to heart health complications. But Somare himself had never made that claim and once restored to health, he declared that he remained the head of government and was returning home to resume his post. With the prime ministership ruled vacant by a majority vote in parliament, and Somare disqualified from parliament due to absence at consecutive parliamentary sittings, Peter O'Neill -- a former finance minister -- was chosen to be the interim prime minister. While the governor general backed O'Neill's initial claim on the position of head of government, a ruling by the Supreme Court changed the political landscape significantly when it invalidated the position of O'Neill as prime minister and reinstated Michael Somare in that post. Governor General Michael Ogio  reversed his stance and stood in solidarity with the court.

The political power struggle did not end quickly as O'Neill refused to accept the court ruling and insisted he was in charge of the country. As well, even with Somare now enjoying the legal support of both the highest court and the head of state, he was not guaranteed support in parliament. To that end, even thought Governor General Ogio presided over the swearing in ceremony for Somare, the political impasse continued on Dec. 14, 2011, as the parliament voted to demand that O'Neill be inaugurated back into power as the prime minister. Moreover, reports emerged that O'Neill and his supporters in parliament intended to move to revoke Ogio from his position as head of state. Presumably, they would replace him with a choice more likely to do their bidding. To this end, parliament moved quickly to suspend Governor General Ogio from his post and had Parliamentary Speaker Jeffret Nape swear O'Neill in as prime minister. Once reinstated to power as head of government, O'Neill urged parliament to reverse the legislation suspending Ogio and returned him to his post. But of course, by this point, there were two men -- O'Neill and Somare -- making the same claim of legitimacy. The scene was, therefore, ripe for conflict and indeed there were rowdy clashes outside the country's Government House.

By the middle of December 2011, the power struggle between O'Neill and Somare was ongoing. O'Neill was backed by a majority of the members of parliament and also enjoyed a groundswell of popular support. Indeed, the people of Papua New Guinea applauded his promise to provide free education and greater participation of women in parliament. On the other hand, Somare had the backing of the court. O'Neill claimed his legitimacy as head of government by pointing to the fact that he held the support of the majority of parliament. He said, “Parliament is the place where we make governments and where we change governments." Somare drew upon the constitution to make his counterpoint, saying in an interview with Radio Australia, “Numbers in parliament is irrelevant when we have a constitution that's supreme, and the constitution has spoken."

On Dec. 20, 2011, with the national civil service, police, armed forces, and even the newly restored Governor General Ogio now closing ranks around O'Neill, all signs pointed to an end to the political crisis. With the backing of these wings of government, O'Neill able to occupy the office of the prime minister and other government offices, and even evict the members of parliament who supported Somare.  O'Neill was also able to pass a budget -- a move that served to consolidate his legitimacy as the head of government.

Still, Somare was not about to go quietly into the national history books of Papua New Guinea.  On Dec. 22, 2011, Somare accused O'Neill of disrespecting the constitution and intimidating the governor-general.  He also insisted that he was the rightful leader of the country. “I know very well, that there was no, either by speaker or by anyone to remove the member of parliament,” he said.  Somare continued, “I was discharged by parliament as a non-existing member. But court, in its wisdom, and following our constitution, reinstated me as the head of government."

By the first week of January 2012, the situation in Papua New Guinea remained unresolved with Somare having the support of the court and O'Neill holding the support of the parliament.  Sir Arnold Amet, the  Attorney-General in the Somare cabinet,  urged O'Neill to be guided by the legal provisions of the Supreme Court judgment and allow Somare to take his place as head of government upon the resumption of parliament.  Amet said that at that point, O'Neill could conceivably move forward with a motion of no confidence, which would bring down Somare's government and trigger early elections.

For his part, O'Neill assured the people of Papua New Guinea that  his government would continue to govern the country democratically and transparently until general elections could be held later in the year. As noted above, those 2012 elections were set to go forth on schedule.  In fact, he indicated he would support the idea of early elections, if it was  possible under the law.  O'Neill said, “If it was for me, I will have called for an early election but the laws are there and that the election will be conducted as scheduled although there have been problems with the electoral roll.”  He also said that the  heads of the military and police would remain in their posts throughout the election to ensure the stability at this crucial period.  There were high hopes that the elections could bring an end to the political power struggle plaguing the country.

As January 2012 was drawing to a close, the power struggle flared again as a cadre of soldiers, led by Colonel Yaura Sasa participated in a mutiny and placed Brigadier General Francis Agwi under house arrest.  Given the mutineers' allegiance to Somare, the general consensus was that the military cadre was interested in restoring Somare to power by force.  That being said, Agwi was subsequently released during a raid and Sasa was taken into custody.  O'Neill   said that Sasa would be "dealt with,"  and asserted that his government had control over the defense forces.

Note that days later, O'Neill said that he would dissolve parliament in February 2012, paving the way for early elections.  O 'Neill said that he made the decision  in light of the unstable political conditions plaguing the country.

***

Elections Update

Europe: Slovenia

Primer on Slovenian parliamentary elections
(Dec. 4, 2011)

On Sept. 20, 2011, the government of Prime Minister Borut Pahor fell as a consequence of a confidence vote in the "Državni Zbor" or National Assembly of Slovenia. The vote was 36 -51 and set the path for either the appointment of a new prime minister or the holding of snap elections. Most members of parliament appeared to endorse the notion of elections. At issue was the cabinet overhaul by Pahor following the exit of four coalition partners from the ruling alliance months earlier in June 2011. At the helm of a minority government, Pahor has struggled with the reins of power, and his cabinet has been criticized for its stewardship of the country's political and economic woes.

For his part, Pahor insisted that he did his best in serving the country. His tenure at the helm of Slovenia's leftist Social Democrat Party began in 2008, following legislative elections that year. At the time, he formed a coalition agreement with the Zares, Liberal Democratic, and Pensioners' parties. The four-party coalition held control over 50 seats in parliament -- more than the absolute majority of 46 seats in the 90-member parliament. By this point in 2011, should the National Assembly fail to choose a replacement for Pahor within 30 days, the country would go down the path of fresh elections a year ahead of schedule.

During an interview with the media on Sept. 26, 2011, outgoing Prime Minister Pahor said that if Slovenians were to go to the polls again, he would seek another term as prime minister. Still, he acknowledged that his prospects of winning the next general election were limited. Pahor said that he hoped that he would be recalled as a prime minister "who talked rubbish sometimes but also told a lot of things which later proved truthful and as someone who tried to do things that would be useful."

By the close of the month, it was decided that Slovenians would go to the polls to vote in elections on Dec. 4, 2011. Speaking of this schedule, President Danilo Turk said, "I have decided to call early parliamentary elections for December 4 in accordance with the constitution, I will dissolve parliament on October 21." At stake in the forthcoming elections would be the seats in the "Državni Zbor" (National Assembly), composed of 90 members, 40 of whom are directly elected and 50 of whom are elected on a proportional basis. The number of directly elected and proportionally elected seats varies with each election; the constitution mandates one seat each for Slovenia's Hungarian and Italian minorities. Members are elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms.

On election day, Slovenians went to the polls to cast their ballots. After the votes were counted, it was a new political party -- Positive Slovenia, led by Zoran Jankovic, the mayor of Ljubljana -- which claimed the most votes and the most seats in the parliamentary election. Jankovic's party, with the full name of "Zoran Jankovic's List: Positive Slovenia," won 29.1 percent of the vote share and 28 seats in the legislative body. The Slovenian Democrats (SDS) of former Prime Minister Janez Jansa garnered 26.5 percent and 26 seats. Outgoing Prime Minister Borut Pahor's Social Democrats (SD) experienced a marked slide in popularity and carried about 10.8 percent and 10 seats. The election result was a resounding message that the Slovenian people were ready for change. With no one party winning an absolute majority, all eyes would be on the coalition building process to see what form of government was yet to emerge. Apart from the new prime minister at the helm of a coalition government, Slovenia was also looking toward the opening of a new parliament.

Note that on Jan. 5, 2012, Slovenian President Danilo Tuerk named  Zoran Jankovic to be the new prime minister of the country. For his part, Jankovic would have to win an absolute majority of 46 votes in the 90-seat National Assembly within a week before President Tuerk's nomination would become effective.

On Jan. 11, 2012, the vote did not go the way of Jankovic  as the Slovenian National Assembly  rejected his candidacy. Jankovic won  42 votes -- four votes short of the required  absolute majority in the legislative body.  President Tuerk would now have to call  another candidate to go through the same process before a prime minister could lead a new government. For his part, President Tuerk decried the lack of amity during the vote, saying, "What we witnessed today in parliament was a lot maneuvering, a lot of tactics, many things that would make us think that this does not bode well for the future work of parliament." 

On Jan. 25, 2012 former Slovenian Prime MinisterJanez Jansa was nominated to be the new prime minister-designate.  As was the case for Jankovic, Jansa would have to garner an absolute majority of 46 votes in the 90-seat National Assembly before the nomination could become effective.  Jansa was expected to have the support of a five-party coalition, composed of Jansa's  Slovenian Democrats, the Virant List, the People's Party, the Pensioners' Party and New Slovenia.

Note that on Jan. 28, 2012, the Slovenian National Assembly endorsed on Jansa's nomination with the Slovenian Democratic Party leader garnering 51 affirmative votes -- an absolute majority in the 90-strong legislature. Jansa would now have two weeks to put forward candidates for cabinet posts. Jansa said that his policy agenda for Slovenia would include economic development, job creation, stabilization of public finances, and improving the country's business climate.


North Africa: Egypt

Primer on parliamentary elections in Egypt
(phased election rounds from November - January 2012)

Parliamentary elections were originally scheduled to take place in Egypt in September 2011.  These elections constituted a tangible and significant outcome of the anti-government uprising that took hold in Egypt earlier in the year, and resulted in the ousting of former President Hosni Mubarak from power.

In July 2011, there were some suggestions that the much-anticipated parliamentary elections might be delayed due to calls for the establishment of a new constitution ahead of the elections.  Without constitutional changes, secular elements of the Egyptian political scene were afraid that the already well established  Muslim Brotherhood  and the  Wafd Party would win the most votes.  As well, the many fledgling  political parties formed following in the post-Mubarak's ousting period were saying that they needed more time  to organize themselves. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Muslim Brotherhood  was not willing to relinquish its advantage and registered its opposition to the "constitution first" popular movement gripping the country.  That being said,  interim Egyptian Prime Minister Essam Sharaf indicated that the elections  would go forward, as scheduled, at the end of September 2011.  He said, "Until now it's business as usual, the dates will be determined by the referendum. The (parliamentary) election will be in late September and after that, presidential elections."

Only weeks after this assertion was made, though,  Egypt's ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announced that the elections would indeed be delayed from September 2011 to later in the year, with a likely date expected in October or November of 2011. According to the Egyptian newspaper, Al-Masry Al-Youm, General Mamdouh Shaheen, one of the leading figures in the military council, had confirmed that election preparations would begin in September 2011, with elections occurring about a month after that in October 2011.

In September 2011, Egypt's ruling Supreme Council, said that parliamentary elections to  the People's Assembly and the Shura Council would be respectively  held on Nov. 28, 2011, and Jan. 29, 2012.  The Egyptian interim authorities  also moved to amend the law on the parliamentary elections, changing the seats in  the People's Assembly seats to 498, and those in the  Shura council to 270 seats. Seventy percent of the parliamentary seats would be based on the party list system, but the remaining thirty percent would be earmarked for individual candidate voting. As well, the country would be divided into 60 constituencies -- 30 for the party lists system, in which each list was mandated to include at least one woman candidate,  and the other 30 for the individual candidate system in which the candidate would be prohibited from affiliations with  any political party.

The changes were aimed at advancing as much participation from all elements of Egyptian society. Egyptians would be able to vote with their national identity cards. The council promised to protect the people's revolution that led to the ousting of the Mubarak regime and to facilitate the process that would lead to a democratically elected civilian government in Egypt before the end of 2011.

At the close of September 2011, a coalition of Islamic political parties was threatening to boycott the elections if members of the former ruling National Democratic Party were allowed to contest the elections.  The coalition, which included the Muslim Brotherhood, was against a law that would allow  former National Democratic Party members to run  as independent candidates.

By mid-November 2011, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces in Egypt had ruled that certain members of the  disbanded National Democratic Party were eligible to contest the parliamentary elections.  The decision was sure to be met with a loud outcry from the Muslim Brotherhood; however, the court of the transitional authorities concluded that members of the National Democratic Party  were full Egyptian citizens, and therefore, they were guaranteed the same political rights as other citizens of the country without criminal records.

Complaints about the political structure were further punctuated by the release in early November 2011 of the new draft constitution, produced by the transitional military authorities.  Included in that draft document were principles or guidelines for jurisprudence in the new Egypt, but it also included its provisions was an exemption for the military from both civilian oversight and budget norms.  These provisions enraged some Egyptian activists, who viewed them as signs that the institutionalized military authority was  attempting to consolidate its grip on power.

Collectively, these conditions set the stage for a climate of anger and political frustration in Egypt. Indeed, ahead of these landmark elections, renewed protests  broke out in Tahrir Square in Cairo, with deadly consequences.  The situation marked a shift in the political landscape, as the military -- previously viewed as protectors of the Egyptian people during the uprising against Mubarak -- was now the target of the ire by the demonstrators in the streets.  The climate of unrest surged as the crowds of protesters now numbered about 10,000 at Tahrir Square in Cairo, and the death toll had exceeded 30.

Amidst this backdrop of political chaos, Egyptian officials were insisting that the first phase of the parliamentary elections would be held on Nov. 28, 2011, as scheduled.  Egyptian officials additionally accused elements of the protest movement of attempting to undermine the legitimacy of the elections and preventing the formation of new state institutions.  In a statement, Egyptian authorities said that while Egyptians had the right to  peacefully rally and to voice  demands,  the government could not allow Egypt's national security to be compromised. The Egyptian authorities also expressed regret over the violence that had erupted in the renewed unrest, but insisted that the country would adhere to the power transfer schedule.

Meanwhile,  as political dissonance rocked the country, individuals with political aspirations in Egypt reacted to the latest developments.  Former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and current opposition leader and presidential contender Mohammed El Baradei said in an interview with The Guardian that Egypt needed to be rescued  from the precipice of crisis. He called on the government of Premier Sharaf to resign and be replaced by a "national salvation government" tasked with  "saving" Egypt's Nile Revolution. Speaking of the hardline response by police to the protesters, he said,  "I think what we've seen ... is an excessive use of force, bordering on a slaughterhouse, against innocent civilians exercising their inalienable rights to demonstrate." Arab League's former head, Amr Moussa, who earlier declared his intent to seek the presidency, struck a less fiery tone, and  called for talks between stakeholders and a negotiated end to the crisis.

A less well-known presidential contender, Hesham Al-Bastawissy, announced his withdrawal from Egypt's presidential race, saying that the violent crackdown  had "stripped legitimacy" from the interim ruling military council. Bastawissy said he would only remain in the presidential race if a presidential council took over from the military council. Hazem Salah Abu-Ismail, a favored presidential contender of the Salafists, was reported to be in Tahrir Square, where he said he would remain until the interim ruling military council declared an actual date for the presidential elections.

Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, an independent presidential aspirant  formerly allied with the Muslim Brotherhood member, denounced "police brutality" and railed against the military authorities for failing to effectively handle the outbreak of violence.  Independent Islamist, Mohamed Selim Al-Aawa, also criticized the military authorities for failing to respond appropriately to the renewed protest movement, but called on Egyptians to stay unified and focused on the forthcoming elections.

That being said, the calls for an end of the system of military rule appeared to be resonating a week ahead of those long-awaited elections. On Nov. 21, 2011, Egypt's interim civilian government of Prime Minister Essam Sharaf submitted its resignation to the country’s ruling military council. The en masse resignation appeared to be a nod by the civilian government to the renewed protest movement and represented a crisis of legitimacy for the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.  Still, the head of Egypt's ruling military council, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, said the council had accepted the civilian government's resignation.

In an apparent bid to shore up its own legitimacy, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces quickly moved to issue a decree banning individuals viewed as damaging to the political life of Egypt from contesting the legislative elections.  The move appeared to target former members of the now-disbanded National Democratic Party (NDP) of ousted Mubarak.  Indeed, it was clearly intended to appease the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition elements who opposed a recent ruling allowing members of the NDP without criminal records to contest the elections.  That being said, the interim military authorities said the ban was not a blanket prohibition, but that there had to be evidence proving ruinous political life.

On the following day -- Nov. 22, 2011 -- Egypt's ruling military council  met with representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups in a conference.  Notably absent from that session were a number of  other political parties that decided to boycott the event.  Nevertheless, those present forged an agreement to ensure that the first phase of the elections to the national assembly would go forward, as scheduled, on Nov. 28, 2011. Field Marshall Tantawi insisted that the military did not  "care about who will win" the elections, and observed that  "it's up to the people to decide who will rule." The agreement also accelerated the pace of the transition to civilian rule. Specifically, it called for the formation of  a new civilian cabinet, led by a “technocrat” prime minister rather than a politician.  Finally, measures were to be implemented to ensure the adoption of a new constitution and the holding of a presidential election no later than June 2012 -- a significant shift from the formerly open-ended timetable.

These moves were clearly being made in response to the populist fervor opposing the continued yoke of military rule. It was yet to be seen if these measures would appease the protesters still gathered in Tahrir Square.

On Nov. 25, 2011, Dr. Kamal Ganzouri was named as the new prime minister of Egypt and charged with forming a "national salvation" government. A former prime minister who stood at the helm of government during  the Mubarak regime from 1996 to 1999,  Ganzouri also served as the planning minister in the Egyptian government in previous years.  Notably,  Ganzouri was not a member of the dissolved National Democratic Party (NDP) of ousted Mubarak, but a respected leader on the Egyptian political scene with a reputation for advocating anti-corruption policies.  Despite the appearance of Ganzouri being something of a consensus figure, in fact, thousands of protesters continued to rally at Tahrir Square in Cairo.  That being said, a counter-protest movement was also taking shape as thousands of demonstrators gathered at Abassya to show support for the  ruling military council. For its part, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces called on its supporters to go home and not add to the chaos erupting in Egypt.

Days later on Nov. 28, 2011, even as the political landscape continued to be turbulent, Egyptian voters began the process of voting in the first phase of democratic elections. Despite the spate of violence that rocked Egypt in the week leading up to the start of the phased elections, millions of Egyptians were not deterred from exercising the democratic right to vote.  Long lines of voters at polling stations were reported across the country.  Turnout was as high as 70 percent with participation expected to rise to 80 percent after elections were extended an additional day.  Although there were sporadic reports of clashes, the elections appeared to be going off in a relatively calm manner and security forces were maintaining law and order.

The High Election Commission soon announced that the Islamic fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party garnered 36.6 percent of the votes  cast; the Nour Party, representing the more hard-line and extremist Salafi Islamists, captured 24.4 percent; the secular Egyptian Bloc took 15 percent; the Al-Wafd Party secured 11 percent.  These results gave a limited view of the composition of the new parliament since there were further rounds of voting to come.  That said, it was apparent that the grip of the Islamists over the next parliament would be strong.

In response to this development, reformist political leader, Mohammed El Baradei, expressed some degree of angst, which he said was shared among the educated elites of Egypt.  El Baradei --  a Nobel Prize laureate and possible presidential candidate -- said,  "The outcome so far is not the greatest one."  He therefore urged moderate Egyptians to issue a message at the polls in further rounds, and called on reformers and youth to make it clear that Egypt would not go down an ultraconservative religious path. El Baradei expressed concerns about the priorities of some Salafis, such as the censorship of Egypt's Nobel laureate Naguib Mahfouz's novels, and the banning of women from driving.   He observed that  such statements (by the Salafis)  "will have tremendous economic and political implications."  He added that moderate Islamists would have  to "make clear that some of these voices ... are on the extreme fringes and they will not be the mainstream." He noted that the priorities of the new parliament should social problems such as poverty and illiteracy, rather than socio-cultural obsessions.

El Baradei particularly worried about the youth who took to the streets in the "Nile Revolution" that ousted Mubarak from power, noting that the aspirations of the liberal youth had  been "decimated." He said in an interview with the Associated Press, "The youth feel let down. They don't feel that any of the revolution's goals have been achieved." El Baradei therefore called on reformists and activist youth to keep up fight for the principles of the "Nile Revolution."  he said, "We'll have to keep fighting...the revolution is still a work in progress."

On Dec. 14, 2011, Egyptians went to the polls to vote  in the second stage of the parliamentary elections.  Election results from the  first two stages of the elections indicated that the Muslim Brotherhood would control between 40 percent and 50 percent of the seats in the People's Assembly.

Meanwhile, pro-democracy activists clashed with Egyptian security forces in Cairo. Dozens of people were reported to have been injured in the flurry of Molotov cocktails, rocks, and bricks that were hurled during the fracas between the activists and the security forces out the parliament building. Warning shots were fired and water cannons were fired in an attempt to disperse the crowds. According to activist blogger, Walid Nada, the outbreak of violence was sparked when the military arrested one of the pro-democracy demonstrators who was subsequently found after being badly beaten.

The unrest aside, there remained an uproar over the possible domination in the new parliament of regressive Islamists.  With such concerns at hand,  the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces made it clear that the executive privileges handed to interim Egyptian Prime Minister  Ganzouri were temporary.  The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces  said that many of Ganzouri's powers would be in force only until the establishment of the new  parliament (the military and judiciary being the exceptions).  While this news could be regarded as a boon for the Islamists, the  Supreme Council of the Armed Forces also announced that the military -- and not the parliament -- would  determine Egypt's new constitution. The rational for this move, according to Egyptian officials, was derived from a desire to retain stability in Egypt, and to recognize that an Islamist-dominated parliament was not really representative of all the Egyptian people. It was yet to be seen how people would respond to this news.

For its part, the  Muslim Brotherhood wasted no time in trying to shore up its moderate credentials with a spokesperson for the party, Mahmoud Ghazlan, saying, "We believe in a civil state rather than a military or theocratic state."  He continued, "If we reform some things,  it will be through persuasion and dialogue and an appropriate atmosphere for people to accept them without repression."   Mahmoud Ghazlan did warn that there would be a review of the peace treaty with Israel in the National Assembly, but he indicated that the party would work toward reforming provisions while at the same time respecting the treaty.  He said, "We respect the international treaties but if we find it's unfair we will amend it."

Note:

The official result of the elections showed that Islamist parties in Egypt captured about 70 percent of seats in the landmark parliamentary elections to the People's Assembly.  According to Egypt's Supreme Electoral Commission, the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party took 127 seats, representing 38 percent of the 332 party list seats available. The Salafist Nour Party, an ultra-conservative Islamist party, took 29 percent of the list seats, and the moderate Islamist Al-Wasat Party secured 3 percent. The liberal New Wafd and the secular Egyptian Bloc, both non-Islamist parties, took 21 percent, or 69 seats, collectively. With the conclusion of the elections, the first session of the new People's Assembly was to  be convened on March 17, 2012, while the new Shura Council would be convened on March 24, 2012.  As discussed above, a presidential election was to be held no later than June 2012.

Pacific: Kiribati

Brief Primer on Presidential Election in Kiribati
(Jan. 13, 2012)

A presidential election was originally set to take place on Dec. 30, 2011, but later changed to Jan. 13, 2011.  The presidential vote would occur in the aftermath of parliamentary elections, which were held in Kiribati in October 2011.  In those elections, the incumbent President Anote Tong's Pillars of Truth secured 15 seats, the United Coalition Party of Tetaua Taitai took 10 seats, and the Maurin Kiribati Pati of Rimeta Beniamina won three seats, with the remainder going to independents.

With the parliamentary vote completed, the new composition of the incoming parliament would determine the winner of the presidential contest. Typically, the presidency is determined on the basis of the parliamentary election results.  The president is elected to serve four-year terms.  The incumbent president was Anote Tong, who has served since  2003 and was elected  most recently during elections of 2007.  Among the other candidates were Dr. Tetaua Taitai, and the previous parliament’s opposition leader, Rimeta Beniamina.

The main issues at the heart of the 2012 presidential contest were Taiwanese and Chinese aid, copra prices and pensions.

Note that when the votes were counted, incumbent President Anote Tong won re-election with 42 percent of the total vote. Tetaui Taitai was his nearest challenger, securing 35 percent of the vote share.  Rimeta Beniamina took 23 percent. Tong carried 14 out of the 23 constituencies but his overall vote tally was significantly less than the 64 percent landslide victory he enjoyed in 2007.  Nevertheless, voter turnout in 2012 was high at 68 percent and the election was brought to a conclusion peacefully.

Note that President Anote Tong was officially sworn into office less than a week after winning a third term as the island nation's leader.

Asia: Taiwan

Primer on leadership and parliamentary elections in Taiwan
(Jan. 14, 2012)

The leadership and parliamentary elections in Taiwan were scheduled to be held on Jan. 14, 2012. The major candidates for Taiwan's leadership were Ma Ying-jeou and Wu Den-yih of the ruling Kuomintang party, Tsai Ing-wen and Su Jia-chyuan of the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party, as well as James Soong and Lin Ruey-shiung of the lesser opposition People First Party.

Polling data  weeks ahead of the presidential contest showed that Ma Ying-jeou of the ruling Kuomintang party and Tsai Ing-wen of the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party were ensconced in a tight race to the finish.

In many senses, the presidential contest was a subterranean referendum on relations with Beijing as it pitted Ma Ying-jeou, who favors closer ties with mainland China, against the pro-independence Tsai Ing-wen.  It should be noted that Tsai Ing-wen would make history as the first female leader of Taiwan,  if she won the election.

Such an end was not to come to pass, though.  Once the votes were counted, it was incumbent Taiwanese President Ma Ying Jeou who was victorious, capturing 51.6 percent of the vote share and winning re-election.  Tsai Ing-wen garnered 45.6 percent.

The election outcome was being regarded as a ratification of President  Ma Ying-jeou who oversaw  improved relations with Beijing, marked by a number of economic and trade agreements between Taipei and Beijing,  increased tourism thatbenefited the local economy of Taiwan, and the resumption of regular direct flights between Taiwan and the mainland.

Central Asia: Kazakhstan

Primer on Elections in Kazakhstan
(Jan. 15, 2012; Jan. 16, 2012)

In mid-November 2011,  Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev dissolved the lower chamber of parliament and called for early parliamentary elections to be held in January 2012. According to a presidential decree published on an official newspaper, the election from party lists will be held on Jan. 15, 2012, with other deputies to be chosen on January 16 by a non-partisan consultative body loyal to Nazarbayev.   The call for elections came when the lower chamber, dominated by Nazarbayev's ruling Nur Otan party, asked the president to dissolve the chamber in a move aimed at democratizing the political scene in the country. The dominance of the Nur Otan party has resulted in charges that Kazakhstan is a de facto" one party" state.  The call for amendments to the electoral law, along with the holding of fresh elections, were collectively aimed at opening up the political process in the country.

Indeed, months earlier, as political unrest and the demand for democratic reform extended across the Arab world, President Nazarbayev championed the notion of an early presidential election, aimed at ratifying his grip on power -- and avoiding the same fate as the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt who had long served their countries along quasi-autocratic lines.  He had initially called for a referendum to ratify an extension of his grip on power until 2020.  But instead, the president opted for the more democratic path.  At the time, President Nazarbayev said, "I am putting forward a proposal to hold an early presidential election, despite the fact that this will reduce my current term by nearly two years." He continued, "Based on the best interests of the country, I have decided not to hold a referendum." The parliamentary elections in 2012 --  especially if they went off in a more inclusive manner, with greater opposition participation -- would clearly be an extension of the semi-democratizing thrust in Kazakhstan.

The parliament of Kazakhstan consists of the Senate and Majlis (National Assembly). At stake in these elections were the seats in the Mazhilis (107 seats; 9 out of the 107 Mazhilis members are elected by the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, an appointed advisory body designed to represent the country's ethnic minorities; non-appointed members are popularly elected to serve five-year terms). Note that the election would be witnessed by international monitors.

Apart from the ruling Nur Otan party, led by President Nurlsutan Nazarbayev, the other parties contesting the election were the opposition Ak Zhol party, All National Social Democratic Party, Adilet party, Communist People's Party of Kazakhstan, Party of Patriots, and Auyl party.   Despite the participation of these various parties,  pre-election surveys showed that Nur Otan would likely hold onto power and retain its  majority in the Majilis.  The opposition  Ak Zhol party, however, was expected to do well at the polls and gain representation in parliament.

In keeping with these predictions, once the votes were counted it was clear that Nur Otan was headed for a landslide victory, having secured over 80 percent of the vote share.  It would, therefore, continue to dominate the lower house of parliament and would have control over about 83 seats in that body. That being said, Ak Zhol  garnered 7.46 percent of the vote, and the Communist People's Party received 7.2 percent.  Those two parties would also enter parliament, albeit with significantly less power given their lesser number of corresponding seats.  Indeed, Ak Zhol and the Communists would control eight seats respectively.

Speaking of his party's election victory and his political mandate, President Nurlsutan Nazarbayev said, "The people of Kazakhstan have once again given carte blanche to the party; they voted for unity, national stability, further development and the programs I had proposed."  Opposition parties, however, railed against the election results and continuing dominance of the ruling party.

Europe: Finland

Primer on 2012 Presidential Elections in Finland
(Jan. 22, 2012; second round on Feb. 5, 2012)

A presidential election in Finland was set for Jan. 22, 2012.  If no candidate receives a majority of the vote share, then a second election round would be held on Feb. 5, 2012.  Incumbent President Tarja Halonen was ineligible for re-election, having served the maximum two terms.

Accordingly, the contenders in the 2012 election race were as follows:  Sauli Niinistö of the National Coalition Party -- a former Minister of Finance and former Speaker of the Parliament; Paavo Lipponen of the Social Democratic Party -- a former Prime Minister and former Speaker of the Parliament; Paavo Väyrynen of the Center Party -- a former Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Minister for Foreign Trade; Paavo Arhinmäki of the Left Alliance -- incumbent Minister of Culture and Sport and party leader; Pekka Haavisto of the Green League -- a member of Parliament and former Minister of the Environment; Timo Soini of the True Finns -- a member of Parliament and party leader; Sari Essayah of the Christian Democrats -- a member of the European Parliament; and Eva Biaudet of the Swedish People's Party -- Ombudsman for Minorities and former Minister of Health and Social Services.

Polling data ahead of the election showed  Sauli Niinistö with a strong lead over the other candidates, having crossed the 50 percent mark in surveys conducted in December 2011. It should be noted that Niinistö's  National Coalition Party is one of the main Finnish political parties (along with the Social Democratic Party and the Center Party) and is liberal-conservative and strongly pro-Europe in orientation.

On election day, with the votes counted, it appeared that Niinistö  of the National Coalition Party did, indeed, gain the most votes; however, he fell short of an outright majority and was headed for a run-off election with the next top vote getter.  Results showed that Niinisto received 37 percent of the votes while Haavisto, the candidate of Green League, secured 18.8 percent. The other presidential candidates obtained various percentages of the vote share, ranging from as high as 17.5 percent to as little as 2.5 percent.  The outcome, though, was that Niinistö and Haavisto would compete in a second election round to decide who would become president.

Central Asia: Turkmenistan

Brief primer on 2012 Presidential Election in Turkmenistan
(Feb. 12, 2012)

A presidential election was set to be held in Turkmenistan on Feb. 12, 2012. The last presidential election was held in February 2007 and was won by Kurbanguly  Berdimuhammedov, when he was  elected to a five-year term by universal suffrage.  The incumbent president was seeking re-election.  Other candidates registered for the election contest were: Deputy Energy and Industry Minister Yarmukhammet Orazgulyev; Water Economy Minister Annageldy Yazmyradov; Rejep Bazarov, the deputy leader of Dasoguz Province; Kakageldy Abdullayev, the governor of Türkmenbasy District;  Esenguli Gaiypov, the head of the Lebaprurlushyk production association; Saparmyrat Batyrov, the director of the Geotepe textile mill;   Gurbanmamed Mallanyyzov, the manager of Türkmennebit). All of the candidates were  members of Turkmenistan's only political party -- the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan.

Middle East: Yemen

Primer on Presidential Election in Yemen
(Feb. 21, 2012)

At the start of 2012, Yemen was preparing for a future without outgoing President Ali Abdullah Saleh at the helm.

Earlier in late 2011, the United Nations was able to mediate an agreement between the Yemeni ruling party and the opposition factions, ultimately leading to a date for the signing of a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) peace plan.  That plan would ideally end the violence between the  pro-government and anti-government factions of that country, which were embroiled in conflict, and provide an exit strategy for Saleh to leave the political field in Yemen.

The GCC peace and power transfer agreement was ultimately signed on Nov. 23, 2011, in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh.  The development marked a significant political breakthrough on the Yemeni political scene with Saleh handing over power to his deputy, Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.  For his part, Hadi wasted no time in declaring that presidential elections would be held in Yemen on Feb. 21, 2012.  The state-run Saba news agency reported Hadi as having said,  "Based on the UN-backed Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative and its implementation mechanism, which both were signed in Riyadh on Nov. 23, we call an early presidential election to be held on Feb. 21 next year to elect a new president for the country."  Hadi also noted that the date was a concrete one, affirming that "no party has the right to annul or change the date."

Days later on Nov. 25, 2011, an interim consensus government was in the works with Mohamed Basindwa, a senior opposition leader, at the helm.  On Nov. 28, 2011, Vice President Hadi officially designated Mohamed Basindwa to form a new national unity government to replace the caretaker government of Ali Mohammed Mujawar.  By Dec. 10, 2011, a new coalition government, led by Basindwa,  was sworn into office before Vice President Hadi.

But in 2012, all attention would shift to the presidential realm, with the highly-anticipated presidential election in the offing on Feb. 21, 2012, as candidates would seek to lead the fragile political terrain of Yemen.  It should be noted that Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was expected to win the election.

Africa: Senegal

Brief primer on Presidential Election in Senegal
(Feb. 26, 2012)

A presidential election was set to be held in Senegal on Feb. 26, 2012. The last presidential election was held in 2007 and returned incumbent President Abdoulaye Wade to power.  He was now seeking another five years in the nation's top post.  His rivals for the presidency were expected to be former Prime Minister Moustapha Niasse who was endorsed by the Benno Siggil Senegal movement, former Prime Minister Idrissa Seck, and  Ousmane Tanor Dieng who was once a minister of state was serving as the current secretary general of the opposition Socialist Party.

Asia: Pakistan

Brief Primer on Senate Elections in Pakistan
(March 2, 2012)

In January 2012, Pakistan's Election Commission said that elections  would be held to fill 54 seats of the 104-member Senate.  Those elections to Pakistan's upper house of parliament were scheduled to be held on March 2, 2012.  Ahead of these elections, the expectation was that the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) would secure a majority in the Senate.

Europe/Asia: Russia

Primer on 2012 Presidential Elections in Russia
(March 4, 2012)

Note that a presidential election in Russia was expected to be held in 2012.  In September 2011, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin,  who previously served as president, said he intended to contest that election with an eye on returning to that post.  Current President Dmitry Medvedev indicated support for his mentor, Putin,  and that he would consider taking on the role of prime minister himself. President Medvedev said that he was interested in "engaging in the practical work of the government."  It was apparent that both Putin and Medvedev wanted to remain in the top posts of Russian government but did not want to contest elections against one another.  In mid-October 2011, the ruling United Russia Party confirmed that it would formally nominate Putin as its presidential candidate for the presidential election  scheduled to be held on March 4, 2012.  On Nov. 27, 2011, as expected, the United Russia party officially nominated Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as its presidential candidate in the forthcoming election.

For his part, Putin made clear that since he intended to resume his post as president, he expected the current president -- Medvedev -- to  hold the post of prime minister in the future.  Putin said, "I would like to once again stress that if the voters trust us with forming the government, that they vote for the United Russia and me as the Russian president... Dmitry Anatolyevich (Medvedev) would undoubtedly head the government." Putin called for  a national modernization plan to be implemented in Russia as part of an economic development strategy.  To that end, he noted, "Russia should end its dependence on oil and gas and perform a transition to the innovative development model."

On Dec. 11, 2011, Russian billionaire  and leading industrialist in the precious metals sector Mikhail Prokhorov announced  he would contest the presidential election to be held in 2012. Speaking at a news conference, Prokhorov  said,  "I made probably the most serious decision in my life. I will run for president." Prokhorov seemed realistic about his prospects at the polls against Putin. Indeed, Prokhorov acknowledged that his bid for the presidency was unlikely to receive popular support  in 2012, but that he could potentially see inroads over the course of "the next 10 or 15 years."

Another candidate was also known to be contesting the presidential election --  Sergei Mironov, leader of the center-left A Just Russia party.  Other candidates included Communist Party leader  Gennady Zyuganov and Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) chief Vladimir Zhirinovsky.  However,   Yabloko leader  Grigory Yavlinsky was barred from contesting the election as some of the signatures collected in the process of registration were deemed to be invalid.

Note that in January 2012, polling data showed diminishing support for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's presidential bid.  The state-run polling agency, VTsIOM, said that Putin commanded about 48 percent in popular support -- far less than his landslide-levels of support in previous elections.  Still,  that 48 percent -- while diminished in comparison to previous levels of support for Putin -- was nonetheless an improvement over VTsIOM's previous polling data, which showed  Putin with only 42 percent of voters' support. Another polling outfit, the independent Levada Center,  indicated  less optimistic election results for Putin.  Indeed, Levada Center forecast Putin to carry only 42 percent of the vote -- not enough for victory in the first round of voting.

Meanwhile, VTsIOM said that support for other candidates was holding fairly stable -- with 10 percent for Zyuganov, nine percent for Zhirinovsky, five percent for  Mironov, three percent for Prokhorov, and two percent for Yavlinsky.

Europe: Slovakia

Primer on Parliamentary Elections in Slovakia
(March 10, 2012)

Parliamentary elections were set to take place in Slovakia on March 10, 2012.  At stake were the 150 seats in the unicameral "Narodna Rada Slovenskej Republiky" or (National Council of the Slovak Republic).  In that body, members are elected for a four-year term by proportional representation.  Parties must receive at least five percent of the vote to win seats in parliament.

Background Information --

The current prime minister was Iveta Radicova at the helm of a  four center-right coalition composed of her Slovak Democratic and Christian Union-Democratic Party  (SKDU-DS), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and Most-Hid.

In recent years, a debt crisis has been raging across the euro zone countries of the European Union (EU), including Slovakia.  In 2010, Greece stood as "ground zero" of the crisis, evoking deep anxieties about that country defaulting on its debt.  Anxieties  also increased that a similarly disastrous fate could spread to other EU member states, such as Portugal, Spain, Italy and even Ireland.   These mostly  southern European economies were plagued not only by high deficits but also inherent structural economic weakness, which could affect other countries in the euro zone in something of a contagion.

By the close of September 2011, the Bundestag, or lower house of parliament in Germany approved the expansion of a rescue  fund for  Europe's heavily indebted countries, known as the European Financial Stability Facility.  The issue has been an extremely contentious one, with the participants of the global economy anxious for action to be taken in response to the debt crisis, but with German stakeholders incensed that they would be the major contributors to the rescue fund that would benefit countries, such as Greece.  Indeed, the debt crisis in Europe has led to instability in the international markets and political imbroglios across the euro zone.

As Europe’s largest economy, Germany's ratification of the rescue fund for the euro zone was a crucial step on the road to stabilization.  The scenario evoked political ramification for German Chancellor Angela Merkel; while Chancellor Merkel received the necessary support in the parliament to approve the bailout fund, the measure left her ruling coalition weakened and could well negatively affect her grip on power in Germany in the future.

Regardless of the domestic political ramifications, the German ratification of the expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility breathed necessary life into the euro stabilization entity.  With Austria and Finland also reaching agreements on the matter, only Slovakia was left to approve the measure.  In the case of Austria, the approval in that country's parliament came after vituperative debate, with strong disapproval emanating from the right wing of that Austrian parliament.   In Finland, approval required more than debate for passage.  Finland was seeking collateral as security for its contribution to the euro zone bailout fund, which Greece -- as the main beneficiary -- agreed to provide.  With this agreement forged, Finland agreed to withdraw its objections and move forward.

But concurrence  on the expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility from Slovakia was not expected to come easily.  Instead, members of the coalition government warned that it would block approval in that country.  In a nod to Slovaks who eschew the notion of a less wealthy Central European country having to pay for the mistakes of the more wealthy Greeks, the Freedom and Solidarity Party of Slovakia -- a participant in Prime Minister Iveta Radicova's coalition government -- had promised to oppose the move.  Nevertheless, with Slovakia positioned to be the main holdout in a scheme intended to stabilize the entire euro zone, there were high hopes for a compromise. Speaking of this responsibility, Radicova said, "It is the entire euro zone system which is under threat at the moment, not just a few small countries." But it was becoming more likely that Radicova's government might fall, despite the Slovakian prime minister's ardent advocacy of compromise in the interests of regional solidarity.

Note that on Oct. 11, 2011, the parliament of Slovakia voted down the euro zone bailout expansion plan.  Since the vote was also linked to a confidence motion, the center-right government of Prime Minister Iveta Radicova was also toppled in the vote, making the Slovakian government the latest political casualty in the economic debt crisis rocking Europe.   As expected, the junior coalition partner, Freedom and Solidarity, was the proverbial "fly in the ointment ," as it abstained from the vote in order to register opposition to less wealthy Slovakia having to cover the debts of richer countries.  A new vote was expected to take place to pass the EFSF expansion package, where it was likely to pass with support from the left wing opposition.  To that end, the opposition was saying that it would court offers  from the toppled government for its support for the rescue fund. Meanwhile, even though Robert Fico -- former head of government and current opposition leader -- was indicating possible affirmative support in the bailout vote, he was simultaneously anticipating a return to the helm in future elections. To this end, Fico  said, "We're saying 'no' to a rightist government, but we're saying 'yes' to the rescue fund."

A new vote took place two days later on Oct. 13, 2011,  and with support from the left wing opposition, the outgoing government of Radicova was able to secure the ratification of the proposed expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility. As well, a schedule for snap elections was put forth for March 2012, as noted above.

Americas: El Salvador

Brief Primer on Parliamentary Elections in El Salvador
(March 11, 2012)

Parliamentary elections were set to take place in El Salvador on March 11, 2012.  At stake were the 84 seats in the unicameral Asamblea Nacional (National Assembly).  Members were elected to three-year terms; 64 are elected in multi-seat constituencies, while 20 elected by proportional representation.

In the previous elections, the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMNL) won the most seats, as expected, albeit not an outright majority. Even without an outright working majority, FMLN had the distinction of being the single strongest political force in parliament.  On the other side of the equation, while the  right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) A no longer held the most seats, its conservative alliance still held sway in the parliament. It was yet to be seen what party or bloc would win the day in March 2012.

Africa: The Gambia

Brief Primer on Parliamentary Elections in The Gambia
(March 24, 2012)

Parliamentary elections were set to take place in The Gambia  on March 24, 2012.  At stake were the 53 seats in the unicameral National Assembly.  Forty eight (48) members are  elected by popular vote, five are appointed by the president.  All members of parliament  serve five-year terms.  In the last elections held in 2007, the ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction or APRC of President Yahya A. J. J. Jammeh won the overwhelming majority of the seats.  With the president himself re-elected to power in November 2011 by landslide victory, a strong performance by his party was anticipated.

The main political parties in The Gambia  were as follows: Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction or APRC [Yahya A. J. J. JAMMEH] (the ruling party); Gambia People's Democratic Party or GPDP [Henry GOMEZ]; National Alliance for Democracy and Development or NADD [Halifa SALLAH]; National Convention Party or NCP [Sheriff DIBBA]; National Reconciliation Party or NRP [Hamat N. K. BAH]; People's Democratic Organization for Independence and Socialism or PDOIS [Halifa SALLAH]; United Democratic Party or UDP [Ousainou DARBOE]

Middle East: Iran

Primer on Parliamentary Elections in Iran
(March 29, 2012)

Parliamentary elections were set to be held in Iran on March 29, 2012.  At stake were the 290 seats in the unicameral "Majlis-e-Shura e Eslami" (Islamic Consultative Assembly).  Member are elected by popular vote from single-seat constituencies to serve four-year terms; all candidates must be approved by the "Shura-e-Nigahban" (Council of Guardians).

The last elections for the Majlis (parliament) of Iran were held on March 14, 2008.  The parties in contention for the  available parliamentary seats were the Conservatives, the Reformists, the Independents, and other unnamed contenders. With the votes counted on election day, it was clear that the Conservatives would retain control of parliament, as expected.    The Conservatives' strong showing was partially due to their performance in the Iranian capital of Tehran.  However, it should be noted that not all the Conservatives were pro-Ahmadinejad; in fact, a significant number of them were viewed as critics of the president.  Despite the fact that many of their candidates were disqualified by the Guardian Council, the Reformists also had some reason to celebrate since they enjoyed a modest increase in parliamentary representation.  There were also some Independents who won representation in parliament. The main outcome of the election was the fact that President  Ahmadinejad could be faced with a lack of cooperation in parliament.  This was  due to the parliamentary increase in the number of Reformists and critical  Conservatives.  Western powers criticized the election as neither free nor fair and criticized the decision to disqualify many Reformist candidates.

Ahead of the 2012 elections, and coming in the wake of the Arab Spring in the region, Iranian authorities were ensuring that no strong voices for the opposition would be able to advocate for change.  Already, well-known opposition leader and activist, Mehdi Karroubi, who had come to the fore at the height of the reformist anti-government uprising, known as the "Green Revolution," following the contested presidential elections of 2009, had disappeared.  It should be noted that the "Green Revolution" ended unsuccessfully with the deaths and incarceration of opposition activists, and a harsh crackdown by the theocratic and totalitarian Iranian authorities on dissent.

In 2011, according to the opposition website Kaleme, both Karroubi and the "Green Revolution" leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, were taken to the Heshmatiyeh prison in the capital city of Tehran. They were respectively detained after calling on the Iranian people to once again take to the streets in demonstrations.  Clearly, in an effort to short-circuit any displays of anti-government dissent, the Iranian authorities wasted no time in incarcerating the two opposition icons, whom they have accused of treason and threatened with execution. Now, at the close of August 2011,  Iranian and international human rights activists were expressing "extreme concern" over the welfare of Karroubi, who had been missing for as many as six weeks.

In an interview with CNN, Hadi Ghaemi, the director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, said: "We are extremely concerned for the health and well-being of Karroubi, who is 74 years old, and no one has heard from him for six weeks, not his wife, any family or associates."  Ghaemi also expressed fear that Karroubu was being subject to coercive "brainwashing" while in custody.

Now in 2012 ahead of the parliamentary contests, Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who backed opposition leader Mousavi after the 2009 post-election uprising, was sentenced to six months in jail for propaganda against the state.

Africa: Guinea

Primer on Guinea's parliamentary elections
(originally slated for Dec. 29, 2011; delayed until March 2012)

In June 2011, Guinea's National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that the country's parliamentary elections would be held in November 2011. An earlier date of March 2010 had been expected but obviously did not transpire as planned. By September 2011, the date for the impending elections was again changed with CENI now advancing a date of Dec. 29, 2011, for the legislative polls.

At stake in these elections would be the unicameral "Assemblée Nationale" (National Assembly). Ahead of the 2008 junta, the National Assembly was composed of 114 members who are elected by popular vote to serve five-year terms. Typically, 76 members are elected by proportional representation, and 38 are elected in single-seat constituencies. Note that the legislature was dissolved by junta leader Moussa Dadis Camara in December 2008 . In February 2010, the Transition Government appointed a 155 member National Transition Council (CNT) that has since acted in the legislature's place.

Now in 2011, ahead of the elections, there were concerns about the stability of the country, given the political turmoil that rocked the country from 2008 through 2010 when a presidential election was ultimately held. Still, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission expressed optimism that the leaders of Guinea would resolve their outstanding differences amicably ahead of the elections to be held at the close of the year. By December 2011, however, the country's electoral commission announced that the vote would be delayed to allow time for political dialogue between the opposition and the government. While no new date was officially brought forth for the election, the vote was expected to take place in January 2012.  But January 2012 came and it was soon announced that the elections would be delated until March 2012.

Europe: France

Primer on Presidential Elections in France
(April 22, 2012; May 6, 2012)

Presidential elections were to be held in France in 2012.  A first round was scheduled to take place on April 22, 2012, with a second round to ensue on May 6, 2012.

President Nicolas Sarkozy, the center-right leader of the ruling Union for a Popular Movement or UMP, was seeking a second successive term in office.

But the 2010 regional elections was something of a warning to him with his ruling center-right UMP suffering massive defeat at the polls. That election outcome was regarded as a repudiation of the reform policies undertaken by President Sarkozy and the UMP government since coming to power. The combination of high unemployment and the public's furor over changes to the pension system appeared to be driving the mass discontent. No doubt Sarkozy was hoping 2012 would signal increased support for him and for his party.

President Sarkozy could potentially be helped by the news that his Italian-born wife, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, was expecting a child. The human interest and wholesome family oriented aspect of this news -- especially juxtaposed against the scandal unfolding for the Socialists' top contender (Dominique Strauss-Kahn) -- may have potentially inflated Sarkozy's popularity ratings, if only for a temporary period. But Sarkozy's political fate would not be helped by a corruption scandal, known as the Karachi affair, which implicated some of  his close allies.  The Karachi affair goes back close to two decades  and involved three of Sarkozy's stalwarts.  At issue were allegations that the three individuals received kickbacks to secure the sale of three submarines to Pakistan in 1994,  and used the money to finance the presidential campaign of former Prime Minister Edouard Balladur in 1995.  Although Sarkozy has said that he was  unaware of the situation, the matter could taint his already less than stellar political prospects.

One of Sarkozy's  rivals within his own party, former French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said he would also be contesting the elections as an independent candidate.   De Villepin quit the  UMP has  been known to have a contentious relationship with Sarkozy.  It was unlikely that  De Villepin would win the presidency, however, he could secure enough votes from the center-right members of the electorate to endanger Sarkozy's hopes of making it to a second round.

Another key candidate would be far-right candidate Marine Le Pen of National Front.  While Le Pen's extremist stance was not expected to help her secure victory, she could potentially secure her name on the ballot in the second round, should De Villepin's suspected strategy prove successful. Her father, Jean Marie Le Pen, gained a fourth place finish in the 2007 elections -- not an unimpressive result for a candidate with a radical platform.

Another aspirant to the presidency was the centrist politician and the head of the Democratic Movement, Francois Bayrou, who would again attempt to win the presidency. Bayrou promised to wage a "campaign of truth."  In the 2007 election, Bayrou achieved a respectable third place finish.

Of course, no discussion of the impending French election would be complete without the inclusion of Francois Hollande, the person who won the nomination of the French Socialists in the aftermath of the controversy involving the former head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss Kahn.  Hollande won the Socialists' primary election against Martine Aubry and quickly enjoyed the support of a united Socialist Party, that had its eye on the Elysee Palace -- especially in the aftermath of a historic victory months earlier when the Socialists ousted the UMP and won control of the upper house of parliament for the first time in over half a century.   At the time of his nomination victory, Hollande promised to champion the demands of the French citizenry  who could "no longer bear" President Sarkozy's policies.

Survey data  earlier in 2011 measuring the intentions of voters in the 2012 presidential race showed that incumbent President  Sarkozy was polling in third place  -- even behind far-right leader Marine Le Pen. As such, Sarkozy's priority was to defeat Le Pen in the first round and then to beat the Socialist candidate (Hollande) who would ultimately be on the ballot. This would be a difficult task, given the fact that Sarkozy's most generous approval ratings showed him in the 30-40 percent range among the French citizenry.

Meanwhile, polling data in October 2011 was showing Hollande positioned to beat incumbent Sarkozy with 35 percent votes versus 25 percent for the incumbent president. Le Pen was in third place with 16 percent.  In December 2011, with Villepin in the race, Socialist Hollande had 31.5 percent, Sarkozy was holding steady with 26 percent, Le Pen had dropped to 13.5 percent, and Villepin had one percent.  By January 2012, polls continued to show Sarkozy headed for defeat.  He and far-right National Front Leader, Le Pen, were splitting the conservative vote, while the Socialists' candidate, Hollande, was maintaining his lead.

Faced with the prospect of defeat, Sarkozy said that he would leave politics.  According to a report by Radio France Internationale, Sarkozy said, "I'd rather be a Carmelite monk than carry on in politics if I lose. Whatever happens, I'm at the end of the road.  For the first time in my life, I'm confronted with the end of my career."

Middle East: Algeria

Brief primer on parliamentary elections in Algeria
(May 2012)

Parliamentary elections were expected to be held in Algeria in May 2012

At stake would be the seats in one of the chambers of the bicameral parliament, which consists of the National People's Assembly (Al-Majlis al-Sha'abi al-Watani / Assemble Populaire Nationale) and the Council of the Nation (Al-Majlis al-Umma / Conseil de la Nation).

In the National People's Assembly, there are 389 members who are elected by popular vote to serve five-year terms.  This was the chamber where seats would be up for grabs in these elections. The last elections were held in May 2007 and the National Liberation Front (Front pour la Libération Nationale or FLN),  along with its allies in the ruling coalition, secured control over 249 seats in total -- a majority of the 380-390 seats in the People's National Assembly.

It should be noted that there are 114 seats in the Council of the Nation; one-third of the members are appointed by the president, two-thirds are elected by indirect vote. Members serve six-year terms but the constitution requires that half the council be renewed every three years.  The last election was held in 2009 and the FLN won the plurality of the seats.

In early 2012, ahead of the May contest, over 150 Islamists in Algeria were in the process of launching a political initiative to contest the elections  with a united list. They were hoping for a big win for their ranks and intensified political influence -- something they believed they have been denied for years.

Editor's Note:

Algeria's civil war began when the military canceled the second round of legislative elections in 1992, in which the extremist Islamic Salvation Front (AIS) -- the armed wing of the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) -- was the expected winner. Insurgents and government forces then became embroiled for years in a bloody and violent conflict, which left at least 200,000 people dead according to government statistics.  In recent years, the country has seen some degree of calm and the return to stability.  This level of stability has been helped to some degree by the government's decision to adopt a national reconciliation policy. However, since 2007, an increasing number of violent incidences by extremist  Islamists have augured a disturbing shift in Algeria's political terrain.   The FIS, now reconstituted in new form as al-Qaida in the Maghreb, has been blamed for much of the recent violence.  The start of 2011 brought civil unrest, sparking anxieties about the stability of Algeria.  One key problem for the government of Algeria has been the national state of emergency, which was in effect for about two decades, since the aforementioned civil war.  While the government has said that the state of emergency was needed to ensure national security, critics have accused of the authorities of exploiting the state of emergency, to the detriment of civil liberties.  It was hoped that an end to this measure would assuage the people of Algeria taking to the streets in anti-government protests.

North Africa: Egypt

Brief Primer on Presidential Election in Egypt
(Before June 2012)

In mid-January  2012, Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announced that candidates hoping to contest the forthcoming presidential election could commence the process of registering their candidacies.  While there was no actual date finalized for the presidential contest, there had been suggestions that the vote might be held in April 2012.  That being said, Egyptian officials soon were indicating that the vote might take place two months later  in June 2012 instead.

One of the most well-known contenders was the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and a current opposition leader and presidential contender, Mohammed El Baradei.  A vociferous voice for reform, El Baradei warned against the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists in the recent parliamentary elections and  said that  Egypt needed to be rescued  from the precipice of crisis.

By January 2012, though, El Baradei was making it known that he was withdrawing from the field of presidential contenders. Citing the lack of real democratic reform since the Nile Revolution a year earlier,  El Baradei said, "My conscience does not permit me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless it is within a democratic framework."  He also accused the remnants of the previous regime of continuing to control the country and continuing the rein of repression.

A less well-known presidential contender, Hesham Al-Bastawissy, had already announced his withdrawal from Egypt's presidential race, saying that a violent crackdown by transitional authorities  had "stripped legitimacy" from the interim ruling military council. Bastawissy said he would only remain in the presidential race if a presidential council took over from the military council.

Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, an independent presidential aspirant  formerly allied with the Muslim Brotherhood member, remained in the race and was quickly becoming regarded as something of a frontrunner.

Hazem Salah Abu-Ismail, a favored presidential contender of the Salafists, was active during various flare ups of activism in Tahrir Square. He was demanding the declaration of an actual date for the presidential elections.

Other hopefuls included Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, and Egypt's first female presidential candidate -- former talk show host, Bothaina Kamel.

Americas: United States

Special Elections Report:

Republicans begin process of choosing a nominee to contest election against President Obama

Summary:

Republican base voters  began the process of choosing the party's presidential nominee.  That process started with the Iowa caucuses and then  followed with key primary contests in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Santorum won Iowa, Romney took New Hampshire, and Gingrich claimed victory in South Carolina, leaving the Republican contest wide open.  The Republican contenders were hoping for a chance to contest the presidential election in November 2012 against incumbent President Barack Obama who was seeking re-election.  Also at stake in November 2012 would be control over the two houses of Congress.

2012 Elections Primer:

General elections were scheduled to take place in the United States on the first Tuesday in November 2012.  At stake would be the presidency and the composition of the two houses of the bicameral  Congress.  The president, along with the vice president, is elected to a four-year term. Since 1951, the president has been limited to two terms by a constitutional amendment. There are 100 members of the Senate; they are elected for six-year terms in dual-seat constituencies, with one-third of the seats being contested every two years. There are 435 members of the House of Representatives; they are elected for two-year terms in single-seat constituencies.

At the presidential level, incumbent President Barack Obama  and Vice President Joseph Biden were seeking another term in office. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden on the Democratic ticket won a decisive victory over their Republican counterparts John McCain and Sarah Palin on Nov. 4, 2008, with 52.7 percent of the vote share to 45.9 percent.  Obama-Biden also garnered a record popular vote count of close to 67 million with McCain-Palin acquiring 58 million. Obama-Biden won an overwhelming 365 electoral votes including one Congressional district of Nebraska, while McCain-Palin carried only 173 electoral votes. Barack Obama and Joseph Biden were inaugurated into office on Jan. 20, 2009.  Obama took office as the 44th president of the United States and the first African American to ever hold that post in the nation's history.

The Republican Nomination Process

In 2012, President Obama would be challenged by a yet-to-be-determined Republican nominee.  Among the likely winners of that nomination was former Governor Willard "Mitt" Romney, a billionaire who was trying for the second time to win the Republican Party's mantle. His previous attempt in 2008 ended in failure as John  Mc Cain won the nomination that year.  Helped by limitless personal funds, as well as the blessing of "establishment Republicans," Romney was widely regarded as the de facto "front-runner" even though he could not seem to get past the 25 percent mark among Republican base voters who did not trust the former Massachusetts governor's past moderate positions.  Romney's constant lurching to the political right on immigration, the economy, and foreign policy, was presumably aimed at burnishing his conservative credentials.

Also hoping to grab the Republican nomination was former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who was forced to resign from office more than a decade prior under a cloud of misconduct allegations.  The early months of Gingrich's candidacy as a presidential contender were characterized by difficulty as staffers quit en masse over his undisciplined campaign, and as Gingrich appeared unable to attract donors. That said, strong debate performances breathed new life into Gingrich's campaign.  As well, time appeared to have erased Republican voters' memory of Gingrich's unfortunate past.  With the conservative base eager to find an alternative to Romney, and given their mistrust of the former Massachusetts' governor's conservative credentials, the base Republican bloc  soon locked onto  Gingrich as the favored "anti-Romney" option.  In this way, the former House Speaker was boosted to the front of the pack for several weeks.  But front-runner status in a volatile field also meant that Gingrich was subject to relentless attacks by his rivals, and the barrage of negative advertisements eventually took a toll, eroding Gingrich's polling advantage in key states such as Iowa.

Iconoclast Representative Ron Paul of Texas was also contesting the primary contests. As with Romney, this was another attempt by Ron Paul to gain his party's nomination after a failed 2008 bid.  Earlier in the Republicans' primary campaign,  Ron Paul was regarded as something of a "long shot" for the nomination.  While his anti-spending economic message had a strong following among base voters, his isolationist foreign policy stance was not regarded as the norm among militaristic Republicans.  That said, by December 2011, with Gingrich losing favor and with the anti-Romney camp looking for a new option, Ron Paul saw his fortunes change as he  catapulted from outsider status to polling relatively strongly in Iowa and in New Hampshire.

Also contesting the Republican nomination were Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, former Governor Jon Huntsman of Utah, former Governor Gary Johnson of New Mexico, former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, and Georgia businessman, Herman Cain.

Bachmann, Perry, and Huntsman -- all polling in single digits or low teens -- were not expected to be likely winners of the nomination, although the Iowa caucus has proved in the past to yield surprising results.

Once riding high in the polls, Perry's poor debate performances appeared to have negatively affected his prospects, despite an ambitious advertising campaign in Iowa aimed at wooing socially conservative and ultra-religious voters there.  Bachmann benefited from some good early debate performances, which helped her rise in the polls for a temporary period.  Some unfortunate and factually-challenged statements appeared to have been the death knell in her case, and she did not recover her earlier level of  popularity.

Santorum had initially commanded limited support among early primary and caucus voters, but as the field of likely prospects dwindled, and with Romney still not "sealing the deal" with social conservatives, the intensely-conservative former senator from Pennsylvania was surging in the polls in Iowa, even moving past former front-runner Gingrich.  Could Santorum pull off a coup as the last "anti-Romney" option left standing in the field before Iowa?

Huntsman's moderate credentials, embrace of science, and former post in the Obama administration, collectively appeared to have doomed his prospects for the Republican Party's nomination.  In fact,  analysts were whispering that he was not a conceivable option for the base voters in a party that has drifted to the far right politically.  Johnson was in similar territory and eventually dropped out of the race, saying he would instead seek the nomination of the Libertarian Party. Roemer has similarly never  been considered a possible winner for the Republican nomination due to low popularity among base voters.

For his part, Cain held his place in the limelight as voters flocked to him as the anti-Romney option in the autumn of 2011; a series of salacious allegations by women against Cain forced the  head of Godfathers Pizza to withdraw from the race, though.

That all being said, the contest at the start of 2012 -- just days ahead of the Iowa caucus -- was no longer a two-man battle between Gingrich and Romney.  Ron Paul, instead, was topping the polling charts in Iowa; Santorum was surging exponentially from single digits to competitive status; and Romney was  consolidating support in a state he had not initially hoped to win.  A barrage of negative advertising against Gingrich, paid for by Romney's "super pacs" suggested that, in reality,  the the former Massachusetts governor was investing in a victory in Iowa.

Late in the night on Jan. 3, 2012, in Iowa, after some 120,000  cast their preferences, the votes were counted. As expected, it was a tight race to the end between Romney, Paul and Santorum.

After the votes were calculated, Paul clinched the third place finish and earned  the credentials as a serious contender to move onto New Hampshire.

Romney eked out an eight vote advantage over Santorum, raising questions as to why -- after his "super pacs" spent so much money in Iowa, and after he spent several years running for president -- he could not command a more convincing victory.  In fact, Romney somewhat underperformed his 2008 primary election result in Iowa in  2012.  The answer, of course, was that the Republican base was simply not "sold" on the notion of Romney as the party's standard bearer.

But the real story was that of Santorum who managed to stake out a virtual tie and a symbolic victory in Iowa, and would now become the new conservative star in the race.  In many senses, a desperate Republican base was looking for an alternative to Romney, and Santorum was one of the few core conservatives who was not being sullied by negative attacks a la Gingrich.  Thus, Santorum's success in Iowa was partially due to the reality of the political dynamics. A heartfelt victory speech, which was favorably compared by pundits to Romney's pro forma address, was expected to help strengthen Santorum as he moved on to the next set of primaries.  Santorum certainly indicated that he was in the race to win the nomination, saying to his supporters, "Game on!"

Santorum's prospects could be helped by an angry and passionate Gingrich, who made it clear that his new mission would be to destroy Romney.  Incensed about Romney's gratuitous use of "super pacs" to attack him (Gingrich) in negative advertising in Iowa, Gingrich vociferously warned Republican voters that Romney's executive experience would allow him (Romney) to "effectively manage the decay of America."  The pithy phraseology by Gingrich augured a hirtherto unknown   assault on Romney, the self-described front runner.  With two debates coming up before New Hampshire -- a platform that tended to favor Gingrich -- there was speculation about possible changes in the dynamics of  the race.

Bachmann however, would not be moving on to the next set of primaries.  A poor showing in Iowa -- a  "must win" state for a woman born there -- made it clear that her time in the presidential spotlight was over.  Perry initially indicated that he would be returning to Texas to "reassess" his prospects but later declared that he would stay in the race until South Carolina.  Perry certainly had no shortage of funds, and with Santorum opening the race again to the voters' considerations, the Texas governor was hoping for a rebirth on the national political stage.  Huntsman, despite a dismal showing in a state he had never contested in the first place, had his attention trained on New Hampshire and Romney.  He pilloried Romney for being the choice of the Republican establishment, and dismissed an endorsement of Romney by John McCain, saying:  "No one cares."

For his part, polling data showed Romney with a commanding lead heading into New Hampshire.  Coming off his quasi-victory in Iowa,  and with a decisive victory in New  Hampshire in the offing,  Romney was in a strong position to fairly make the claim that he was the presumptive nominee, despite  challenges to his ascendancy.   Those conservative challengers, though, were fragmented rather than consolidated, with Romney being the obvious beneficiary.

As discussed here, several candidates ousted Romney from his top tier position only to slip from the apex weeks later.  Romney, while apparently holding a consistent quarter of the likely Republican base vote, was having trouble augmenting that support in a party that had moved ever to the right due to the machinations of the populist and extremist elements of the "Tea Party" wing.  However, Romney was retaining a plurality of the vote share -- if not a majority -- thanks in part to fragmentation or vote splitting among more conservative candidates.  As well, Romney  was now "peaking" at precisely the right time.  Perhaps Republican base voters were growing more resigned to the possibility that he would be their standard bearer in November 2012.

Cognizant of this strong positioning for some time, a Romney staffer in an interview with New York magazine's John Heilemann said in late December 2011, "The dynamics couldn't  be better for us ... I don’t see any scenario where we’re not the nominee."  That being said, as aforementioned, the unlikely and unexpected tie for Iowa victory by Santorum was a clear illustration that the Republican Party's base was not about to bless Romney's nomination in a perfunctory manner.

Attention, therefore, was focused further down the line on South Carolina and Florida where a number of standpoint conservative candidates, such as Santorum and Perry,  hoped to open up the race.  Gingrich was not to be forgotten either, and he could be buoyed by forthcoming debate performances forward to competitive placement in  New Hampshire and South Carolina respectively.  And of course, Ron Paul could make the contest a long one if he could continue to rally youth support in later caucus states.  Huntsman's performance in New Hampshire would give an indication of whether or not moderate voters might flock to him rather than Romney.

A particularly feisty debate on the NBC show, Meet the Press, seemed to have brought out some more fire from Romney's rivals who were now taking the opportunity to challenge the front runner. That being said, days ahead of the New Hampshire contest, Romney retained a healthy lead although he was seeing some erosion in his polling numbers.  Ron Paul and Huntsman were on the hunt for a desirable second place finish, while Gingrich and Santorum were holding double digits.  It was clear that Romney's slight erosion in New Hampshire was coming from a suddenly fragmenting faction of moderate voters who were  now starting to move towards Hunstman.  There was also some minor momentum for Gingrich and Santorum from among the conservative base.

As expected,  Romney won easily in New Hampshire, with about 36 percent of the vote share; Ron Paul came in second with a healthy 24 percent; Huntsman made a respectable showing in third place. For Romney, the victory solidified his position as the prohibitive favorite of the Republican race and augmented his momentum going into South Carolina.

With Romney's victory ratified in New Hampshire, attention shifted southward.  Romney's rivals were certainly not in any mood to concede the nomination to the man who would very likely become the Republican standard bearer of 2012.  Instead, all the contenders appeared to be moving south to the Palmetto state where standpoint conservatives hoped to strengthen their hand, the ongoing problem of a fragmented "anti-Romney" contingent notwithstanding.  The calculation was that a standpoint conservative could stop Romney's advance in South Carolina.  To that end, Santorum, with the blessing of evangelical Christian leaders, took a stronger tone in his criticisms of Romney during debates.  As well, Gingrich warned that South Carolina would be the  "Armageddon" of the Republican race. He warned that his campaign would not be backing down from its assault on Romney's record, saying, "We'll be drawing a sharp contrast between aGeorgia Reagan conservative and a Massachusetts moderate who's pro-gun control, pro-choice, pro-tax increase, pro-liberal judge, and the voters of South Carolina will have to look and decide."

In the Palmetto state, though, a week ahead of the primary,  Romney was gaining support in conservative Christian South Carolina -- conventionally understood as hospitable terrain for  the likes of Santorum, Gingrich and Perry.  Romney would be helped by the announcement in the middle of January 2012 that Hunstman was withdrawing from the race and endorsing a fellow moderate Mormon.

In fact, with Huntsman no longer drawing some of the moderate Republican vote, and with Romney now carrying the aura of the  prohibitive favorite, it was not surprising that he was rising in the national polls.  Gingrich, Santorum and Paul were vying for second place but trailed significantly behind Romney.  Confident of his position as the presumptive nominee, the former Massachusetts governor declared, "I think I'm going to be the nominee."

But in the days ahead of the South Carolina primary, attacks by a "super pac" allied with Gingrich took aim at Romney's background at the venture capital firm, Bain Capital.  The advertisements tore away at Romney's perceived strong suit -- business acumen -- and accused him of hurting employees at struggling firms taken over by Bain Capital.  Compounding Romney's problem was the growing chorus for him to release his tax returns.  His refusal to do so raised suspicion that since he made most of his money on investment income, he likely paid a significantly lower tax rate as compared to most struggling Americans. His dismissive admission that he likely only paid taxes at a 15 percent rate (as compared with the 26 percent rate paid by President Obama), and that he made "only" $370,000 on speaking fees did little to stem the political bleeding in a candidate that was riding high one day, and now suffering in the court of public opinion.

The political toll began to show in the polling data, which showed erosion for Romney.  While Romney  was losing support at the national level, it was the erosion of support in South Carolina -- where he was hoping to pull off a third consecutive victory -- that was cause for concern.

The date Jan. 19, 2012, would turn out to be a significant one in the 2012 Republican primary race, as it may well have shifted the dynamic entirely.  Political analysts predicted that chapters in memoirs of the election would likely be titled simply, "January 19, 2012."

The day began with the news that Romney did not win the Iowa caucus.  In fact, Santorum appeared to have secured that victory once the official vote count had been certified. The news was less a boost for Santorum than a blow to Romney.  No longer could Romney claim that he set a precedent by winning the first two states -- something that had bolstered his image as the inevitable nominee. Instead, he could only claim to have won in friendly territory of New Hampshire.  The fact that he was bleeding support in South Carolina, as discussed above, was not helping his cause.

Later in the morning on the same day, the news did not get better for Romney as Perry decided to withdraw from the presidential race and endorse Gingrich.  Indeed, Perry offered a fulsome endorsement saying that Gingrich "has the heart of a conservative" and the courage to tell "Washington interests to take a hike."  It was clear that this message would resonate positively with ultra-conservative Republican base voters.

But Gingrich had problems of his own.  His former wife, whom he divorced while she was battling cancer to marry his mistress, said in an interview with ABC News that Gingrich had asked her to accept an "open marriage."  She also noted that around the same period, Gingrich delivered a speech on family values.  She charged that he was "unfit" to serve as president, given this salacious personal history.

There was some expectation that this news would serve a death knell to Gingrich's rising political fortune.  However, during his endorsement speech, Perry tried to inoculate his fellow southerner saying, "Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?" Rallying the Christian conservatives who would cast ballots in South Carolina in only two days, Perry continued, "There is forgiveness for those who seek God."

All eyes were on the Republican debate later that night when viewers would see how Romney and Gingrich respectively responded to the latest developments, and if Santorum and Paul could themselves benefit politically.  The debate showcased Gingrich's political cunning as he deftly turned the very first question about his infidelity into an attack on the media.  Gingrich said that he was "appalled" that the moderator, John King, would start the debate by raising the question of his marital fidelity, characterized his ex-wife's allegations as "trash," and cast himself as the victim of "personal pain," which he said was an emotion shared by everyone in the room.  Indeed, the Republican voters in the room appeared to respond favorably and gave the former House Speaker a standing ovation and